VZCZCXRO5167
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #0339/01 0790810
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 200810Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2069
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHLMC/MCC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000339 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/EPS, AF/RSA, DRL/AE 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM PHUM SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: Local Election Campaigning Heats Up 
 
DAKAR 00000339  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: In the run up to the March 2009 local elections, 
Poloff and Pol Assistant travelled to Kebemer, Louga and Saint Louis 
to observe various candidates on the campaign trail.  The stakes are 
high for both the governing and opposition coalitions as these 
elections will define where these groups go from here until 
presidential elections slated for 2012, increasing or decreasing the 
President's ability to manage his succession.  The opposition is 
accusing the governing coalition of massive fraud and vote buying. 
The President is violating election rules by campaigning 
(euphemistically dubbed an "economic tour") for his coalition's 
local candidates.  He has encountered hostile, rock throwing crowds 
in several places.  The opposition has promised to respond harshly, 
including through violence, to any attempts at fraud.  End summary. 
Note. This cable reports information gathered prior to the March 15 
local elections.  The results are being tabulated and have not been 
reported as of the writing of this message.  End Note. 
 
St Louis - Action Aplenty 
------------------------ 
¶2. (SBU) Campaigning in St Louis is going full steam ahead with 
candidates on the streets from morning until midnight and money 
being spent aplenty in this key battleground city.  Pitted against 
one another are the governing SOPI ("Change" in Wolof) coalition 
lead by incumbent Mayor, Minister of Decentralization Ousmane 
Masseck Ndiaye who has the support of four Ministers on his party's 
list; the Benno coalition led by the dynamic parliamentarian and IV 
alum Cheikh Bamba Dieye; and Ahmath Fall Braya.  Braya is a deputy 
from the governing Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS) who set up his 
own list after he was not placed high enough in SOPI's list.  Like 
Bamba Dieye, Braya is a local boy who came up through his party's 
ranks.  A Braya victory can be put in SOPI's win column. 
 
¶3. (SBU) According to St Louis 1st Deputy Mayor, Ayda Mbaye, who is 
a member of the opposition  Democratic League (LD) and third on 
Benno's proportional list, the PDS is spending an enormous amount of 
money to win the election.  She said, "In my neighborhood of Bango 
they are paying between CFA 50,000 (USD 100) to CFA 100,000 (USD 
200) to families."  However, she claimed attempts to buy voters will 
not succeed because people have told her they intend to take the 
money but still vote for Mbaye. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) According to Mbaye, "Ousmane does not dare go [into her 
neighborhood] himself.  They are not even trying to campaign on his 
achievements because he was never here and he has none.  Half the 
projects he claims he has done have not even been completed and he 
knows I know this because I ran the city while he spent all his time 
in Dakar.  That's why he refuses to debate me in an open forum." 
She continued, "Ousmane Ngom (the Minister of Mines), had to come up 
from Dakar to help the campaign because they are doing so badly 
here.  Awa Ndiaye (the Minister for Families) is here all the time, 
and she's having problems in her own district."  According to Mbaye, 
Minister Ngom has been a city counselor for 12 years but has not 
attended one meeting of the council. 
(Note: In 2002 the LD and the PDS were coalition partners, before LD 
leader Abdoulaye Bathilly fell out with President Abdoulaye Wade. 
It was Mbaye's delivery of her neighborhood that allowed SOPI to 
win, paving the way for Ousmane Masseck Ndiaye to become Mayor of St 
Louis. End Note) 
 
¶5. (SBU) Cheikh Bamba Dieye said that if the elections are held in a 
free and fair manner he should become the next Mayor of St Louis 
but, "They're bribing everybody with money, food, land, whatever you 
can think of.  Despite that, I think we have a really good shot 
here.  Our informal polling indicates that SOPI is running in third 
place behind us and Braya."  During a campaign tour at a local fish 
market, Poloff observed that Dieye is an enthusiastic campaigner and 
that citizens were very excited to hear what he had to say.  A 
female fish vendor reflected the general reception he got by telling 
him, "I like the fact that you care to come and listen to us; the 
others drive by without deigning to stop or say hi."  Dieye was 
followed by a large retinue and loud music, creating a party 
atmosphere that got the crowds going.  In short speeches he attacked 
the Mayor for doing nothing and showed his family ties in Saint 
Louis, "As the son of Ablaye Dieye (Note: A well-known local 
politician. End Note), you are putting your future in the hands of 
someone you know."  He went on to use Koranic verses to show that he 
is religious and well-versed in Muslim studies, which is still a 
plus in Saint Louis where a traditional Islamic education is highly 
valued. 
 
