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Viewing cable 09CHENNAI76, BHARAT BALLOT 09: MARCH 12 SOUTHERN SNAPSHOTS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09CHENNAI76 2009-03-12 07:47 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Consulate Chennai
VZCZCXRO7466
RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCG #0076/01 0710747
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 120747Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2138
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3547
RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0211
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEILB/NCTC WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CHENNAI 000076 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O.  12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: MARCH 12 SOUTHERN SNAPSHOTS 
 
REF:  A) CHENNAI 066; B) CHENNAI 059 
 
1. (U) Below is a compilation of election highlights from Consulate 
General Chennai that did not feature in our other reporting on 
India's upcoming elections: 
 
 -- Tamil Nadu:  Congress/DMK partnership set to reprise 2004's 
grand alliance? 
 
 -- Tamil Nadu:  a brief fast for Sri Lankan Tamils 
 
 -- Kerala:  infighting over candidates hurts Congress's chances to 
rout CPM 
 
 -- Kerala:  Rahul's big campaign speech doesn't meet expectations 
 
 -- Andhra Pradesh:  Election Commission symbol decision hurts Praja 
Rajyam's prospects 
 
Tamil Nadu:  Congress/DMK partnership 
set to reprise 2004's grand alliance? 
------------ 
 
1.  (U) In 2004 the DMK and Congress parties swept the parliamentary 
elections by assembling a broad-based coalition of parties which 
included the Tamil Nadu-based PMK and MDMK parties and the state 
affiliates of the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party 
of India (Marxist).  But the alliance crumbled over time:  the MDMK 
defected to the opposition shortly after the 2004 elections; the DMK 
and PMK broke ties in June 2008 after a protracted feud; and the 
communist parties withdrew support from the Congress-led United 
Progressive Alliance (UPA) in August 2008 over U.S.-India civil 
nuclear cooperation.  Tamil Nadu's media is now abuzz with rumors 
that Congress and the DMK are on the verge of constructing another 
broad coalition by bringing the PMK back into the fold and replacing 
the MDMK and communist parties with an important new player on the 
Tamil Nadu scene, the DMDK founded by Tamil film star Vijayakanth. 
 
 
2.  (U) The hard feelings that led to the DMK-PMK split, largely the 
result of protracted sniping between the parties' respective leaders 
(DMK Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi and PMK founder S. Ramadoss), 
appear to have been smoothed over.  On March 6, Ambumani Ramadoss, 
son of PMK founder S. Ramadoss and the Union Minister of Health and 
Family Welfare in the UPA government, suggested that the PMK would 
stay with Congress and the DMK, telling a press conference that "the 
UPA will come back to power."  Rumors of Vijayakanth's DMDK joining 
the Congress/DMK combine started with the visit of the Tamil Nadu 
Congress Committee President to a senior DMDK leader's house. 
Speculation increased when Union Minister for Statistics and Program 
Implementation G.K. Vasan, who is the Tamil Nadu Congress Party's 
most prominent leader, said "good news will be coming soon." 
Comment:  Although the makeup of pre-poll alliances is difficult to 
predict, especially in Tamil Nadu's free-wheeling non-ideological 
environment, these are strong indications that the DMK and Congress 
are on the road to replicating another version of the broad-based 
coalition that swept Tamil Nadu's parliamentary elections in 2004. 
The combination of DMK, Congress, PMK, and DMDK would be a very 
formidable one that would go a long way to overcoming the 
anti-incumbency, corruption allegations, and concern for Sri Lankan 
Tamils that weigh down the DMK and Congress in Tamil Nadu.  End 
comment. 
 
Tamil Nadu:  a brief fast for Sri Lankan Tamils 
------------ 
 
3. (SBU) Tamil Nadu Opposition leader J. Jayalalithaa held a 
widely-publicized eight hour fast on March 10 condemning the central 
and state governments for remaining "mute spectators" to the killing 
of Tamils in Sri Lanka.  She demanded an immediate ceasefire on the 
island and highlighted the severe shortage of food and medicine 
facing Sri Lanka's Tamils.  While Jayalalithaa fasted in Chennai, 
senior AIADMK officials led similar hunger-strikes throughout Tamil 
Nadu and the party collected donations to provide relief to the 
Tamils.  Many in Tamil Nadu saw the brief fast as a political stunt. 
 Jayalalithaa is seen as relatively unresponsive to the concerns of 
Sri Lanka's Tamils largely on account of her history of criticizing 
the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.  Her decision to fast over Sri 
 
CHENNAI 00000076  002 OF 003 
 
 
Lanka shows the recent resonance of the issue in the state's 
politics (ref B); despite her own ambivalence about Sri Lanka, 
Jayalalithaa senses an opportunity to further embarrass DMK Chief 
Minister Karunanidhi.  Her rival has long professed his solidarity 
with the Sri Lankan Tamils (seeing himself as "the Father of World 
Tamils") but has come under fire as of late for not sufficiently 
wielding his influence in New Delhi to pressure Sri Lanka to agree 
to a ceasefire.  Jayalalithaa's effort to exploit the Sri Lanka 
issue, however, has been received with a healthy dose of cynicism. 
One internet poster commented that "a day-long fast is nothing. 
Most people in Tamil Nadu eat only every other day . . . Come on 
sister, FAST UNTO DEATH." 
 
