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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 COPENHAGEN 000139 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV KGHG DA
SUBJECT:  Climate Conferences Build Toward COP-15 
 
COPENHAGEN 00000139  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
This is an action request for OES/EGC--see para 15. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Denmark has recently been host to a flurry of 
climate-related conferences in the run-up to the UNFCCC's Conference 
of Parties (COP-15) meeting in December.  One of them, sponsored by 
the International Association of Research Universities and held here 
in Copenhagen, attracted international media attention, focused on 
scientific research updating trends (generally for the worse) since 
the issuance of the last IPCC report in 2007.  The Danish Prime 
Minister pledged to convey the gravity of new scientific data to his 
international counterparts. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The World Business Summit on Climate Change May 24-26 will 
be the next major gathering in Copenhagen.  Organizers, and Danish 
Climate and Energy Minister Connie Hedegaard, wish Special Envoy 
Todd Stern to participate.  Doing so would advance U.S. climate 
goals in advance of COP-15.  End Summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Several climate events recently took place in Denmark.  The 
first, hosted by Aarhus University March 5-7, was entitled "Beyond 
Kyoto--Addressing the Challenges of Climate Change."  That was 
quickly followed by a larger International Scientific Congress on 
International Association of Research Universities International 
Scientific Congress on "Climate Change, Global Risks, Challenges and 
Decisions" (www.climatecongress.ku.dk) held in Copenhagen from 10-12 
March.  The IARU group includes the University of Copenhagen, Yale, 
and UC Berkeley, among others.  More than 2,000 scientists attended, 
and their findings garnered major international media attention. 
Both these conferences were partially sponsored by the Danish 
Government.  A third conference in Copenhagen, sponsored by the 
Norwegian firm PointCarbon, took place March 17-19 and focused on 
the European carbon market.  The next major conference here will be 
the World Business Summit on Climate Change, May 24-26. 
 
Scientists Spotlight Worsening Trends 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) The IARU Congress was designed to highlight climate change 
scientific results achieved since the IPCC published its last 
report, in 2007.  That report's findings were not in question, but 
featured data that needed updating, according to organizer Prof. 
Katherine Richardson of the University of Copenhagen.  To emphasize 
that the IPCC report remained valid (if outdated), IPCC Chair 
Pachauri was a featured speaker at the Congress.  Preliminary 
conclusions from the Congress appear below, and will be published in 
a synthesis report to be published in June this year.  The synthesis 
report will be disseminated in National Geographic, Time, and 
Scientific American, as well as with electronic media. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Dr. Richardson summed up the lessons of the IARU Congress 
in the final session, and presented them symbolically to Danish 
Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen to inform COP-15 deliberations. 
 These included: 
 
--Climatic Trends:  Recent observations confirm that, given high 
rates of observed emissions, the worst-case IPCC scenario 
trajectories (or even worse) are being realized. 
 
--Social disruption:  Recent observations show that societies are 
highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor 
nations and communities particularly at risk.  Temperature rises 
above two degrees Celsius will be very difficult for contemporary 
societies to cope with, and will increase the level of climate 
disruption through the rest of the century. 
 
--Long-Term Strategy:  Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation 
based on coordinated global and regional action is required to avoid 
dangerous climate change regardless of how it is defined. Weaker 
targets for 2020 increase the risk of crossing tipping points and 
make the task of meeting 2050 targets more difficult. Delay in 
initiating effective mitigation actions increases significantly the 
long-term social and economic costs of both adaptation and 
mitigation. 
 
--Equity:  Climate change is having, and will have, strongly 
differential effects on people within and between countries and 
regions, on this generation and future generations, and on human 
societies and the natural world.  An effective, well-funded 
 
COPENHAGEN 00000139  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
adaptation safety net is required for those people least capable of 
coping with climate change impacts, and a common but differentiated 
mitigation strategy is needed to protect the poor and most 
vulnerable. 
 
--Inaction is Inexcusable:  There is no excuse for inaction.  We 
already have many tools and approaches (economic, technological, 
behavioral, management) to deal effectively with the climate change 
challenge. But they must be vigorously and widely implemented to 
achieve the societal transformation required to de-carbonize 
economies. 
 
--Meeting the Challenge:  To achieve the societal transformation 
required to meet the climate change challenge, we must overcome a 
number of significant constraints and seize critical opportunities. 
 
 
PM Message Gets Message 
----------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) Upon receiving these conclusions, Prime Minister Rasmussen 
said "It's imperative that we reach agreement in December. We have 
to lay out some long-term goals and the rich have to help the poor. 
Green growth is the future and if we fail, we fall."  Rasmussen 
thanked conference participants and committed to transmit the 
scientific consensus achieved in the Congress, saying science should 
be the basis of good policymaking.  Success at COP-15 would require 
intense negotiations at the highest levels, he said, including three 
'stepping stones:" 
--The G8 meeting in La Maddalena in July 
--The High Level UN Event in NY in September 
--Sep-Dec intensive UNFCCC negotiations 
 
¶7.  (U) Rasmussen encouraged heads of government to attend COP-15 
"to close the deal" which should include: 
--Targets (50% overall by 2050, including 80% for developed 
countries, and shorter term targets for 2020); 
--Funding (focused on developing countries, for tech transfer, 
forestry/land use and adaptation); and, 
--Verification (to measure/report/verify mitigation, finance and 
technology transfer). 
 
