VZCZCXRO0352
RR RUEHAST RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHTM RUEHTRO
DE RUEHGZ #0188/01 0830900
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 240900Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0367
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0253
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 0078
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 0076
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 0076
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0109
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 0063
RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE 0004
RUEHGZ/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE 0136
RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC 0009
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC 0069
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC 0121
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC 0028
RUCNFB/FBI WASHDC 0003

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 GUANGZHOU 000188 
 
STATE FOR CA/VO, CA/EX,EAP/CM, EEB/CBA, EEB/ESC, ISN/CB, L, OES 
BEIJING FOR EXEC, CG, NIV, ECON, FCS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS CMGT ECON CH
SUBJECT: NONIMMIGRANT VISA DEMAND FALLS AS SOUTHERN CHINA ECONOMY 
WORSENS 
 
REF: A) GUANGZHOU 42, B) GUANGZHOU 47, C) SHANGHAI 81, D) BEIJING 
680, E) BEIJING 686 
 
GUANGZHOU 00000188  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Guangzhou has seen a 10.4 per cent decline in 
nonimmigrant (NIV) cases in the first half of FY2009; this contrasts 
with a 17.4 per cent increase in NIV cases during the same time 
frame in FY2008.  While tourist and business visa (B1/B2) 
applications dropped by 14.9 per cent, student (F1) visa 
applications increased 22.1 per cent.  As other Mission China posts 
have reported (reftels), the recent slowdown in visa demand is most 
likely due to the effects of the global economic crisis.  China's 
leadership is determined to maintain economic growth and that means, 
especially if Beijing's stimulus package works here in the south, 
the slowdown in visa demand could well be temporary.  End summary. 
 
 
ECONOMY AFFECTS TOURIST AND BUSINESS TRAVEL 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Guangzhou consular district includes 220 million people 
and covers the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan and Guangxi 
Zhuang Autonomous Region.  Guangdong is China's richest province; 
its capital, Guangzhou, lies at the heart of the huge manufacturing 
area known as the Pearl River Delta (PRD).  With the world's demand 
for Chinese goods declining, factories are closing in the region and 
unemployment is rising (Reftel A).  The connection with visa demand 
seems obvious:  fewer business people going to America and overall 
visa adjudications declining by 10.4 per cent in FY2009, compared to 
a 17.5 per cent increase during the first half of FY2008.  Business 
and leisure travel to the U.S. has declined by almost 14.9 per cent 
thus far in FY2009 versus the same period in FY2008.  This is in 
sharp contrast to previous years, when B1/B2 travel experienced 
sustained annual growth. 
 
CHINESE GOVERNMENT (WAIBAN) OFFICIAL TRAVEL CURBED 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Compared to the first half of FY2008, there has been a 
dramatic 46.3 per cent decrease in Chinese government official 
travel in FY2009, primarily due to a recent central government edict 
that government officials can travel in groups no larger than six 
and can visit one country for no longer than five days.  According 
to contacts in the Guangdong Foreign Affairs Office (FAO), China is 
cracking down on wasteful spending and looking more carefully into 
official travel to determine whether overseas trips are warranted. 
The new travel policies require Chinese officials to spend at least 
70 per cent of their trips on business and they must return their 
official passports to the FAO within seven days of returning home. 
 
 
AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE TRAVEL ALSO SLOWING DOWN 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The American Chamber of Commerce South China (Amcham) 
consists of more than 1,650 business members, with 280 firms 
participating in our Business Visa Program.  A recent Amcham report 
on the State of Business in South China notes that 72.5 per cent of 
the organization's members are focused on providing goods and 
services for the domestic Chinese market, rather than for export. 
In recent years, Amcham visa adjudications have grown steadily at 
about 15% per year.  However, in the first half of FY2009, 
AmCham-related visa adjudications dropped by 4.8 per cent as 
compared to the same period in FY2008, including a 53 per cent 
year-on-year drop for the months of January and February. 
 
MANTIS SAO ADMINISTRATIVE PROCESSING TIME INCREASING 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) From 2005 to 2008, approximately 7 per cent of the total 
annual Amcham visa applicants required special administrative 
processing (Mantis SAOs).  The ratio of Mantis SAO cases at this 
 
GUANGZHOU 00000188  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
post is relatively lower than other China Mission posts due to the 
unique composition of the export-oriented manufacturing and business 
community here.  Nevertheless, Guangzhou's number of Mantis cases 
has continuously risen, from 2,100 in FY2005 to 3,504 requests in 
FY2008, representing a total increase of 66 per cent.  The PRD 
region is home to a number of major domestic and foreign technology 
companies, and many employees of non-Amcham firms also face SAO 
processing; there are hundreds of annual Mantis SAO clearance 
requests for Huawei employees alone.  Currently, Mantis SAO 
processing time is about sixteen weeks.  While companies and 
employees have grudgingly accepted longer administrative processing 
times and generally applied earlier than in the past, many business 
travelers have been turned away because the necessary Mantis SAO 
cannot be processed in time. 
 
PETITION VISA CONTRADICTIONS, ECONOMY TO BLAME? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Petition-based applications for skilled workers (H1) and 
intra-company transferees (L1) fluctuate depending on the individual 
categories, given that these petitions are employment-based.  A 
majority of Post's H applicants are former students who received 
their college or graduate degrees in the United States.  Comparing 
the first half of FY2009 to the same time frame in FY2008, H1B 
applications increased by 2.7 per cent while L1 applications 
decreased by 4.1 per cent.  We believe fewer Chinese companies are 
opening offices in the U.S. at this time, probably as part of their 
broader response to the global economic downturn (Reftel A).  This 
would help explain why L1 applications have seen a larger decline 
than H1B applications. 
 
