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R 231535Z MAR 09
FM USEU BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 000413 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN
SUBJECT:  AFTER THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL: BARROSO HEADING TOWARD SECOND 
TERM AT COMMISSION'S HELM 
 
REF: USEU-Today 3/18/09 
¶1.  (U) SUMMARY.  Last week's European Council meeting appears to 
have been fruitful for Jose Manuel Barroso.  Contacts among the EU 
leaders seemed to have helped Barroso regain what may prove decisive 
momentum in his campaign to be reappointed President of the EU 
Commission.  His current five-year term is due to expire at the end 
of October 2009.  END SUMMARY. 
¶2. (SBU) At a March 19 gathering in Brussels ahead of the European 
Council, political leaders belonging to national parties affiliated 
with the European People's Party (EPP) gave a new boost to Barroso's 
candidacy.  EPP President Wilfried Martens told reporters that "Mr. 
Barroso has a broad appeal in all the main political families and is 
by far the best candidate for this position..." (Note: Neither 
Sarkozy nor his Prime Minister Francois Fillon, whose name has been 
mentioned in some circles as a possible alternative to Barroso, 
attended the EPP meeting on Thursday.  End Note). 
¶3. (U) A rival gathering of the European Socialist leaders on March 
19 failed to agree on a possible left-wing candidate for the 
Commission Presidency (the name of former Danish Social-Democrat PM 
Poul Nyrup Rasmussen had been mentioned in that respect).  Consensus 
among Socialist/Social-Democrats proved impossible as some of their 
leaders, including UK's Brown, Portugal's Socrates, Spain's 
Zapatero, have already voiced support for a renewal of Barroso's 
mandate.  Finnish PM Vanhanen (neither EPP nor Socialist) also 
repeatedly called for a renewal of Barroso's mandate. 
¶4. (U) For its part, the European Parliament made it clear through 
its President Hans-Gert Poettering on March 19 that it was in favor 
of EU leaders agreeing on their nominee for the Commission 
Presidency in June so that Parliament can hold its Treaty-required 
confirmation vote on the nominee in mid-July.  Poettering stressed 
that the choice of the Commission President "must reflect the 
outcome of the European elections" and that "for this to happen, 
consultations between the Council Presidency and the European 
Parliament will be necessary."  Based on the text of his address to 
EU leaders and his own clarifications at a press conference, 
Poettering served notice that Parliament would be "willing to 
conduct consultations with the Presidency (of the EU Council) after 
the elections and before the June (18-19) meeting of the European 
Council." Poettering implied that such consultations could happen 
around June 16-17, taking account of the delay necessary for the 
newly-elected Parliament to organize itself. 
¶5. (SBU) There was a rumor in last week's European Council corridors 
that the June 18-19 meeting of the European Council could be 
postponed for a week.  When questioned about it at the final press 
conference, Czech PM/European Council chair Mirek Topolanek 
demurred, noting that the question was "not discussed."  As for 
Poettering's insistence that the leaders should pronounce in June, 
Topolanek observed this was not a proposal from Poettering (as the 
questioner and the EP President implied) but a decision from the 
December 2008 European Council. 
¶6. (SBU) At the end of 2008, EU leaders actually agreed they would 
decide on the next Commission President at their June 2009 Summit, 
shortly after the European elections.   However, French President 
Nicolas Sarkozy cast doubt on this timetable by suggesting earlier 
this month that the appointment should only be decided upon after 
another Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, which is set 
scheduled (but with no precise date) for Fall 2009.  (Comment: 
Sarkozy, who had been forced to adjust the terms of his government's 
plan to assist the French car industry in consultations with the 
Commission last month, appears to have toned down his public backing 
of the Commission President in the run-up to the Euro-elections, 
knowing that his political opponents will use the campaign to 
criticize the policies of the Barroso Commission. End Comment) 
¶7.  (SBU) The March 19-20 European Council and side meetings to it 
appear to have reinforced the utility of choosing a Commission 
President shortly after the June Euro-elections in order limit 
political uncertainties about the holders of key EU positions in the 
middle of a deepening economic crisis.  Provided that the EEP group 
retains its dominant position in the European Parliament elected on 
June 4-7 (a reasonably safe assumption, according to opinion polls), 
this plays into the hands of the incumbent and front-runner Barroso. 
 To be sure, Barroso would like his mandate to be renewed as early 
as possible instead of seeing his fate hanging on the future of the 
Lisbon Treaty and a more comprehensive bargaining on nominations to 
top-level EU jobs to be created under the Lisbon Treaty. 
 
MURRAY