VZCZCXRO3706
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0309/01 0651417
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 061417Z MAR 09 ZDK CTG NUMEROUS SERVICES
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3170
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000309 
 
DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E, DRL 
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR EAID KPKO KDEM KAWC UNSC ASEC
SU 
SUBJECT: GENERALLY CALM REACTIONS TO ICC ARREST WARRANT FOR 
PRESIDENT BASHIR AND EXPULSION OF INGOS 
 
REF:  KHARTOUM 306 
 
KHARTOUM 00000309  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Immediately following the March 4 announcement 
that the International Criminal Court (ICC) had issued an arrest 
warrant against President Omar al Bashir for war crimes and crimes 
against humanity, Emboffs reached out to a range of contacts for a 
sampling of reactions.  Most evinced a cautious, "wait and see" 
attitude to the situation.  NCP-affiliated contacts justified the 
expulsion of international humanitarian NGOs and argued for a UNSC 
Article 16 suspension of the indictment.  Darfur IDPs are worried at 
what the NGO expulsion will mean for humanitarian assistance. 
Separately, the family of Islamist leader Siddiq Al-Turabi report 
that he is alive and in reasonably good condition in custody in Port 
Sudan.  END SUMMARY. 
 
SPLM Considering Its Options 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶2.  (SBU) Yasser Arman, Deputy Secretary of the SPLM for the 
Northern Sector, told poloff that First Vice President Salva Kiir 
arrives in Khartoum to meet with GNU President Bashir March 5 to 
discuss the expulsion of international humanitarian NGOs from Sudan 
(reftel).  Arman added that the SPLM would participate in a Crisis 
Management Meeting on Friday, March 6 and would hold meetings with 
their representatives in South Darfur state.  CDA Fernandez will 
meet with Arman March 6 for a read-out on these meetings. 
Democratic Process Will Stay on Track 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶3.  (SBU) According to National Election Commission Deputy Chairman 
Abdalla Abdalla, it is "very difficult" to have a clear picture now 
about what will happen next.  He opined that the GoS has received 
the announcement of the arrest warrant of Al-Bashir "quietly," and 
while there were some  anti-ICC demonstrations,  he doesn't think 
that they will continue.  Abdalla characterized the GoS' work now as 
a "diplomatic and political struggle" to try and persuade e the UNSC 
to postpone action on the arrest warrant.  He emphasized that a 
quick decision (rather than a long, drawn-out debate) by the UNSC on 
an Article 16 postponement is important for the stability of the 
state. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) With regard to the 2009 elections, Abdalla said that VP 
Taha stated in a press conference on 5 March that elections should 
proceed normally without interference or disruption.  According to 
Abdalla, Taha also said that the issuance of the warrant does not 
mean that the GoS will seek to delay or cancel elections (nor the 
peace process in Darfur nor economic development.)  From the NEC 
Deputy Chairman's perspective, "I don't see that this [the issuance 
of the warrant] will cause any interference" in our election 
preparations, but this also depends on how other governments, and in 
particular ICC signatories, will react to the ICC's decision." 
 
International Electoral Assistance Not in Danger 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶5.  (SBU) Abdalla said that, according to Taha, the GoS has 
documentary evidence that the 13 NGOs that it expelled were working 
with the ICC.  "People believe they were working outside their 
normal agenda," Abdalla explained.  When poloff asked Abdalla if he 
was concerned that NGOs currently working with the NEC (such as the 
USAID-funded IFES, Bearing Point, and others) could suffer the same 
fate, he said no.  He added that the NEC has a "very positive" 
meeting with the Minister for International Cooperation March 5 to 
discuss how the GoS could "ease" the process of these groups' (i.e., 
donors' implementing partners working on elections such as IFES, 
NDI, IRI, etc.) ability to work with the NEC (i.e. - help facilitate 
their registration, work permits, etc).  He said that the Minister 
was amenable to the NEC's suggestions on how to do so.  (Bio note: 
Abdalla Abdalla attended UC Davis in the 1960s.  He was Sudan's 
Ambassador to the U.S. in the early 1990s.  He was also Governor of 
the Northern Region in the late 1990s, after returning to the Sudan. 
End note.) 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Professor Abdalla Idris, Co-Chairman of the National 
Constitutional Review Commission termed the timing of the arrest 
warrant "unfortunate," particularly because of what Idriss 
characterized as recent progress on CPA implementation and the 
Darfur peace process.  According to Idris, the best way forward now 
is for the UNSC to suspend the action of the warrant. 
"Implementation of the CPA and the peace process in Darfur is more 
essential right now" than the issuance of the warrant, he said. 
Sudan "is in a state of nation-building; if the central government 
ceases to exist, it will be a nightmare for everyone - the West, us, 
and our neighbors; this could happen."  Sudan is already in a very 
delicate situation and it does not need to be inflamed.  "We will 
have to wait and see what happens next," he said. 
 