¶6. (SBU) In contrast to Dieye's campaign, the SOPI headquarters 
looked forlorn.  Poloff was invited to join Mayor Ndiaye and 
Minister Awa Ndiaye to observe a strategy session.   During this 
session both Ministers looked bored while supporters complained that 
neither leaders had visited their districts and that they did not 
have enough money to buy T-shirts and posters.  When Mayor Ndiaye 
learned from Poloff that Benno's Dieye had received a tumultuous 
welcome at a local market he told an aide, in Wolof, that he too 
wanted to go to a market immediately.  In response the aide seemed 
 
DAKAR 00000339  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
to balk at the idea of doing such an event without ample 
preparation. 
 
Kebemer - Lackluster 
------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) Campaigning in President Abdoulaye Wade's hometown of 
Kebemer was decidedly lackluster as the opposition has virtually 
ceded this city to SOPI.  The Mayor of the city is the spritely 83 
year old Ali Kebe, a classmate of Wade's whom the President imposed 
upon the city.  The only interesting aspect of this election is 
whether or not a younger generation of local politicians, led by 
deputy Mayor and former IV alum Kalipha Mboup, can persuade Kebe to 
step aside to allow Mboup to succeed him. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) During a campaign tour Mboup was widely recognized and 
showed a solid grasp of pressing local issues while touting a plan 
to create city-wide "citizen's councils" to boost the interaction 
between citizens and the municipality.  In answer to a pointed 
question by a young man about jobs Mboup said, "I'm not here to 
offer you jobs.  If anybody comes here and tells you that the Mayor 
can give you jobs they're lying.  The responsibility of the 
municipality is to create the environment to attract investments 
that create jobs, not to give people jobs that we don't have." 
Mboup confided that they had received very little money to campaign 
with and that overall budget support from the state to local 
municipalities had been slashed from CFA 8 billon in 2008 to CFA 6 
billion in 2009.  This lack of financing was clearly visible 
throughout the city as there was not one single piece of campaign 
paraphernalia to be seen anywhere. 
 
Louga - Where is SOPI? 
-------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Louga, the hometown of former President Abdou Diouf, has 
long been a thorn in the side of current President Wade.  The 
opposition there is led by the fierce Aminata Mbengue Ndiaye who is 
also the leader of the Socialist Party's Women's group.  Mbengue is 
personally financing the opposition Benno Siggil Senegal's campaign 
in Louga and is in total control of the twenty or so opposition 
parties that make up her motley coalition.  Despite running a 
low-key campaign, she is confident of victory but is clearly worried 
that SOPI will resort to nefarious maneuvers to steal the election. 
 According to her, young people have been persuaded to sell their 
electoral cards for around CFA 5000 (USD 10) while SOPI is going 
around delivering cooking oil, rice and other quotidian staples to 
buy people's votes.  One of Mbengue's colleagues claimed, "We have 
infiltrated SOPI and there are areas where they will not set foot 
because they know we will be on the lookout, as a result they will 
target areas where people are less determined to protect their 
votes." 
 
Red Flags for the President 
--------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) For his part, President Wade is on a thinly disguised 
campaign tour dubiously dubbed as an "economic tour" of the country. 
 In many places he has been met by red flag waving (a sign of 
discontent in Senegal) and stone-throwing citizens who are taking 
their pent up frustrations out on him.  In Podor, Diourbel, Fatick, 
Niakhar, Bambey, Kaffrine and the suburbs of Dakar his motorcade has 
been stoned, resulting in broken windows and many a hasty departure 
by the Presidential motorcade.  During a stop in St Louis he did no 
public campaigning, instead preferring to stay ensconced in his 
hotel meeting with local leaders. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Despite being local, the stakes of these elections have 
national implications for both coalitions.  If SOPI were to lose 
significant ground, Wade's plan to manage his succession becomes 
that much harder as the opposition will present any loss as a 
reflection of the president's unpopularity.  For Benno, this is a 
major opportunity to show that they are a legitimate opposition with 
political muscle.  Meanwhile, individual battles up and down the 
country such as the one in St Louis make this election much more 
intriguing, especially in light of Wade's threat that whoever loses 
in his coalition will be at the sharp end of a political guillotine. 
 Overarching these calculations are the twin specters of fraud and 
money.  Clearly, SOPI is hoping that it can buy victory while Benno 
has promised a harsh and violent response to any inklings of fraud. 
End comment.