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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000084 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OSCE PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: CHP'S CHOICE A STRANGE ONE IN UPCOMING TEKIRDAG 
ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. ISTANBUL 75 
     ¶B. ISTANBUL 81 
 
¶1.  Summary.  In the past five years Tekirdag Province has 
seen two relatively close elections, with Turkey's ruling 
Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its Republican 
People's Party (CHP) each having won one.  While the province 
would thus seem to be in play, for the upcoming local mayoral 
election, CHP has chosen Adem Dalgic, an unknown and 
inexperienced medical doctor, to run against Ahmet Aygun, the 
current AKP Mayor of Greater Tekirdag Municipality.  As with 
other cities in the regions surrounding Istanbul, AKP's 
better organization, greater financial resources and history 
of competent delivery of public services are likely to 
outweigh in voters' minds the global economic crisis and 
dogged accusations of corruption.  End summary. 
Tekirdag Relatively Unscathed By The Economic Crisis, So Far 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶2.  Tekirdag Province is located on the Sea of Marmara, 80 
miles west of Istanbul.  According to Governor Aydin Nezih 
Dogan (nominally unaffiliated, but widely assumed to be close 
to the AKP), Tekirdag has the seventh largest economy in 
Turkey, with 1,300 industrial companies, 170,000 registered 
workers and 425,000 hectares of agricultural land.  While of 
relatively small size (the municipality has a population of 
134,000 and the province 770,000), the province has big plans 
to leverage its location and transform itself into a regional 
logistics hub:  The two existing seaports are being expanded, 
and a third port, with a capacity of 2.5 million metric tons 
per year, is under construction, with local financing.  In 
addition, an international airport has recently opened, and 
this summer a trans-European railway line will be completed. 
All of these steps are being taken in anticipation of a GOT 
initiative to move to Tekirdag some of the logistics and 
shipping business currently handled in Istanbul. 
 
¶3.  Dogan says that Tekirdag's economy is doing relatively 
better than those of Bursa or Kocaeli (Refs) because it is 
based on textiles, white goods and agriculture, which sectors 
have not been as hard hit as the automobile sector upon which 
the Bursa and Kocaeli economies are based.  (He cautioned, 
however, that textiles have withstood the crisis in part 
because of forward orders placed before the crisis, and that 
in the future orders will probably decline.)  Beginning in 
December, Tekirdag began experiencing some layoffs, but its 
current (official) unemployment level is at a relatively-low 
eight percent.  Dogan thus concludes that the crisis will 
have but a small effect on the local elections. 
 
¶4.  At our meeting with the local chamber of commerce, 
members were a bit more pessimistic than was Governor Dogan. 
Most have seen a decline in business.  Even food wholesalers 
-- generally considered impervious to recession -- complained 
that while sales have remained firm, customers are paying 
very slowly.  However, a survey engineer, who is involved in 
construction projects at the planning stage, said that he has 
not suffered a drop-off in business -- perhaps a leading 
indicator that, long-term, Turkish businesses remain 
optimistic. 
 
CHP Opts for an Unknown 
----------------------- 
 
¶5.  In the 2004 local elections, AKP won 33 percent of the 
votes and CHP 25 percent.  In the 2007 general elections, CHP 
came out ahead, 34 percent to 29 percent.  With such a 
history, Tekirdag would thus appear to be in play, and 
deserving of substantial effort and attention by CHP.  Yet, 
it has chosen as its candidate Adem Dalgic, a 48 year old 
unknown state hospital surgeon apparently without any prior 
political experience.  In local elections, where the 
personalities of the candidates are as important as their 
party affiliations, Dalgic would appear to be a strange 
choice.  While we were eager to discuss this with the CHP 
local party leadership and candidate, they refused to meet 
with us, claiming that to do so would be an "interference" in 
the election. 
 
Democratic Party Mini-Revival 
----------------------------- 
 
¶6.  Unlike CHP, the Democratic Party (DP) leadership and 
 
ISTANBUL 00000084  002 OF 002 
 
 
candidate Ercan Tursucular were happy to meet with us -- and 
invited some two dozen ordinary party members to participate, 
as well.  Tursucular is an attorney in his 60s, and a 
founding member of the one-time ruling ANAP party.  As in 
Kocaeli (Ref B), DP in Tekirdag is focused on reviving the 
party's brand.  Tursucular's message to us and the party 
faithful was that AKP must be defeated because it is 
compromising Turkey's secular democracy and introducing an 
"Arab culture and mentality."  (Comment: Such a message is 
unlikely to attract voters who lean towards AKP, but it could 
well pull votes from CHP.) 
 
AKP, As Usual, In The Catbird Seat 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  Confident and outgoing, Tekirdag mayor Ahmet Aygun, a 
20-year veteran of local politics, was effusive in hosting 
us.  He said that local voters would judge the candidates 
based on three main criteria:  Previous performance, future 
capacity, and the overall political climate in the country. 
As proof of his own competencies, Aygun pointed to two huge 
charts on the wall of his office: The first listed the status 
of 36 promises made by him in the last campaign -- 32 of 
which were marked completed.  The second chart showed 60 more 
projects that, while not part of his campaign platform, he 
had nevertheless completed.  Aygun has put together a list of 
30 more promises that will form his platform for the coming 
campaign.  Aygun said he highly values accountability, and 
noted that every month he distributes a publication updating 
the status of his promises.  According to Aygun recent polls 
show AKP support around 40 percent and CHP in the 30s. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  The recent shaky performance of CHP's leadership has 
begun to cause media commentators to question just how 
serious its leadership is about contesting the local 
elections.  The approach taken by CHP in Tekirdag will do 
nothing to reassure people that it does indeed intend to 
mount a meaningful challenge to AKP.  In a district that 
should be in play, CHP's choice of an inexperienced and 
unknown candidate is hard to understand. 
Wiener