VZCZCXRO8494
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHFK RUEHHM RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH RUEHPB
DE RUEHHI #0233/01 0720842
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 130842Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9314
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH 5677
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHZU/ASIAN PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HANOI 000233 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS MBROWN AND BBLACKSHAW 
SINGAPORE FOR TREASURY 
TREASURY FOR SCHUN 
USTR FOR DBISBEE 
USDA/FAS/OCRA/DLUCHOK 
USDA/FAS/OFSO/KWAINIO 
4430/MAC/AP/OPB/VLC/HPPHO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ETRD EAGR EIND EPET ECON KTDB KTEX PGOV VM
 
SUBJECT: VIETNAM WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REPEAT TRADE NUMBERS LIKE 
2008, U.S. EXPORTS UP BY 47% 
 
REF: A) 08 Hanoi 243 ("08 Vietnam Trade in 2007"); 
B) Hanoi 205 ("Summer is Sink-Or-Swim Time for Exporters"); 
C) Hanoi 166 ("First Refinery Ends Reliance on Imports"); 
D) Hanoi 138 ("GVN Rolls Out Stimulus Package") 
 
HANOI 00000233  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:  Vietnam's trade was running at full speed when the 
global economic crisis hit in the second half of 2008, slowing what 
would have been a remarkable year for Vietnam.  The positive trend 
was so strong that despite lower fourth-quarter numbers, Vietnam's 
total trade in goods for 2008 was up 31% from the milestone year 
that was 2007, and trade in services up by 21%.  Trade in goods with 
the United States in 2008 was up 25% from the previous year, and 
stood at an all-time high of $15.7 billion by the end of the year. 
U.S. exports were up even higher by 47%, and growth in agricultural 
goods was bullish with an increase of 83% from 2007, including over 
two dozen commodities up in the triple digits.  Total trade in 
services reached $15 billion, nearly equally divided between imports 
and exports, according to Government figures.  Vietnam's leading 
exporters are seeing their markets shrink in early 2009, a likely 
portent of what is in store for them for the rest of the year.  This 
was the seventeenth year of growing Vietnamese trade, and 2009 will 
probably mark the end of that impressive run.  END SUMMARY. 
 
RECORD TRADE VOLUMES THAT WILL BE HARD TO REPEAT 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Trade volumes for 2008 were the highest in Vietnam's history. 
 Total trade was $143.4 billion, up 31% from 2007, what was a record 
year in itself (REF A).  Total trade was equivalent to 165% of GDP 
in 2008, and exports to 72%.  Vietnam ran an unprecedented $18 
billion trade deficit too, importing $80.4 billion in goods and 
exporting $62.9 billion, increases of 28% and 30%, respectively. 
 
¶3. (U) It appears unlikely that any these numbers will be matched in 
¶2009.  Imports began to slow down in late 2008 and Vietnam ran a 
surplus in the first two months of this year, as imports (down 35% 
YOY) plummeted faster than exports (down 5%).  Vietnam's leading 
exporters are all reporting lower order volumes in early 2009, most 
in the 30% range but some, like exporters of finished wood products, 
are down by as much as 70% (REF B). 
 
¶4. (U) Crude oil was again Vietnam's highest export earner in 2008 
($10.45 billion, an increase of 23% from 2007), but this was 
exceeded in value by imports of refined fuel ($10.89 billion, an 
even larger increase of 45% from the previous year).  Garment and 
textile exports followed closely behind ($9.11 billion, a 17% 
increase from 2007), followed by footwear ($4.70 billion, up 19%) 
and seafood and fisheries ($4.56 billion, up 20%).  The order of the 
top four exports was unchanged from the previous year but rice 
($2.90 billion) displaced finished wood products from fifth place. 
The share of these exports of Vietnam's total trade was virtually 
unchanged from 2007: crude oil with 17% in both years, textiles and 
garments going from 16% to 14.5% in 2008, footwear from 8% to 7.5%, 
and seafood from 7.8% to 7.2%. 
 
¶5. (U) The overwhelming majority (89%) of Vietnam's imports in 2008 
were destined for its export industry as inputs or for the 
construction sector, with machinery and parts leading the pack 
($13.71 billion, a 32% increase from 2007), followed by refined 
fuel, steel ($6.57 billion, up 35%), and fabric and textiles ($4.43 
billion, up 11.3%).  The order in terms of value was unchanged from 
¶2007.  Their share of total imports also changed little: machinery 
and parts with 17% in both years, refined fuel from 12% to 13.5%, 
steel with 8%, and fabrics slightly down from 6.5% to 5.5%. 
 