KHARTOUM 00000309  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
Darfur Quiet, But IDPs Worried at NGO Expulsions 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶7. (SBU) Authorities maintained a relative quiet in all three major 
Darfur cities following the March 4 announcement, with students and 
government workers leading limited, controlled protests in El 
Fasher, Nyala and El Geneina March 4 and 5, in addition to a large 
military presence on the streets.  According to UNAMID, on March 4 
the Wali of North Darfur addressed a gathering of protestors and 
took pains to point out that UNAMID's mandate in Darfur was separate 
from the aims of the ICC.   IDP leaders succeeded in discouraging 
their constituents from celebrating the ICC announcement  publicly, 
but civil society sources indicated that the GOS decision to curtail 
the operations of major INGOs could disrupt the tentative balance of 
peace among Darfuri IDPs.  Idris Yousif, leader of the Fur Shurra 
Council, cautioned that a "catastrophe" could ensue if the GOS 
ceased the operations of the major INGOs.  Osman Abelmawia, a lawyer 
and IDP advocate in Nyala, South Darfur, described IDPs as "happy 
but quiet" in the wake of the announcement, but said that as IDPs 
were just beginning to learn of the expulsion decision, and their 
reaction could spark unrest in camps that are normally quiet. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Emboff spoke with Ahmed Abu Basher, umda  (traditional 
leader) in Abu Shouk IDP camp outside of El Fasher, North Darfur, 
who said that camp leaders met on the afternoon of March 5 to 
consider organizing a protest in El Fasher, taking their concerns 
directly to the HAC offices there to pressure the GOS mechanism into 
reversing the expulsion decision.  Instead, the IDP representatives 
chose to draft a letter of formal protest to UNAMID.  Ahmed Akim 
Osman from Al Salaam IDP camp outside of El Fasher worried that the 
camp will soon be left without a medical clinic, leaving IDPs 
further marginalized.  Describing IDPs as "helpless" as they face 
new GOS restrictions on humanitarian aid, Osman said that some IDP 
leaders supported staging a protest, but others successfully 
counseled against any public reaction, given that GOS authorities 
had formally warned IDP leaders that anyone who publicly protested 
following the ICC announcement would be killed. 
 
Southern Kordofan Calm, For Now 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶9.  (SBU) Speaking from his home in Kadugli (the SK state capital), 
Ibrahim Balandia, Speaker of the Southern Kordofan State Legislature 
(NCP) said the reaction to the issuance of the arrest warrant in 
Southern Kordofan was "very calm."  This is a political issue that 
needs to be handled at the national level, according to Balandia. 
People are supporting Bashir as an act of unity for the country, he 
said.  Balandia said that the NGOs are continuing their work in 
Southern Kordofan (although he did not seem to be aware that many of 
those that work there - including Mercy Corps, Save the Children 
U.S. - have been expelled.)  He did say that the NGOs are "helping 
people," and that we (the Sudanese) should "respect them and protect 
them."  He added that his daughter is employed by Save the Children 
USA. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Speaking from Khartoum, Sadiq Mansour, Deputy Speaker of 
the Southern Kordofan State Legislature (SPLM), (who just traveled 
from SK three days ago) said he has been in touch with his fellow 
leaders in Southern Kordofan who said that the situation there was 
"calm."  "People are observing what is happening."   He attributed 
the calm among the SPLM Nuba to the SPLM Chairman (Kiir's) statement 
asking people to react calmly to the arrest warrant issuance. 
 
"I Don't Know What Will Happen Next" 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶11.  (SBU) Mansour said that the NGO expulsion will have a "very big 
impact" on Southern Kordofan.  This decision will "badly affect 
people in the Nuba Mountains."  "This will be a bad situation that 
will lead to bad consequences."  Since the signing of the CPA, many 
NGOs have operated in Southern Kordofan to provide basic services to 
the Nuba people and have done a good job.  The situation of their 
expulsion is "very bad and complex," said Mansour.  "I don't know 
what will happen next."  He urged the international community to 
find a way to solve this issue.  Mansour also said that the SPLM 
would discuss this issue (the expulsions) on the highest level (at 
the Political Bureau).  The security situation Sudan-wide is "not 
okay," right now, it is "serious." 
 
Turabi Alive, Despite Rumors 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶12. (SBU) Siddiq Al-Turabi told poloff by telephone on March 5 that 
prison officials in Port Sudan have assured the family that their 
father, Sudanese opposition leader Hassan Al-Turabi, is still alive 
after rumors circulated this week that he had died.  The family most 
 
KHARTOUM 00000309  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
recently visited the 77 year-old Islamist and leader of the People's 
Congress Party (PCP) on Saturday, February 28, and found him to be 
healthy and adjusting well to the conditions of the prison located 
near Sudan's Red Sea coast.  According to the younger Turabi, the 
family of Dr. Bashir Adam Rahma, PCP foreign secretary, visited him 
most recently on Tuesday, March 2, and found Bashir and Turabi to be 
in good condition.  Siddiq Al-Turabi speculated that the false rumor 
that his father had died had most likely started outside of 
Khartoum's tight political circle, and said that the family intends 
to visit their father again this coming Saturday, March 7. 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
¶13.  (SBU) Across a range of political and geographic contacts, the 
attitude is one of watchful waiting.  NCP officials are predictably 
supportive of the government and its response, while the SPLM is 
considering its options.  Sudan generally appears to be in a 
reactive mode, waiting to see what next steps the international 
community will take following the ICC announcement and the GOS 
decision to expel more than 13 NGOs from northern Sudan. 
 
FERNANDEZ