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RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CHENNAI 000070 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O.  12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM IN
SUBJECT:  BHARAT BALLOT 09:  SETTING THE SCENE FOR SOUTH INDIA'S 
VOTE 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Following the Election Commission's announcement 
of national election dates (April 16 - May 13), we have composed 
brief political scenesetters for the four South Indian states: 
Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu.  These four 
states, with a combined population of roughly 250 million, account 
for nearly a quarter of India's population.  They are linguistically 
distinct and each possesses unique political dynamics.  Kerala's 
election will be held on April 16, Andhra Pradesh on April 16 and 
23, Karnataka on April 23 and 30, and Tamil Nadu on May 13.  Votes 
from across India will be counted on May 16.  South India was 
critical for the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in 2004; 
the alliance scored decisive victories in the region's biggest 
states, winning 35 of 42 seats in Andhra Pradesh and all 39 of Tamil 
Nadu's seats.   In the coming weeks, we will submit reports that 
will highlight many of the key issues and complexities that drive 
politics in this critical region.  End Summary. 
 
Andhra Pradesh: Congress defending unprecedented 2004 gains 
---------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Andhra Pradesh is the largest state in South India, with 42 
seats in the Lok Sabha.  In addition to the national election, it is 
holding state elections concurrently, potentially heralding a 
complete transformation of the state's political representation. 
The Congress party is a major player in Andhra Pradesh and defending 
large majorities on both the state and national level against a 
coalition of several local parties.  The BJP, as in most of South 
India, has a very weak presence in the state. 
 
¶3. (SBU) In the 2004 national and state elections, the Congress 
Party, in concert with the Telangana Rastra Samiti (TRS), defeated 
the longtime ruling party, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and secured 
remarkable majorities:  Congress alone won 63 percent of the state's 
legislative assembly seats and 29 of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats. 
 The TRS has, however, since allied with the TDP.  The 2009 
elections will be a three-siQ contest: the incumbent Congress, a 
"Grand Alliance" of TDP, TRS, and a host of smaller parties, and a 
coalition led by Praja Rajyam, an untested new party formed by a 
popular actor, Chiranjeevi. 
 
¶4. (SBU) In advance of the 2009 elections, the issue of statehood 
for Telangana, a predominantly rural region in northern Andhra 
Pradesh that contains the state capital, Hyderabad, has emerged as 
the electoral focal point.  The Grand Alliance has coalesced in 
favor of statehood - even the TDP, which had long opposed a separate 
state.  Congress's statements have remained vague and noncommittal 
on the issue, despite having won office in 2004 on the promise of an 
independent Telangana.  Its ability to appease Telangana supporters 
or shift attention to the dizzying array of social programs 
implemented by its popular Chief Minister YSR Reddy will be a key 
determinant of its electoral prospects in Andhra Pradesh. 
 
Karnataka: BJP's southern hope 
---------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The three primary contenders in Karnataka politics are the 
two main national parties (Congress and the BJP) and a local party, 
the Janata Dal--Secular (JDS).  Karnataka is the only state in South 
India where both of India's main national parties are dominant 
political players.  Karnataka has 28 Members of Parliament.  The BJP 
won big in the 2004 elections, taking 18 seats to Congress's 8 and 2 
for the JDS.  (Resignations and by-elections have since altered 
these numbers to BJP - 11, Congress - 9, and JDS - 1, leaving 7 
seats vacant.). 
 
¶6. (SBU) The division of lower-caste and Muslim votes between 
Congress and the JDS has undermined Congress's performance in recent 
elections.  The BJP has succeeded in attracting significant support, 
particularly from the Lingayat caste, the largest in the state.  The 
dominance of the Lingayat caste in Karnataka's northern districts 
serves the BJP well in India's electoral system, which is based on 
electoral districts (like in the United States).  In the 2004 
national election, the BJP secured 18 parliamentary seats while 
winning  only 28.3 percent of the statewide popular vote.  The 
dispersed nature of the Congress Party's support, however, meant 
that it won only eight seats despite taking 35.2 percent of the 
statewide vote..  The BJP is on a roll in Karnataka, having risen 
from electoral irreQance only a few years ago to winning a 
plurality of seats (110 of 224) in the May 2008 state assembly 
elections, allowing it to create the first BJP-led state government 
in South India with the support of several independent legislators. 
The party also gained 5 seats in December state-level by-elections, 
thereby achieving a slight majority in the legislative assembly. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The recent redistricting process in Karnataka has altered 
the electoral landscape.  There are now four constituencies reserved 
for Scheduled Castes (also known as Dalits), up from two in 2004, 
and two for Scheduled Tribes (known as Adivasis or indigenous 
 
CHENNAI 00000070  002 OF 003 
 
 
people), up from none.  In addition, two rural constituencies have 
merged (Udupi and Chikmagalur in Western Karnataka) and Bangalore 
has added a new constituency:  Bangalore Central.  It is not yet 
clear exactly how these changes will play out electorally, but the 
additional reservations for Scheduled constituencies ought to be a 
boon for the Congress Party. 
 
