VZCZCXRO0164
PP RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0032/01 0640643
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 050643Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0988
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1070

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000032 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR PHU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM KJUS TH
SUBJECT: REDS SPOIL TWO RALLIES, CANCEL ONE OF THEIR OWN 
 
REF: A. Bangkok 495 (Thai Farmers: Trying to Stand Out) 
     ¶B. Bangkok 486 (Thai Protest Update: Redshirts) 
     ¶C. Chiang Mai 24 (By-Elections, Reds and Migrants) 
     ¶D. Chiang Mai 18 (Tougher Times Ahead) 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000032  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; please handle accordingly. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Summary and Comment 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The last two weeks of February saw a flurry of 
activity by pro-Thaksin "redshirt" groups in two northern 
provinces.  The leading Rak Chiang Mai 51 (RCM51) group 
disrupted the rallies of two apolitical groups (corn farmers and 
gay activists), and redshirts cancelled a rally due to 
infighting among various local pro-Thaksin groups.   Meanwhile, 
redshirt threats to prevent newly appointed provincial and 
regional police officials from taking power did not materialize. 
 With the new chiefs now in place, police contacts expect a less 
lenient attitude toward pro-Thaksin supporters, and more 
rigorous enforcement of the law against political groups in 
general. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Comment: Disrupting demonstrations by corn farmers and 
gay pride groups that have nothing to do either with former PM 
Thaksin or the current Government indicates that redshirt groups 
up north are in search of a cause cilhbre in an effort to 
maintain whatever momentum they still have.  Absent the speedy 
achievement of key redshirt goals -- the resignation of either 
PM Abhisit Vechajiva, FM Kasit Piromya or both; reinstatement of 
the 1997 constitution; and House dissolution followed by 
elections -- the northern redshirts may weaken significantly as 
the current governing coalition consolidates its hold on power. 
We will continue to track the northern redshirts' next moves, 
paying particular attention to indications of the movement's 
strength.  End Summary and Comment. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Splits Taking Their Toll 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) As reported (Refs C and D), splits in pro-Thaksin 
forces in Chiang Mai are becoming more evident.  On February 21, 
redshirt groups had to cancel a rally planned for Chiang Mai's 
main sports complex when the Bangkok-based United Front for 
Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) withdrew its financial 
support amidst squabbles between RCM51 and two break-away groups 
-- the "Love Thaksin People of Thailand," and "Redshirted New 
Blood".  Police and other provincial contacts told us the 
redshirt groups were unable to pay the stadium rental fee of 
approximately $8,350.  They also told us that rally-goers, who 
used to be promised more than $10 in return for their 
participation, were promised about half that amount this time, 
and therefore decided not to participate.  We also note press 
reports stating that on February 12, RCM51 members brandishing 
knives and batons twice clashed with supporters of the two 
break-away groups, resulting in minor injuries on both sides. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) According to different police contacts, another sign 
of the splits within the northern reds and potentially of 
weakness in the movement is the dwindling number of supporters 
from the north that the three pro-Thaksin groups have been able 
to mobilize to attend rallies in Bangkok.  Ahead of the UDD's 
February 24-28 rally at Government House (Ref B), reportedly 
only a few van-loads of supporters traveled from Chiang Mai to 
Bangkok.  On previous occasions, police told us the contingent 
tended to fill several large double-decker busses. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Separately, we learned that the new Regional Police 
Commissioner and Chiang Mai Provincial Police Chief, both of 
whom are widely considered to be sympathetic to the 
pro-government Peoples Alliance for Democracy (PAD), assumed 
their duties uneventfully on February 16 -- despite previous 
RCM51 threats to physically prevent them from taking office (Ref 
D).  The new Region 5 Commissioner stated February 27 that 
preventing and controlling "conflict" of political ideas was one 
of his top four priorities.  He also warned there would be no 
double standard regarding political groups that violate the 
rights of others or disturb the peace by excessively exercising 
their right to political protest.  The police would be more 
vigilant with regard to political rallies, he added, and more 
accountable in following through on cases related to them. 
(Note: These comments are consistent with recent statements by 
Chiang Mai's Vice Governor, per Ref D). 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Reds Seek Non-Political Targets 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000032  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶6.  (U) Meanwhile, RCM51 was busy disrupting demonstrations by 
two other essentially apolitical groups -- corn farmers and gay 
rights activists.  On February 19, RCM51 members asked corn 
farmers protesting the lack of government price supports in the 
wake of falling market prices to join their ranks and fight for 
former PM Thaksin.  When the farmers refused, heated arguments 
broke out, according to police and press contacts, nearly 
resulting in a fist fight.  Cooler heads eventually prevailed, 
and both groups dispersed.  (Note: Protests by farmers at this 
time of year are not unusual; per Ref A.) 
 
¶7.  (U) On February 21, about 80 RCM51 supporters carrying 
banners stating "Gay Parade get out!  Don't destroy our 
beautiful culture" confronted HIV/AIDS activists from Chiang Mai 
and other provinces at a gay pride parade near the Chiang Mai 
Governor's residence.  According to press reports, the RCM51 
members shouted anti-homosexual rhetoric and hurled plastic bags 
containing pig's blood at the 800-strong marchers.  The 
sponsoring organization, the Gender Diversity Network, 
reluctantly cancelled the rally when the local police chief 
expressed concern that his 50-officer squad would not be able to 
handle the situation if the parade went ahead. 
 
¶8.  (U) On February 28 in Phitsanulok Province, local redshirt 
groups and RCM51 members clashed with locals at a concert 
organized by PAD supporters, but police prevented any violence. 
 
¶9.  (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok. 
MORROW