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FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8657
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 000293 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS EUR/WE KATHERINE SHARP 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BE
SUBJECT: FRANCOPHONE LIBERAL REYNDERS EYES JUNE REGIONAL 
ELECTIONS 
 
¶1. Summary: In the upcoming June European and Regional 
elections, the Francophone Liberal (MR) party, led by Didier 
Reynders, seeks to become the number one party in the Walloon 
and Brussels regional governments.  The MR's stronghold is 
Brussels, but Wallonia remains a contested area.  Reynders 
has been focusing on strategies to ensure the best possible 
outcome.  Concerned with a challenge by well-known, 
conservative Fleming Rudy Aernoudt's participation on the 
Francophone ballot, Reynders invited Aernoudt to join the MR 
ticket.  This caused tension in the MR from its nationalist 
wing, the Francophone Democratic Front (FDF).  Forced to 
choose between the FDF and Aernoudt, Reynders abruptly struck 
Aernoudt off the ticket.  A second part of Reynders, 
strategy is to form a coalition with the Christian Democrats 
(CDH), who have remained committed to a coalition with the 
Socialists.  End Summary. 
 
RECENT FRANCOPHONE ELECTORAL AND POLITICAL HISTORY 
¶2. The MR has tried for decades to dislodge the Socialists 
from their position as the strongest party in Francophone 
Belgium.  In the nineties, then MR leader Louis Michel, 
attempted to form a coalition with the CDH, but the effort 
never succeeded.  Michel instead joined the federal and 
regional governments with the Socialists in 1999.  In 2004, 
the MR continued its efforts to recruit defectors from the 
CDH, and thereby increase its numbers until the MR 
outnumbered the PS.  As a result, Socialist Party (PS) 
President Elio Di Rupo considered forming a PS-CDH regional 
coalition that excluded the MR.  The MR viewed this as a 
&betrayal" and began the continuing "open warfare" between 
the MR and PS.  Tension between the two parties heightened 
when the PS lost the Namur and Charleroi municipal elections 
in 2006. 
¶3. In the upcoming June 7 regional and European elections the 
Federal Deputy, Prime Minister, and Finance Minister Reynders 
hopes to make the MR the leading party in Wallonia and the 
Brussels region.  In the 2004 Walloon regional elections the 
PS won 36.9 percent of the popular vote and the MR 24.3 
percent; in the Brussels region the PS beat the MR by less 
than 1%. By 2007 the MR.  In the 2007 federal elections, the 
MR defeated the PS in Wallonia 31.2 percent to 29.5 percent; 
in Brussels the MR outpolled the PS by a ten percent margin. 
The MR was helped by a series of political scandals among the 
PS in Wallonia.  In June, the main area of contention will 
once again be Wallonia, where the MR will try to repeat its 
federal success at the regional level.  The Brussels region 
has become an MR stronghold. 
CURIOUS COMPETITION FROM A FLEMING 
¶4. Reynders was confronted with an unusual electoral decision 
in 2008, when the fiercely pro-Belgian Fleming Rudy Aernoudt, 
who had moved to Wallonia, decided to run as a candidate in 
the Walloon regional and European elections.  Aernoudt is 
well known for leaking revelations about his former boss, 
Flemish Regional Minister Fientje Moerman.  After his exile 
from Flemish politics, he moved to Wallonia to become 
chief-of-staff to then MR Walloon Regional Minister of 
Economy Serge Kubla.  Aernoudt is a conservative, free 
enterprise advocate and is no real threat to Reynders' party, 
but Reynders did not want to take any chances on losing a few 
percentage points in the total vote and offered the popular 
Aernoudt a spot on his ticket.  The Francophone nationalist 
wing of the MR in the Brussels region, the anti-Flemish 
Francophone Democratic Front (FDF), strongly opposed 
Aernoudt's addition to the MR list.  The FDF is a relentless 
advocate of a greater (Francophone) Brussels capital region, 
to which Aernoudt is opposed.  There are also significant 
differences between the FDF and Aernoudt on social policy. 
Forced to choose between the two, Reynders pulled Aernoudt 
off the MR ticket. 
¶5. Comment: Reynders has long been considered one of the 
country's finest political strategists.   However his erratic 
turn about in the Aernoudt episode, his handling of the 
financial crisis, and the criticism of the finance ministry 
and tax bureaucracy have tarnished his image.  The brilliant 
strategist may have a problem defeating the Socialists 
decisively on the June 7.  His recent problems might also 
make the CDH less comfortable with his dream MR-CDH 
coalition.  Reynders could well end up swallowing his pride 
and reaching out to the Socialists on June 8 to form an 
MR-PS-CDH coalition. 
BUSH 
.