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PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
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DE RUEHSL #0115/01 0651554
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 061554Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2367
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000115 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV LO
SUBJECT: FINALLY, A SHORT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SEASON 
BEGINS 
 
REF: A) 08 BRATISLAVA 602 B) BRATISLAVA 55 
 
¶1. (U) On March 6, the official presidential campaign was 
launched by seven candidates. Out of the seven, only two -- 
incumbent President Ivan Gasparovic and SDKU Deputy 
Chairwoman Iveta Radicova -- are genuine contenders.  The 
first round of voting will be held on March 21.  If no 
candidate earns more than 50 percent of the votes (of 
eligible voters), a second round will be held on April 4. 
Although the current margin between Gasparovic and Radicova, 
is, according to the polls around 20 percent, some analysts 
(and Radicova supporters) think a Radicova victory in the 
second round may be in reach if she can mobilize the youth 
and undecided votes. 
 
Gasparovic:  Support from the Socialists and Nationalists 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶2. (U) Gasparovic and Radicova lead (by far) a field of seven 
candidates.  In one poll conducted in mid-February, 
Gasparovic held a 55 to 33.3 percent margin over Radicova in 
the first round.  The difference diminishes in the second 
round, to 56 to 43.  The other candidates are polling in the 
single digits: former Parliament Speaker and Conservative 
Democrat MP Frantisek Miklosko (4.6 percent); Chairwoman of 
the marginal Free Forum Party, Zuzana Martinakova has 4.6 
percent. Martinakova's husband served until recently served 
as Gasparovic's domestic advisor and it is widely believed 
that her candidacy's sole goal is to reduce Radicova's 
support among women. The HZDS candidate, a heretofore unknown 
university professor named Milan Melnik has 1.7 percent; two 
communist party candidates, Milan Sidor and Dagmar Bollova, 
have not gained even a percentage point. 
 
¶3. (U) The leaders of Smer and the Slovak National Party 
(SNS), Prime Minister Robert Fico and Jan Slota, lent their 
presence to the launch of Gasparovic's campaign.  In 
televised speeches, they appealed to the Slovak citizenry to 
cast its vote for Gasparovic, as the best representative of 
Slovak values and national pride.  Fico pointed out 
(inaccurately) that it was Gasparovic who was invited to the 
U.S. to sign an agreement on the Visa Waiver Program.  Slota 
highlighted Gasparovic's national orientation and said his 
loss would be a "tragedy" for SNS and Slovakia. 
 
¶4. (U) Gasparovic, as the official candidate of coalition 
parties Smer and SNS, has garnered a good deal of media 
coverage and visible Smer support at a number of recent 
public events.  Gasparovic will join PM Fico at events next 
week marking International Women's Day, for instance.  Not 
all of the media focus has been positive, however. On March 
5, the daily Sme reported that the dean of the Technical 
University in Bratislava required all professors to attend 
the speech Gasparovic delivered there.  Gasparovic attracted 
criticism for the content and timing (as close to the 
official start of the campaign as possible) for his annual 
"state of the union" address. 
 
5.(U) Perhaps more damaging, after several verbal slips and 
mistakes, some media outlets speculated that Gasparovic was 
suffering from Alzheimers.   This rumor -- which Gasparovic's 
office tried to quash immediately with the issuance of a 
medical certificate testifying to his good health -- has been 
nurtured by Gasparovic's former colleague and long-time bete 
noir, Vladimir Meciar.  Comment: An interesting, if 
disturbing, related incident occurred when the Presidential 
Palace's decision to ban a reporter from new FM Lajcak's 
swearing-in ceremony because she had aired clips of 
Gasparovic's verbal lapses.) 
 
Radicova: Must Mobilize Youth and Energize her Campaign 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
5.(U) The second place candidate, former Minister of Labor 
and Social Affairs Iveta Radicova, launched her campaign in a 
decidedly low-key fashion: with a series of book signings at 
Bratislava shopping malls.  At the events, she identified her 
main principles as support for the rule of law and defense of 
citizens' rights.  On the eve of the official campaign 
launch, SDKU Chairman Mikulas Dzurinda sent emails to 
thousands of SDKU supporters urging them to get out the vote. 
 Radicova is also supported by the Hungarian Coalition Party 
(SMK) and by factions of the Christian Democrats (KDH). 
Although emboffs have not been successful in securing a 
meeting with candidate Radicova recently, we communicate with 
her via Facebook. 
 
BRATISLAVA 00000115  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) Radicova's perceived social liberalism -- she supports 
maintaining legalized abortions, for instance -- has been the 
main cause of KDH's lukewarm attitude.  Recently, several 
bishops helped to ignite the Slovak "culture wars," by 
publicly calling on Catholic voters not to support her. 
Banska Bystrica's Bishop, Rodulf Balaz, recently went as far 
as to indirectly compare Radicova to Hitler because of her 
attitudes toward abortion and gays. (Comment: After Balasz's 
remarks, he and Radicova met one-on-one at her request, after 
which Radicova told the press that there was no bitterness or 
disagreement between them.) According to sources within SDKU, 
Radicova can win in a second round, but many in the party are 
critical of what they describe as a somewhat disorganized and 
lackluster campaign.  Many were surprised, for instance, when 
Radicova named as her spokesman, Jan Fule, who served the 
same function for former President Schuster. 
 
 
It Will Be Over Soon... 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Although the office of the Presidency in Slovakia is 
largely ceremonial, a Radicova victory would serve as a 
symbolic and rhetorical counterpoint to the policies of the 
ruling coalition.  Gasparovic, while a stronger booster for 
transatlantic ties than the Prime Qnister, has basically 
Qrved as a rubber stamp for the Fico Government.  Unlike 
some of his predecessors, most notably Michal Kovac under 
then-PM Meciar, Gasparovic is content to go along quietly 
with his PM's agenda.  On those rare occasions when he 
differs, it's either theater (as in the case of his veto of 
the compromise textbook law -- ref a) or of negligible 
import, e.g., holding up Ambassadorial appointments. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Given the sorry state of Slovak politics -- a few 
bright spots notwithstanding -- most voters we talk to are 
only too glad that the Presidential campaign will be 
mercifully short.  Although today is the launch of the 
official campaign, it's already been a source of levity (or 
despair) for some pundits.  The recent suggestion by 
Miklosko's top ally, former Interior Minister Palko, that 
parents be given the same number of votes as they have 
children falls in the former category; Bishop Balasz's attack 
on Radicova in the latter.  Somewhere in between was KDH MP 
Daniel Lipsic's now-infamous gafQ, in which he linked his 
support for Radicova with public expressions of regret for 
the second Dzurinda government's alleged involvement in a 
vote-buying scheme (ref b).  Following Lipsic's mea culpa, PM 
Fico and Parliament Speaker Pasko spent the next week 
lambasting Radicova for "benefiting" from past malfeasance. 
 
¶9. (U) In any case, the billboards make for amusing and 
occasionally revealing viewing.  Radicova looks kind behind 
professorial glasses; her slogans evoke courage and hope. 
Martinakova, meanwhile, looks has if she has had one too many 
procedures around the eyes. Her slogan -- a broadside at 
Radicova -- is "a President needs more than courage." The 
unknown Melnik's ad is unintentionally funny: it labels him a 
"personality for the world, with a heart for Slovakia." 
Given PM Fico's still enormously high ratings, it seems that 
Gasparovic has hit billboard paydirt: an image of him, 
together with Fico, under the heading: "together for 
Slovakia." 
EDDINS