VZCZCXRO8104
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0297/01 0621455
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 031455Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3142
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000297 
 
DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/C 
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: DARFUR CALM BUT TENSE AHEAD OF MARCH 4 ICC ANNOUNCEMENT 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Darfur is calm but tense ahead of the March 4 ICC 
announcement.  Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) leaders are 
actively warning IDPs against engaging in any public celebrations in 
response to the expected ICC indictment of President Bashir.  At the 
same time, they express confidence that UNAMID Formed Police Units 
(FPUs) will provide sufficient security for IDP camps. Civilian and 
military authorities are planning a pro-government mass rally and 
public parade of weapons through El Fasher tomorrow.  UNAMID has 
been coordinating closely on March 2-3 with Darfuri officials in 
advance of the announcement. At the moment, no rebel movement is 
poised to attack any of Darfur's capitals, but a dispute in an El 
Fasher market on March 2 resulted in two civilians killed and eight 
injured, and led civilians to pelt the Wali of North Darfur with 
stones and shout support for the ICC. End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Although the scene of some violence in the market on March 
2, El Fasher the capital of North Darfur, was calm on March 3 
according to various sourcs.  UN Department of Safety and Security 
(UNDSS) anticipates no particular outbreaks of violence following 
the ICC announcement, but has advised UN and NGO personnel to 
maintain a low profile and to avoid unnecessary movements.  In 
response to tomorrow's expected International Criminal Court (ICC) 
announcement of an arrest warrant against Sudanese President Omar 
Al-Bashir, El Fasher civilian and military authorities are planning 
a series of pro-government rallies and parades of weaponry.  Ahmed 
Adam Yousif, director of the independent NGO Ajaweed, said 
government employees, student unions and members of the Popular 
Defense Forces will be coerced to take part in a "condemnation 
rally" tomorrow in El Fasher, and SLM/MM-aligned politician Ahmed 
Hassan Bahar expressed a common sentiment from his office in El 
Fasher, saying, "I don't know what the situation will be in Darfur 
generally, but it will not be good." 
 
¶3. (SBU) According to UNDSS Chief Frazer King, approximately 15 
armed Arab militia fighters came to El Fasher on March 2 to receive 
training and funds from the Central Reserve Police, but were 
short-changed following their training, and began to steal from 
locals in the El Mawashi market area.  Confronted by local traders, 
the militia discharged their weapons in the crowded market, killing 
two Darfuris and injuring three.  Local sources confirmed that the 
Wali of North Darfur Othman Mohamed Kibir visited the injured at a 
local hospital following the shootings, prompting some residents to 
gather in front of the building, throwing stones as the Wali 
emerged, and shouting slogans in support of the International 
Criminal Court (ICC). 
 
¶4. (SBU) IDP leaders appear concerned that spontaneous celebrations 
and tribal dancing within the camps may provoke a harsh GOS 
reaction, but expressed confidence that UNAMID Formed Police Units 
(FPUs) would offer some protection in a worst-case scenario.  Ahmed 
Atim Osman, community leader at the Al Salaam IDP camp in North 
Darfur, said he and his fellow chieftains are discouraging 
gatherings and asking IDPs to keep quiet following the ICC 
announcement.  He added that the UNAMID Indonesian FPUs, which 
patrol the perimeter of the camp, have increased security, in turn 
providing IDPs with a level of relative safety within the camps that 
had been previously lacking.  Abu Al Bashar, a Fur leader in the Abu 
Shouk IDP camp near El Fasher, told emboff, "The situation in Abu 
Shouk is calm, and IDPs are confident in the protection provided by 
UNAMID.  The decision will result in a government protest, but the 
IDPs will keep calm and silent even though they support the ICC 
decision." 
 
¶5. (SBU) Hideo Ikebe, civil affairs officer at UNAMID headquarters 
in El Fasher, acknowledged that tension remains high throughout 
Darfur, but does not believe that rebel movements will take 
advantage of the date to organize an offensive on one of Darfur's 
three capitals.  "No rebel group has enough military strength now to 
launch an attack," said Ikebe, adding that the recent claim by 
notorious janjaweed leader Musa Hilal that he has 30,000 militia 
fighters poised to defend the National Congress Party (NCP) was as 
unrealistic as the claims by Khalil Ibrahim that he intends to 
personally arrest President Bashir.  Suleiman Marjan, a rebel leader 
with SLA/Abdulwahid, predicted a strong government reaction against 
rebel movements in the next few days, cautioning:  "We raised the 
level of precaution because we expect the government to attack us in 
our areas of control when the decision is announced." 
 
¶6. (SBU) UNAMID Joint Special Representative Rodolphe Adada told CDA 
Fernandez on March 3 in Meroe that he and his deputy had spent the 
past two days meeting with the Walis of Darfur's three states as 
well as NISS, SAF and HAC officials there. Ever the optimist, Adada 
said that Sudanese officials assured him that they would maintain 
cooperation with UNAMID and that there would be no pre-emptive 
attacks on IDP camps by security forces. CDA reminded Adada of the 
 
KHARTOUM 00000297  002 OF 002 
 
 
August 25 Kalma Camp massacre when security forces informed UNAMID 
30 minutes (at most) before an attack which killed 33 people. Adada 
responded that such an attack could not happen now "because we are 
there." He also downplayed reports of regime harassment of 
international NGOs in Darfur. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: Doomsday scenarios predicting violence in Darfur 
immediately following the ICC announcement appear somewhat 
far-fetched at the moment; indeed March 4 may pass as quietly as 
July 14, 2008 when ICC Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo announced he was 
requesting an indictment against Bashir.  However, the full 
implications of the expected announcement by the ICC to issue an 
arrest warrant for the President will play out over time and 
tensions are high throughout Sudan.  Rebel leaders are likely to 
take up the banner of international justice as the reason for 
disruptive assaults across Darfur.  For the moment, JEM appears to 
have fully withdrawn into Chad so we don't expect any immediate 
assaults on government installations or forces (other rebel groups 
are mostly in defensive positions at this point and have little 
capacity to project force - even JEM cannot hold territory and 
resorts to launching transitory attacks.)  GOS forces and allied 
militia have been steadily consolidating their control in Darfur 
over the last several months (ironically, the JEM attack in January 
helped the regime in this regard), making the full and complete 
deployment of UNAMID, especially the valuable IDP-protecting FPUs, 
ever more essential.  For IDP leaders to voice confidence in the 
UNAMID FPUs is an important development, a rare public relations 
victory for a peacekeeping mission in desperate need of local 
support. 
 
FERNANDEZ