¶8.  (U) COP-15 would only be the beginning, PM Rasmussen concluded, 
setting a framework to share technology and promote deployment, 
which should be adjusted to focus on opportunities thereafter. 
Denmark's ambition is to become completely free of fossil fuels in 
the future, he concluded. 
 
UNFCCC's De Boer Defends Clean Development Mechanism 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶9.  (U) The opening session of the March 17-19 PointCarbon 
conference featured UNFCCC chief Yvo de Boer, who listed four issues 
that must be resolved prior to agreement at COP-15: 
--Ambitious midterm and long-term targets for developed countries. 
(He called Obama Administration goals for 2020 and 2050 "a first 
good offer."); 
--Clarity on nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing 
countries (these could come in a variety of forms, including 
sectoral goals, individual projects, efficiency goals, or national 
emissions goals); 
--Financial and technical support for mitigation and adaptation, 
going beyond voluntary contributions to more sustainable mechanisms; 
and, 
--A governance structure based on equity. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) De Boer criticized EU finance ministers as "unhelpfully" 
going beyond the Bali roadmap in calling on developing countries to 
formulate comprehensive national strategies to reduce emissions. 
The compromises in the roadmap were hard-won, he argued, the 
resulting agreement was fragile but must be respected.  He hoped the 
EU Council would return to the original Bali formulation of 15-30% 
reductions from "business as usual" in the developing countries. 
He claimed that "if we add up what China/India/Brazil are already 
doing to prevent climate change, it already exceeds what Europe is 
doing" and urged that COP-15 NOT be portrayed as an attempt to 
"bribe the reluctant." 
 
EC Favors Sectoral Approach over CDM 
------------------------------------ 
 
 
COPENHAGEN 00000139  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶11.  (SBU) EC deputy Environment DG Jos Delbeke, appearing on the 
same panel with de Boer, Delbeke said a recent EU troika visit to 
Japan and the U.S. provided an opportunity to share the EC financing 
proposal.  Delbeke said the tone from the Obama Administration is 
positive, but the EC awaits more details.  He hoped that a 
newly-revitalized US-EU high level dialogue on climate change could 
focus on issues like comparability of targets among developed 
countries, and the EC's proposed sectoral mechanism for developing 
countries. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Delbeke called for project-based Clean Development 
Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol to be replaced with a "sectoral 
carbon market crediting system" for developing countries focused on 
the power sector and other sectors exposed to international 
competition (e.g. steel making, cement).  The sectoral approach 
should provide a more comprehensive price signal, great 
environmental ambition level, lower transaction costs, and more 
ambitious benchmarks than the existing CDM. 
 
World Business Summit Next Big Event 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶13.  (SBU) The Copenhagen Climate Council, a Danish partnership of 
government/media/business, in cooperation with the UN Global 
Compact, the World Economic Forum, the World Business Council for 
Sustainable Development and others will host a World Business Summit 
on Climate Change May 24-26 in Copenhagen.  Confirmed speakers 
include UN Syg Ban ki-Moon, former VP Gore, EC President Barroso, 
UNFCCC head de Boer, and Danish Climate Minister Hedegaard. 
Organizers have invited S/E Stern to speak at the plenary session on 
the opening day of the conference on the subject of "Getting to 
Copenhagen" (invitation letter conveyed by email to OES on March 
13).  For her part, Minister Hedegaard has invited S/E Stern to 
participate in a "Corporate Ministerial Roundtable" on "corporate 
contributions to a new global deal" on May 26. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Though the USG was not officially represented at these 
recent conferences, President Obama was often praised for his 
commitment to address climate change.  S/E Stern's March 3 climate 
policy address was explicitly praised by Dr. Richardson at the IARU 
Congress.  PM Rasmussen raised the issue of midterm targets gently, 
without referring specifically to the U.S., by implying that simply 
setting ambitious 2050 goals was "not enough."  NGO contacts here 
are more direct, warning privately they will begin highlighting the 
lack of a credible U.S. midterm emissions reduction target.  The 
World Business Summit event offers an excellent opportunity for a 
USG climate policymaker to build on the positive reception of U.S. 
climate policies here, while enlisting international business 
support for an ambitious climate agreement at COP-15.  We recommend 
that S/E Stern take advantage of this opportunity by accepting these 
invitations, if possible. 
 
Action Request 
-------------- 
 
¶15.  For OES/EGC:  Please advise if S/E Stern will accept 
invitations to participate at the World Business Summit May 24-26. 
 
McCulley