U.S. EXPORTERS STRIKE GOLD, BOOM IN FARM EXPORTS 
------------------------ 
 
¶6. (U) In 2008, U.S. exporters managed to improve upon the record 
numbers that they posted in 2007 (REF A). U.S. exports to Vietnam 
grew by 47% from 2007 to 2008 to $2.79 billion and, once again, the 
growth in agricultural exports (up 83%) was extraordinary.  Exports 
of meats and poultry went up by 166% to $263 million, becoming the 
U.S.'s second highest value export to Vietnam after vehicles (which 
also went up by 18% to $258 million).  Exports of cotton rose by 
119% (to $192.9 million), becoming our third largest export to 
Vietnam.  Thirty two other agricultural commodities experienced 
 
HANOI 00000233  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
growth of three digits or higher.  Other areas too experienced 
significant growth, like telecom equipment, up by 254% to $136.8 
million (our fifth largest export, $84 million of which was the sale 
of a Lockheed Martin satellite).  Exports of U.S. plastics reached 
$150 million (up 5%), our fourth most valuable export in 2008. 
 
TOTAL U.S.-VIETNAM TRADE 
------------------------ 
 
¶7. (U) Total U.S.-Vietnam trade in goods reached $15.69 billion, an 
increase of 25% from 2007.  Vietnam exports ($12.9 billion) still 
dominate trade flows, although the margin has been almost halved 
from 2006, when it was 8:1 to slightly over 4:1 today.  The United 
States remains Vietnam's most important market, taking in 19% of all 
of Vietnam's exports (down from 20% in 2007).  Vietnam's top export 
to the United States in 2008 were textiles and garments ($5.11 
billion, a 15% increase from 2007), and in 2008 Vietnam became the 
second largest exporter of garments to the United States, after 
China (although China's exports dwarfed those of Vietnam).  The top 
five were rounded up by footwear ($1.08 billion, up 22% from 2007), 
finished wood products ($1.06 billion, up 12%), crude oil ($1 
billion, up 28%), and seafood ($740 million, up 1.6%). 
 
OUTLOOK FOR U.S. EXPORTS 
------------------------ 
 
¶8. (U) U.S. exports to Vietnam began to dip under 2007 levels in 
October 2008, a trend than continued until the end of the year. 
Exports went down by 3.5% from the previous year in October and by 
6.8% in November, before plummeting by 36.5% in December.  This 
trend is expected to continue into 2009. 
 
VIETNAM'S TRADE WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (U) China was again Vietnam's largest trade partner with $20.2 
billion in trade, up 27% from 2007.  Most of it was in China's 
favor, with Vietnam importing $15.65 billion in Chinese goods while 
exporting $4.54 billion of goods to China.  Japan was the second 
largest with $16.8 billion in trade (up 37%), followed by the 
European Union with $16.3 billion (a 28% increase).  The United 
States fell to fourth place, followed by Singapore ($12 billion), 
Taiwan ($9.76 billion) and South Korea ($8.85 billion). 
 
¶10. (U) Aside from China, Vietnam ran trade deficits with Taiwan 
($6.96 billion deficit), Singapore ($6.7 billion), South Korea 
($5.29 billion) and Thailand ($3.56 billion).  Vietnam had trade 
surpluses with the United States, the EU ($5.4 billion), Australia 
($2.9 billion) and the Philippines ($1.43 billion). 
 
TRADE IN SERVICES 
----------------- 
 
¶11. (U) Trade in services also increased in 2008 to $15 billion, a 
21% increase from 2007, according to GVN numbers.  Exports of 
services were $7.1 billion in 2008, while imports reached $7.9 
billion.  As in previous years, the tourism industry dominated trade 
in services ($5.3 billion in exports and $2.1 in imports), 
accounting for over half of all trade.  Shipping exports were $1 
billion, up by 27.7% from 2007, and imports were $300 million, also 
an increase of 20%.  Telecom imports were up 16% to $54 million, 
while exports went down by 27% to $80 million.  Imports of financial 
services were down 24% to $230 million and exports down 30% to $230 
million. 
 