Kerala:  Congress taking on a weakened CPM 
---------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Kerala, the smallest of the South Indian states, has 20 
parliamentary seats.  Elections in Kerala are binary contests 
between two rival coalitions, one led by the Congress party and the 
other by the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM).  (The CPM is 
the largest of India's leftist parties and the leader of the 
national leftist coalition, known as the Left Front.)  The BJP, 
unable ideologically to ally with either coalition, has attempted to 
establish a foothold, but has thus far failed to elect a single BJP 
candidate in either state or national elections. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The CPM-led coalition, the Left Democratic Front (LDF), 
dominated the most recent national and state elections in Kerala, 
held in 2004 and 2006, respectively.  In 2004, it won 18 of Kerala's 
Lok Sabha seats (up from nine in the previous election in 1999), and 
in 2006 it took control of the state assembly, winning 98 out of 140 
seats. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Unfortunately for the CPM, the state party in recent 
months has been beset by infighting between its two most prominent 
leaders, making the government appear ineffective and incoherent. 
Congress defeats in 2004 and 2006 were attributed to prolonged 
infighting between state factions, and the CPM may pay a similar 
price in 2009.  Kerala has a solid electoral record of throwing out 
incumbents. 
 
Tamil Nadu:  National parties overshadowed by local personalities 
---------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Tamil Nadu has 39 Members of Parliament, the second 
largest representation among the south Indian states.  Tamil Nadu is 
dominated by a spectrum of local parties, including the Dravida 
Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra 
Kazhagam (AIADMK), and an array of smaller Leftist and Tamil 
nationalist parties.  The Congress Party has a significant presence, 
though only as a second-tier coalition member, while the BJP has 
proven unable to win a single national or state seat on its own. 
Over the past few electoral cycles, DMK and/or AIADMK support has 
been critical for both Congress and BJP coalition-building in the 
Lok Sabha. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Fluid state-level coalitions characterize Tamil Nadu's 
parliamentary and state elections.  In the 2004 national election, 
Congress and the DMK, allied with a host of smaller parties, won all 
39 of Tamil Nadu's seats in the Lok Sabha.  The DMK-Congress 
alliance in the 2006 state legislative assembly election again 
defeated the AIADMK-led state government. Since then, however, all 
parties save Congress have left the DMK's ruling coalition, with 
some of the departees realigning themselves with the AIADMK. 
 
¶13. (SBU) The ongoing war in Sri Lanka will be an influential factor 
in the 2009 election.  The state's predominantly Tamil population 
has been increasingly outraged by the worsening plight of Sri 
Lanka's Tamils.  Increasingly, it is becoming acceptable in 
political discourse in Tamil Nadu to voice support for the 
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), the terrorist group 
battling the Sri Lankan government to create an independent Tamil 
homeland.  This has put the state's DMK leadership into a difficult 
position, as it struggles to mollify its angry constituents with a 
suitably pro-Tamil position while not alienating its only remaining 
ally, the Congress party, by departing from national policy toward 
Sri Lanka, which treats the LTTE as a banned terrorist organization. 
 
 
¶14. (SBU) A potential wild card in the elections is the emergence of 
a new party led by Vijaykanth, a popular actor.  Although his Desiya 
Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) is largely untested at the polls, 
some pundits expect that it may receive ten percent of the vote, 
making it a potentially key ally for either the DMK or AIADMK to 
cement a victory. 
 
Comment:  Interesting times ahead 
---------- 
 
¶15. (SBU) Comment:  As India approaches the start of its 2009 
national election, the southern states offer informative case 
studies of Indian politics at large.  Their wealth of regional 
parties formed on ethnic, caste, or religious affiliations, 
sometimes ruled by iron-fisted cults of personality, make 
 
CHENNAI 00000070  003 OF 003 
 
 
coalition-building and seat-sharing arrangements just as -- if not 
more -- important than winning the voters' votes.  Their ideological 
malleability and leadership-centered decision-making mean that it is 
very difficult to ascertain what kinds of alliances, partnerships, 
or other cooperative relationships are likely.  In addition, the 
possibility of "game-changing" events, especially on the Sri Lanka 
issue for Tamil Nadu or the Telangana issue for Andhra Pradesh, 
before the election make it even more difficult to know what exactly 
to expect from India's democratic exercise.  In the coming weeks, we 
will explore issues of electoral relevance -- from personalities to 
parties, and from tolerance to Telangana -- in an attempt to explain 
some of the many layers of complexity that help make up the 
electoral machinations in the southern cone of the world's largest 
democracy.  End Comment. 
 
SIMKIN