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DE RUEHSL #0143/01 0810935
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O 220935Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2402
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000143 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR AND EUR/CE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV LO
SUBJECT: SLOVAK PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: GASPAROVIC AND RADICOVA 
ADVANCE TO SECOND ROUND 
 
REF: BRATISLAVA 115 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Incumbent President Ivan Gasparovic and 
center-right opposition candidate Iveta Radicova have advanced to 
the second round of the Slovak presidential elections.  Gasparovic 
took 46.7 percent of the vote in the March 21 first round, with 
Radicova receiving 38 percent in the seven-candidate field. 
Gasparovic will be favored to win the April 4 run-off election, but 
Radicova's reformist message, strong showing in major cities, and 
overwhelming support among the Hungarian-speaking minority in 
southern Slovakia suggests that a well-organized get-out-the-vote 
campaign could produce a close finish.  Gasparovic will continue to 
take advantage of all the advantages of incumbency (such attending 
the upcoming NATO Summit in Strasbourg) to emphasize his credentials 
as the sitting head of state, and he can count on the strong support 
of popular Prime Minister Robert Fico and his ruling Smer party. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) Incumbent President Ivan Gasparovic garnered 46.7 percent of 
the vote March 21 in the first round of the Slovak presidential 
elections. He was followed by Iveta Radicova, supported by 38 
percent of voters.  Turnout was moderate, with approximately 44 
percent of the potential electorate going to the polls on a chilly 
but largely sunny day throughout most of the country.  No other 
candidate received more than five percent of the vote in the 
seven-person field.  Gasparovic and Radicova will square off April 4 
in the second round of voting. 
 
¶3. (U) The Slovak presidential campaign, which did not legally begin 
until March 6 (reftel), was almost too short to be substantive.  As 
one Slovak analyst noted, "this isn't really a campaign, it's just 
an introduction to the candidates."  As such, the meatiest issues to 
surface during the short campaign period dealt with the candidates' 
past professional (and, in some cases, personal) lives, rather than 
their plans for the future.  Moreover, because the powers of the 
Slovak president are largely protocolary and ceremonial, candidates 
were limited in their ability to make significant commitments or 
offer any real policy prescriptions. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Gasparovic, who entered 2009 with near-universal name 
recognition and a significant lead in the polls, ran a classic 
incumbent's race.  In the run-up to the start of the formal campaign 
period he increased his official public (and thus televised) 
appearances, linked himself to the extremely popular government of 
Prime Minister Robert Fico, and tried to avoid being drawn into any 
sort of controversy.  The one exception to this approach was 
Gasparovic's largely symbolic refusal to sign a law mandating that 
school textbooks in Hungarian-speaking regions include both 
Hungarian and Slovak place names for cities and towns; while 
probably heartfelt, his nominal veto also appeared designed to 
appeal to nationalist voters, emphasizing his role as a head of 
state defending the (ethnic Slovak) nation.  And with the global 
economic crisis now being felt more directly and painfully in 
Slovakia, his recent campaign messaging emphasized his commitment to 
social welfare policies, as well as the importance of continuity in 
the presidency during a time of financial uncertainty. 
 
¶5. (U) Radicova, a former Minister of Labor, Social Affairs, and 
Family in the government of ex-Prime Minister Dzurinda and a member 
of his center-right SDKU party, adopted a "stay above the fray" 
approach and refused to engage in personal attacks on her main 
opponent.  But when she promised that, if elected, she would pursue 
a cooperative relationship with Fico and his social democratic 
government, she had to contend with Fico's caustic reply that he 
could never be able to work with her.  She also faced vocal 
opposition from some elements of the Catholic church -- most 
significantly the Bishop of Banska Bystrica -- for her pro-choice 
views on abortion and her willingness to accept certain gay social 
and civil rights. 
 
¶6. (U) During a series of televised "debates" (which, like their 
American counterparts, were little more than joint interviews), 
Gasparovic faced some critical questions about his past.  Frantisek 
Miklosko (a former Christian Democrat who eventually finished third, 
with 5.4 percent of the vote) pressed Gasparovic on his involvement 
in some of the more controversial events of the notorious Meciar 
era.  Gasparovic had served as second-in-command within Meciar's 
HZDS party from 1992-1998, before the two had a very public and 
bitter falling out.  Miklosko pointedly questioned Gasparovic's role 
in the amnesties granted those involved in the 1995 kidnapping of 
then-President Kovac's son (widely believed to have been ordered by 
Meciar) and the illegal and extra-constitutional expulsion of a 
dissident HZDS deputy from the Slovak parliament in 1997. 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: Despite some skeletons in Gasparovic's closet, his 
close ties with the ever-popular Fico and the significant advantages 
of incumbency have given him a first round win, although not an 
out-right victory.  Radicova ran a modern, professional campaign, 
experimenting with social networking technologies.  She successfully 
 
BRATISLAVA 00000143  002 OF 002 
 
 
used her reformist image and support among Slovak celebrities in ads 
appealing to young and urban voters in key cities such as 
Bratislava, Kosice, and Banska Bystrica, but not really resonating 
in the countryside or eastern Slovakia.  She also captured 
overwhelming majorities among the Hungarian-speaking electorate 
(which makes up about 10 percent of the population), receiving over 
80 percent of the vote in at least three southern regions. 
 
¶8. (SBU) While Gasparovic remains the favorite to win on April 4, 
Fico's decision to personally and actively engage in the 
presidential campaign demonstrates that the governing coalition 
takes Radicova's reformist candidacy seriously.  Given that the 
third and fourth place candidates secured almost 11 percent of the 
first-round vote, who they endorse could prove quite telling, and 
there are indications that they and their voters may be inclined 
toward Radicova's anti-incumbent message.  Early commentary and 
analysis suggests that most Slovaks -- even Gasparovic supports -- 
believe Radicova has a real chance of winning, which could increase 
turnout on April 4 and make for a close, interesting election.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
EDDINS