TRENDS AHEAD 
------------ 
 
¶12. (U) The most important variable for Vietnamese trade in 2009 
will be the impact of the global economic crisis.  The early numbers 
are not good (REF B), and the impact could be significant.  Vietnam 
has increasingly relied on trade, and exports have kept increasing 
as a percentage of GDP, from 50% in 2002 to 72% in 2008. 
 
¶13. (U) Many of Vietnam's exports, including its top export, crude 
oil, will be at the mercy of world commodity prices in 2009.  The 
23% increase in revenue in 2008 from Vietnam's top export earner, 
 
HANOI 00000233  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
crude oil, came solely on the basis of rising oil prices, since 
production actually declined by 10% last year, the steepest decrease 
since Vietnam's production began to diminish in 2004.  Rice exports, 
a new entry into Vietnam's top five, increased by 94.8% in value but 
only by 3.6% in volume.  For Vietnam it goes both ways, since its 
export industries rely so heavily on commodity imports themselves. 
Its new oil refining capacity should help it offset the high cost of 
importing fuel (REF C). 
 
¶14. (U) Tourism numbers, much of the engine behind the growth in 
services trade, are expected to drop significantly in 2009.  Visitor 
numbers were down by 11% in January and February of this year, 
compared to the same period last year.  Visitor numbers were up just 
2% in 2008, after a 16% increase in 2007 (Septel). 
 
¶15. (U) To make up for lost export markets, Vietnam is aggressively 
pursuing new ones.  In particular, the footwear and garment 
industry, and the seafood and fisheries sectors are eyeing the 
Middle East and Russia.  Seafood exports to Russia and eastern 
Europe were in the triple digits last year (REF B), while the Middle 
East remains a relatively untapped export destination.  Agricultural 
exporters could also benefit from new markets.  The Prime Minister 
traveled to the Gulf states in mid-March, 2009 pushing this agenda. 
 
¶16. (U) The GVN has also passed measures to help its exporters.  As 
part of the national stimulus package, exporters will have access to 
reduced-interest loans throughout 2009 (REF D) and no-interest loans 
to cover severance for laid-off employees.  Exporters are not sure 
whether these measures will help.  "No one is going to take out a 
loan if there are no orders," a representative from the garment 
industry recently told Econoff.  In addition, the GVN has stopped 
charging exporters for certificates of origin, and has committed 
itself to ramping up export promotion activities. 
 
¶17. (U) Finally, with the exporters' full support, the GVN is likely 
to stick to its liberalizing stance in pursuing freer trade with 
other countries and regions.  The electronics and garment exporters 
told Econoff that the new free trade agreement with Japan provides 
one of the few bright spots of 2009, while  the newly signed 
agreement with Australia (bilateral trade $5.6 billion) and New 
Zealand ($310 million) covers over 90% of all traded goods with 
Vietnam.  An official from the furniture exporters association told 
us that because they did not lobby, their products were not included 
in the deal with Japan.  "We will not let that happen again," he 
said. 
 
COMMENT: A REMARKABLE RUN, A DECENT CUSHION 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶18. (U) Comment:  In little more than a decade Vietnam transformed 
itself into a significant trading economy and one of the world's 
fastest-growing markets for U.S. exports.   Vietnam's ability to 
export and purchase foreign goods should be able to stand its ground 
in relation to other trading partners as the global economic crisis 
continues.  Some export sectors, like seafood and agricultural 
commodities, may even thrive by eating into the market share from 
competitors from other countries.  Other sectors, like garments, are 
taking the right approach in focusing on increasing their 
competitiveness.  The GVN seems also to be adopting a strategy to 
streamline regulations and facilitate business during these 
difficult economic times.  This will present opportunities for the 
United States to push for further market access and intensify our 
growing relationship with Vietnam (Septel). End Comment. 
 
NOTE ON NUMBERS 
-------------- 
 
¶19. (U) This cable uses trade U.S. statistics compiled by the 
Department of Commerce and Census Bureau for most of the section on 
our bilateral trade with Vietnam.  The section on Vietnam's trade 
with the world uses the newly-released 2008 numbers compiled by 
General Statistics Office (GSO) of the GVN.  One explanation for the 
difference between figures from Vietnam's GSO and those compiled by 
the USG is the time lag due to sea transport of goods and the fact 
that a good that counts as an export by Vietnam is calculated by GSO 
on a free on board (FOB) basis, while the same good under U.S. 
statistics is counted as an import whose value includes cost, 
 
HANOI 00000233  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
insurance and freight (CIF). 
 
MICHALAK