VZCZCXRO6620
RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHHE #0079/01 0611034
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 021034Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY HELSINKI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4844
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0969

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000079 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2019 
TAGS: FI MARR PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: FINLAND: NEW DEFENSE POLICY INCHES TOWARD NATO 
MEMBERSHIP 
 
Classified By: CDA Michael A. Butler for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On January 23 the Finnish Government (GoF) 
released its quadrennial defense security white paper.  It 
delayed release due to difficulty in arriving at a consensus 
on how to treat the question of Finland's possible NATO 
membership.  Some in the Cabinet sought stronger language 
favoring NATO membership, while others wished the paper to 
break no new ground. Prime Minister Vanhanen insisted on 
stronger language, and the paper describes NATO as "the most 
important military security cooperation organization." 
However, Vanhanen also ensured that the paper contains 
arguments against membership and strong language favoring 
security promotion through other organizations like the EU. 
Speaking February 4 before Parliament, President Halonen 
emphasized that the new policy does not change government 
policy and Finland continues to retain the option to join 
NATO.  Foreign Minister Stubb publicly stated that Finland 
will not pursue NATO membership during the current government 
(term ending 2011).  While the latest white paper gives 
something to NATO supporters and NATO skeptics, the 
supporters benefit more: With opposition to NATO membership 
slowly diminishing and the pro-NATO governing coalition 
member National Coalition Party (NCP) riding high in polls, 
the NCP's aspirations to shepherd Finland into NATO in the 
next government seem more realistic now than Prime Minister 
Vanhanen's prediction that Finland will not be a NATO member 
ten years from now.  END SUMMARY. 
 
NATO debate delays release of defense and security white paper 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
 
¶2. (C) On January 23 the GoF released the latest version of 
its quadrennial defense and security white paper.  It delayed 
release in 2008, in part due to the challenge of addressing a 
swiftly changing security environment, including Russia's 
incursion into Georgia, but also to wrangling within the GoF 
about how to address possible NATO membership. While support 
for NATO membership crosses party lines in the four-party 
coalition government, it is strongest within the NCP. 
According to Jori Arvonen, advisor to Foreign Minister Stubb 
(NCP), some in the GoF sought a white paper that broke no new 
ground while others (in particular the NCP leadership) 
insisted it must address significant changes internationally 
since the last report.  Prime Minister Vanhanen, whose Center 
Party holds many NATO skeptics, agreed that the paper should 
contain stronger language regarding NATO.  However, in order 
to maintain consensus within a government not unified on the 
question of NATO membership, the paper includes arguments 
both for and against, plus language stressing the importance 
of working with and through other institutions, in particular 
the European Union. 
 
NATO membership: a "strong case" preserved and deferred 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶3. (U) The 2004 white paper described NATO as an organization 
of "key importance" for "transatlantic security policy and 
security cooperation" before somewhat blandly concluding that 
"applying for membership ... will remain a possibility ... in 
the future."  The 2009 white paper states NATO is "the most 
important military security cooperation organization." It 
also states that NATO's objectives, tasks and obligations are 
analogous with the foreign and security policy goals of 
Finland and the EU.  As FM Stubb pointed out upon the release 
of the report, the paper states that "there will continue to 
be a strong case for Finland's membership." Nevertheless, 
having weighted the alternatives - rejecting membership, 
pursuing it or maintaining the possibility - the GoF decided 
to preserve the option. 
 
¶4. (U) In an interview following the release of the paper, 
Stubb said Finland would not apply for membership before the 
next parliamentary elections (2011).  In order to apply for 
membership, Stubb said the government and President must 
agree, and the public would also have to favor membership. 
Instead of pursuing NATO membership, Stubb said the GoF would 
focus on Nordic Defense Cooperation. 
 
Something for everyone 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Following release of the report, a major weekly 
publication cast President Halonen, who has said Finland 
would not join NATO during her tenure (ending in 2012), as 
the loser in the internal struggle surrounding the paper's 
treatment of NATO.  However, this may mis-characterize the 
result, as PM Vanhanen, a scrupulous consensus-builder, 
ensured a carefully-worded report that gives something to 
everyone.  In a February 4 speech opening the new session of 
Parliament Halonen acknowledged that the paper addresses 
 
HELSINKI 00000079  002 OF 002 
 
 
NATO-related issues "more comprehensively" than before, but 
also emphasized a "clear agreement" within the government 
that the "report does not bring NATO membership any closer or 
push it further away, but it keeps (the option) just as much 
a possibility as it was before."   (COMMENT: Some Finns have 
shared with Emboffs their impression that Halonen has 
softened her stance on NATO, at least somewhat, likely due in 
part to the election of Barack Obama.  That softening may go 
far enough to permit a consensus on stronger language 
regarding NATO but not enough to apply for membership during 
her term.  END COMMENT.)  Also, in an interview, Tarja 
Cronberg - Employment and Economy Minister and head of 
coalition member Green Party - pointed to the paper's 
arguments against membership, and emphasized the importance 
placed on the EU and Nordic Defense Cooperation for Finland's 
security. 
 
¶6. (C) NATO supporters, in particular the NCP leadership, 
welcome the stronger language as one step in reaching a 
broader public and political consensus on NATO membership. 
Acknowledging that a majority of Finns currently oppose 
membership, Arvonen pointed out to Polchief that the public 
is well aware of NCP's support for NATO membership, and yet 
the party's popularity is rising.  NCP currently tops opinion 
polls, and Arvonen told Polchief that its leadership sees the 
NCP leading the next government and taking Finland into NATO. 
(NOTE: A poll taken after the paper's release shows that 
while opposition to NATO membership remains over 50 percent, 
it is dropping: the gap between supporters and opponents 
shrank from over 50 percent to 26 percent in the last six 
years. END NOTE.) 
 
¶7. (C) As for Vanhanen, the Prime Minister walks a fine line 
between NATO supporters and skeptics.  His own leanings on 
the question of NATO membership are unclear, but when asked 
by a newspaper after the paper's release to look ten years 
into Finland's future, among numerous other predictions he 
said that in 2019 Finland would not be a NATO member.  He 
offered no reason why Finland would not join NATO by then. 
Vanhanen's comment might reflect internal party politics than 
personal conviction, as the Center Party's popularity is 
slipping in polls, his own popularity within the Center Party 
is dwindling, and only twenty percent of his party's 
membership supports NATO membership. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (C) Depending on with whom ones speaks, Finland is either 
moving towards NATO membership or standing in place.  Those 
claiming movement towards NATO currently have the stronger 
case.  Wide media coverage focused more on the "strong case" 
in favor of membership than on a multilateral security policy 
encompassing a number of international actors.  For public 
opinion, a decrease in opposition may be more important than 
an increase in support: In Finland a lack of public support 
will not prevent a government from acting, and public support 
often follows government policy, as seen when the GoF 
successfully pursued EU membership despite low support. 
Therefore, with opposition to NATO membership diminishing and 
the NCP riding high in polls (including NCP member Sauli 
Niinisto leading polls for the next presidential election), 
the NCP's aspirations to shepherd Finland into NATO in the 
next government seem more realistic now than Vanhanen's 
politically-motivated prediction for 2019.  (Post will 
address the paper's treatment of the U.S. septel.)  END 
COMMENT. 
BUTLER