VZCZCXRO8427
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #0372/01 0831636
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241636Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2105
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000372 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL AND INR/AA 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KDEM ECON SG
SUBJECT: Senegal: President Wade Trounced in Local Elections 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On March 22, voters in Senegal's major cities 
voted against the ruling coalition in municipal, rural, and regional 
elections.  Although the results are still unofficial, large cities 
such as Saint-Louis, Thies, Kaolack, Diourbel, Louga, Fatick, and 
the capital city Dakar will fall to the opposition.  President 
Abdoulaye Wade threw all his weight behind this election and quickly 
turned it into a referendum on his rule.  By rejecting his party's 
candidates, voters sent Wade a clear message that their desire for 
better governance and economic development has not been met by his 
administration.  End Summary. 
 
Landslide for the opposition 
---------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) Preliminary results indicate that voters in major cities 
have massively rejected the Sopi ("change") coalition led by the 
ruling Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS), preferring to hand over 
the reins of local power to the "Benno Siggil Senegaal" (United to 
Save Senegal) coalition of opposition parties as well as a host of 
smaller individual coalitions.  Wade's former Prime Minister, Macky 
Sall, who set up his own party after being ignominiously ousted by 
Wade as speaker of the National Assembly, was instrumental in this 
defeat.  He won his hometown of Fatick and in areas where he ran 
under his own banner of "Dekkal NGor" (Reviving loyalty), he 
received a significant number of votes; mostly from people who were 
angry at the manner in which Sall was treated and who would have 
normally voted for the President's SOPI coalition.  At this early 
stage, it appears that five of the country's largest cities were won 
by this coalition.  Idrissa Seck, another former Prime Minister who 
fell out of favor before recently reconciling with Wade, ran in his 
hometown of Thies (the second largest city) where he seems to have 
built up an insurmountable lead, defeating the Sopi candidate. 
 
Serious Warning 
--------------- 
¶3. (SBU) The outcome of this election is a serious political defeat 
and warning to Wade.  His administration failed to deliver on 
promises to create jobs, reduce the cost of living, and provide 
basic services in major cities where large segments of the 
population live in precarious conditions.  Observers view the result 
of this election as a rejection of Wade's choice of self-serving 
local government politicians who receive fat salaries, sell land 
assets in their jurisdictions, and systematically desert their 
cities to remain in Dakar where they conduct their own businesses or 
occupy positions in the cabinet or the National Assembly. 
 
Ingredients of the defeat 
------------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) Despite the fairly low turnout (rough preliminary 
projections puts the figure at around 40 percent), those Senegalese 
who did vote took this opportunity to make a statement.  Primarily, 
they told Wade that he should think twice about his scheme to have 
his son Karim succeed him.  The latter will clearly not be the mayor 
of Dakar as the opposition won a convincing 14 of 19 districts up 
for grabs.  That job will likely fall to Khalifa Sall, a leading 
figure of the Socialist Party who led the Benno coalition in Dakar. 
Wade was overconfident about his personal capacity to compensate for 
the deficiencies of his local government leaders with his 
characteristic blend of charisma and pugnacious populism.  Because 
of overconfidence, Wade failed to renew his party's grassroots 
leadership, which would have allowed the emergence of more credible 
competitors in local elections.  His attempt to cover up the poor 
management of his mayors by embarking on a poorly planned and 
largely unsuccessful national "economic" campaign in the run-up to 
elections outraged many Senegalese who thought that the President's 
use of state resources in a partisan way during a local election 
campaign was an alarming and unethical departure from constitutional 
tradition whereby the head of state remains out of the local fray. 
Wade also failed to manage the rivalries and frustrations in his own 
camp.  For instance, the leaders of the ruling party in Saint-Louis 
and Parcelles Assainies, two massive electoral basins, ran against 
each other, thus dividing the vote and handing victory to the 
opposition coalition.  In Dakar, some believe that the supporters of 
soon-to-be ex-Mayor Pape Diop purposely voted against their own 
party in order to foil President Wade's attempt to install his son 
as the next Mayor of the city at the expense of Diop. 
 
Against all odds 
---------------- 
¶5. (SBU) The Casamance region, against all odds, was largely won by 
President Wade's party.  Abdoulaye Balde, the Secretary General of 
the Presidency and a close political ally of Karim, proved an able 
politician and is poised to become the next mayor of Ziguinchor. 
Robert Sagna, who has been mayor of the city since 1985 and held 
various minister portfolios when the Socialists were in power, is 
viewed by locals as not having accomplished much for the city in 
recent years.  Balde was able to take advantage of this local 
dissatisfaction and soundly defeat the incumbent.  Balde's victory 
is perhaps one of this election's most intriguing outcomes, 
especially now that the leader of the Generation du Concrete (GC), 
Karim Wade, has been soundly beaten.  Balde has clearly proven 
 
DAKAR 00000372  002 OF 002 
 
 
himself by winning in the Ziguinchor region while carrying a several 
ministers on his considerable coattails.  With Karim Wade's 
political aspirations on life support as a result of his stinging 
defeat, Balde becomes the de facto leader of the GC and may figure 
prominently in what will be an all but certain Cabinet re-shuffle 
and may become, along with Seck and Sall, a contender for the 
presidency in 2012. 
 
Ministers Go Down 
----------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) In several major cities the opposition inflicted huge 
casualties on President's Wade cabinet.  In Saint-Louis, Cheikh 
Bamba Dieye's victory means that all the ministers who were on 
SOPI's majority list will not be taking a seat in the city's 
municipal council.  These include Interior Minister Cheikh Tidiane 
Sy, Minister of Mines Ousmane Ngom, Minister of Decentralization and 
current Mayor Ousmane Masseck Ndiaye and the Minister of Sports, 
Bacar Dia.  In Fatick, the Minister of Culture Mame Birame Diouf, 
was soundly beaten by Macky Sall's coalition.  In Thies the Minister 
of Agriculture, Hamath Sall, joined Education Minister Moustafa 
Sourang in being defeated by Idrissa Seck and his coalition. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶7. (SBU) This landmark election confirmed that the people of Senegal 
are tired of President Wade's misrule and his mismanagement of the 
country's finances.  It is also clear that the Benno coalition did 
far better than they even they expected.  This election also 
confirms Idrissa Seck and Macky Sall's political strength and has 
brought Balde to the forefront of Senegal's political scene. 
However, the opposition remains a motley crew of some twenty-plus 
parties and there will be many battles in the days ahead as the 
winning candidates will jockey among themselves to become Mayors of 
the cities where they were elected.  Meanwhile, the President cannot 
be written off because he retains a great capacity to influence the 
management of their cities, given that he still controls both the 
Treasury, that funds the city councils, and the National Assembly, 
that can pass any legislation he wishes.  What the President will do 
now and how he will spin the results remains to be seen.  If Wade 
sticks to his script he will probably blame his Ministers, then fire 
them and use a Cabinet reshuffle to show the people he got their 
message.  Beyond that it is a wait and see which Wade emerges - the 
autocrat who will stubbornly stay the course to manage his 
succession or the reconciler who will grudgingly reach out to a 
newly invigorated opposition. 
Bernicat