R 021229Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6049
INFO ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS DAMASCUS 000164 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/PPD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAO SCUL SY XF
SUBJECT:  THE "PESSOPTIMISTS":  SYRIANS SPECULATE ON THE FUTURE OF 
U.S.-SYRIAN RELATIONS 
 
1.(SBU) SUMMARY: Syrian political analyst Dr. Marwan Kabalan spoke 
February 28 at a prominent Damascus venue on the current hot topic 
of Syrian-American relations.  Focusing on the anticipated approach 
of the Obama Administration to foreign affairs in general more than 
on the Syrian American relationship, Dr. Kabalan alternated between 
cynicism and guarded optimism.  His principal themes were: 
Addressing the global economic crisis will be the paramount 
philosophy of the Obama administration; the U.S. will take a more 
pragmatic approach to the Middle East, and there are some signs of 
improvement in the U.S. attitude to Syria. END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) Syrian political analyst, political science professor, and 
former Fulbrighter Dr. Marwan Kabalan spoke on "Syrian-American 
Relations:  At Ease?!" on February 28 at the Syrian International 
Academy, a media training center which hosts a wide variety of such 
events.  The lecture, sponsored by the Arab Institute of 
International Affairs and Diplomatic Studies, attracted Arab and 
foreign ambassadors, former Minister of Information Mahdi Dakhlalla, 
and assorted academics and journalists.  PAO represented the 
mission. 
 
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THE ECONOMIC CRISIS WILL DRIVE EVERYTHING 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Dr. Kabalan observed that while it is still too early to 
discern Obama's foreign policy direction, all U.S. administrations 
have an overarching "philosophy" which shapes their foreign policy 
approaches.  He asserted that the world economic crisis will define 
the new Administration's philosophy, heavily coloring U.S. policy 
towards the Middle East and elsewhere.  The U.S. will give priority 
to those countries which can help it out of the economic crisis, 
Kabalan believes, in particular the Far East and the Gulf countries, 
with their huge cash reserves and sovereign wealth funds. 
 
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U.S. MIDDLE EAST POLICY WILL BE MORE PRAGMATIC 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶4. (U) Kabalan described the two main pillars of U.S. foreign policy 
as Israel and oil, but argued that the new Administration will look 
at the Middle East in less ideological, more pragmatic terms. 
Israel will not be the "spoiled child" it was under George Bush, he 
said, and it will not be able to do everything it wants.  Although 
Obama is trying to reduce the influence of lobbyists, and the Jewish 
lobby will have less influence, Kabalan said, lobbying groups will 
remain influential. 
 
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POSITIVE SIGNS BUT WHAT'S THE PRICE? 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (U) Dr. Kabalan credited the mercantile, Protestant mentality of 
Americans for a "tit-for-tat" policy that expects Syria to make a 
concession in return for the return of the U.S. Ambassador to 
Damascus.  He said that while U.S. Syria policy is still under 
review, there are some positive indicators:  a) Dennis Ross, who is 
"unpopular in our region," did not get the Middle East portfolio but 
instead ended up as "a mere consultant to the Secretary;" and b) 
there is a "clear delay" in the appointment of Jeff Feltman as 
Assistant Secretary (and he may not even be named to the position). 
Kabalan added that Ambassador Feltman acted in Lebanon as "more than 
an ambassador" [i.e. high-handedly]. 
 
-------------------------------- 
POINTS OF CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) In remarks which echoed recent SARG comments to 
Congressional visitors, Dr. Kabalan outlined those areas where the 
U.S. and Syria could agree: a) the peace process, in which the Obama 
administration will be more involved; b) Iraq, where the U.S. and 
Syrian both want to see stability; and c) combating terrorism, 
though the U.S. and Syria need to agree upon a common definition of 
what terrorism is. He named only one point of divergence:  a) the 
U.S. "problem" with Hamas and Hezbollah, "resistance movements" 
which the U.S. considers terrorist organizations. 
 
------------------------ 
IT COULD NOT GET WORSE... 
------------------------ 
¶7. (U) Dr. Kabalan opined that in its relations with Syria, the U.S. 
has emphasized the negative over the positive; even the recent 
Feltman-Moustafa meeting was more about disagreements. "A successful 
dialogue should not start like this," he commented, adding:  "We 
will get nowhere that way." However, he noted that "Even if Obama 
does nothing, U.S.-Syrian relations can't get any worse." [NOTE: 
There was no indication that Dr. Kabalan had any knowledge of the 
actual substance of the A/Assistant Secretary's meeting with the 
Syrian Ambassador. END NOTE] 
 
 
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WHAT DOES SYRIA WANT FROM THE U.S.? 
---------------------------------- 
¶8. Asked by a journalist what Syria hopes to gain from having a 
dialogue with the U.S., Dr. Kabalan responded that it is important 
for Syria and the US to improve relations. U.S. involvement would 
help Syria reach a peace deal; better relations with the U.S. would 
also reduce pressure on Syria.  Asked about reported comments from 
Vice President Shar'a that Syria would not embark upon dialogue with 
the U.S. unless the Syria Accountability Act (SAA) was lifted, 
Kabalan responded:  "The SAA is a complex and prickly subject which 
does affect Syria. It should not be a barrier to resuming our 
negotiations.  If a peace treaty is signed, then all these subjects 
can be dealt with." 
 
¶9.  COMMENT (SBU):  The level and amount participation in this 
event, as in a similar lecture given by Ambassador Imad Moustafa 
last week, demonstrated not only the intense and hopeful interest 
with which influential Syrians are following changes in the 
U.S.-Syrian relationship but also their apprehension that it may not 
improve.  Asked to comment, PAO emphasized the U.S. commitment to 
finding a peaceful solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict, the 
U.S. desire for a stronger, broader relationship between Syria and 
the U.S., and the importance of people-to-people ties. After the 
lecture, the former Minister of Information pulled PAO aside and 
repeated several times: "The Syrian President told me himself that 
he would trust an American a hundred times more than any European." 
Cynical and pessimistic though many of them are, Syrians eagerly 
anticipate any possible uptick in the relationship.  END COMMENT 
 
CONNELLY