INCREASE IN C1/D APPLICANTS 
--------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) As more Chinese airlines begin direct flight services from 
the mainland to the West Coast of the United States, Guangzhou has 
seen an increase in C1/D issuances.  Some of China's fastest growing 
airlines are headquartered in Guangzhou's consular district.  China 
Southern Airlines, which partners with Delta and is a member of the 
SkyTeam Alliance, has daily direct service from Guangzhou to Los 
Angeles; Hainan Airlines serves Seattle via Beijing; and China 
Southern has also acquired a daily Tokyo/Narita flight when its 
alliance partner, U.S.-based Northwest Airlines, gave up the route. 
With Chinese airlines expanding internationally, Guangzhou has 
experienced a corresponding doubling of crew and transit visa cases. 
 Other recipients of the C1/D crew and transit visas are mainly 
comprised of freighter seamen from Fujian Province.  Most of these 
applicants have prior travel to the U.S. and are generally 
considered to be bona fide visa applicants. 
 
STUDENTS STILL WANT TO ENTER THE U.S. 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Student visa applications continue to defy the downturn 
seen in other visa categories.  The U.S. remains a highly attractive 
destination for study, especially now that the dollar's value has 
weakened against China's Renminbi.  Student visa applications 
continue to increase each year. 
 
-- Comparing FY2008 to FY2007, student visa adjudications increased 
by 31.4 per cent. 
-- Comparing the first half of FY2009 to the same period in FY2008, 
the increase is 22.1 per cent over last year's adjudications. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The J-1 exchange visa category covers a broad range of 
applicant types ranging from au pairs and college students working 
in a summer work/travel program to college professors doing research 
at U.S. universities.  The J-1 visa category continues to enjoy 
modest yearly increases regardless of economic conditions.  This may 
be attributed to the fact that people in academia, whether teaching 
or studying, are relatively immune from the economic downturn.  Post 
 
GUANGZHOU 00000188  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
issued 23.3 per cent more J-1 visas in FY2008 compared to FY2007, 
and the first half of FY2009 is showing a 39.5 per cent increase 
over prior year's levels. 
 
NIV APPOINTMENT DEMAND DROPS IN FY2009 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Comparing the first six months of FY2008 with FY2009, 81 
per cent of available appointment slots were filled while only 69 
per cent of appointment slots have been filled thus far in FY2009. 
Since the beginning of FY2009, Post's capacity allows most 
applicants to schedule an appointment within a few days.  Currently, 
most categories enjoy almost no waiting periods.  New applicants are 
able to schedule an interview within 2 days and applicants who had 
been previously refused have a wait time of 9 days. 
 
NIV DEMAND IN FY2008 AND FY2009 (OCT TO MAR PERIOD) 
 
 FY2008 FY2009 
 ------ ------ 
TTL APPT AVAILABLE 46,271 30,438 
TTL APPT BOOKED 37,660 20,949 
DEMAND 81.3% 68.8% 
 
 
 TOTAL NIV ADJUDICATIONS IN GUANGZHOU 
 ------------------------------------ 
 
 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2008 FY2009 
    Oct/Mar Oct/Mar 
 ------ -- ----- -------   -------  ------- 
B1/B2 61,549 65,208 72,211 32,432 27,614 
C1/D 252 325 386 524 920 
L1 5,816 7,860 10,539 2,922 3,567 
H1B 823 887 927 512 526 
J1 1,159 1,532 1,889 560 781 
L1 346 321 502 241 231 
All Classes 72,871 79,087 92,937 38,473 34,462 
AmCham 2,646 3,068 3,266 1,382 1,316 
Waiban 11,054 11,788 9,296 5,511 2,959 
 
 INCREASE/DECREASE IN GUANGZHOU'S NIV ADJUDICATIONS 
 --------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 
    Oct/Mar 
 ------- ------- ------- ------- 
B1/B2 14.6% 5.9% 10.7% -14.9% 
C1/D -79.7% 29.0% 18.8% 75.6% 
F1 50.9% 35.1% 34.1% 22.1% 
H1B 45.1% 7.8% 4.5% 2.7% 
J1 1.0% 32.2% 23.3% 39.5% 
L1 32.6% -7.2% 56.4% -4.1% 
All Classes 15.5% 8.5% 17.5% -10.4% 
AmCham 15.7% 15.9% 6.5% -4.8% 
Waiban 37.1% 6.6% -21.1% -46.3% 
 
COMMENT: WHAT NEXT? 
------------------ 
 
¶11. (SBU) We agree with Embassy Beijing's analysis (ref D) that, 
while we might see slower growth this year as the global economic 
crisis impacts visa demand, China's economy could well recover more 
quickly than other countries, thus triggering a recovery in visa 
demand.  Furthermore, China's leadership has announced its intention 
to maintain an annual economic growth rate in the upper single 
digits to avoid the potential for social unrest.  These factors 
suggest strongly that the drop in visa demand is a temporary one. 
 
 
GOLDBERG 
 
GUANGZHOU 00000188  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
 
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