Kerala:  infighting over candidates 
hurts Congress's chances to rout CPM 
------------ 
 
4.  (SBU) The Kerala Congress Party's trouble with candidate 
selection is threatening its ability to take advantage of the 
struggles of its rival, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (ref 
C).  Candidates with the best chance of winning are having trouble 
getting party tickets because of intraparty rivalries and interest 
group pressure tactics.  A senior media contact told post that the 
Congress-led United Democratic Front could squander its upper hand 
in the upcoming elections.  He cited the example of Ernakulam 
(Cochin) where a strong candidate in the Latin Catholic-dominated 
constituency -- the up-and-coming Hybee Eden, President of the 
National Students Union of India and member of the Latin Catholic 
church -- is having difficulty securing a ticket.  Eden is the son 
of a former Member of Parliament from Ernakulam who won every 
election he ever contested there.  According to a media contact, KV 
Thomas, a long-time Congress party leader from the Latin Catholic 
church, spent several days camped out in New Delhi lobbying against 
Eden.  Thomas apparently fears losing his position as the preeminent 
Latin Catholic leader in the Kerala Congress party. 
 
5. (SBU) In Kerala's Trichur constituency, the dominant Syrian 
Catholic Church is in a bitter tussle with Congress's state 
leadership over candidate selection.  The Church supports Tom 
Vadakkan, a Secretary in the All India Congress Committtee (AICC) 
who operates mostly out of Delhi.  Many local Congress leaders view 
Vadakkan as a candidate imposed on the state party by New Delhi and 
lacking experience with Kerala's grassroots.  Vadakkan was dressed 
down at a Congress party meeting in New Delhi by a party member who 
said "chai-walas (tea-boys) and sweepers of the AICC should not be 
made candidates in Kerala."  Extensive media coverage in Kerala of 
the "chai-wala" insult exacerbated Vadakkan's humiliation.  The 
Church has mounted a pressure campaign on Vadakkan's behalf, leading 
State Congress President Ramesh Chennithala to risk the ire of this 
important Congress constituency suggesting the Church needed to stay 
out of the candidate selection debate.  The Congress party finds 
itself in a tough spot with the Vadakkan candidacy as a decision 
either way will alienate some part of its core support base -- 
either Syrian Catholics or committed party workers. 
 
Kerala:  Rahul doesn't live up to high expectations 
------------ 
 
6. (SBU) Rahul Gandhi headlined a massive rally in 
Thiruvananthapuram kicking off the Kerala Congress Party's election 
campaign.  The tens of thousands of Congress supporters in 
attendance gave Gandhi a rousing reception hailing him as 
"tomorrow's leader."  Top Congress leaders, including Defense 
Minister A.K. Antony, told the crowd that Gandhi, a symbol of youth 
and dynamism, would lead the country forward.  Addressing the rally, 
Gandhi emphasized his efforts to change Indian politics, starting 
with the Youth Congress and the National Students Union of India. 
Journalists told post that despite the crowd's enthusiastic cheering 
for the young leader, Gandhi failed to deliver the stirring 
performance that the crowd expected. 
 
Andhra Pradesh:  Election Commission 
symbol decision hurts Praja Rajyam's prospects 
------------ 
 
7.  (U) Praja Rajyam, the political party founded in 2008 by popular 
Telugu film star Chiranjeevi, suffered a major setback as the 
Election Commission ruled that the new party is not eligible for a 
 
CHENNAI 00000076  003 OF 003 
 
 
"common symbol" for the upcoming elections.  The ruling bars the 
party's candidates from using a common emblem to identify themselves 
on the ballot.  The Election Commission found that Praja Rajyam did 
not meet the requirement of having earned a minimum prescribed 
percentage of the votes in at least one previous election.  The 
party claims the requirement is unconstitutional, arguing that it is 
unfair to deny a common symbol to a party which has registered, by 
its own count, 5 million members in the state. 
8.  (U) Symbols are critical in Indian elections because the 
substantial portion of the electorate that is illiterate relies on 
them to identify their preferred candidate.  Praja Rajyam is 
unlikely to prevail in its effort to overturn the Election 
Commission's decision, which will leave the party in a serious bind. 
 Without a common symbol the party's candidates will have to run as 
a series of independent candidates, each with their own symbol 
assigned to them by lottery.  Voter confusion will be likely as they 
will have a difficult time identifying Praja Rajyam candidates. 
After the denial of Praja Rajyam's common symbol it is difficult to 
imagine the party making a major impact on the upcoming elections. 
 
SIMKIN