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C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 000974 

SIPDIS 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF CO
SUBJECT: URIBE DEPLOYS TRUSTED LIEUTENANTS FOR REELECTION 
DRIVE 

Classified By: Political Counselor John S. Creamer 
Reasons 1.4 (b and d) 

SUMMARY 
------- 

¶1. (C) President Uribe has not said he intends to seek a 
third term in office, but his allies--with his support--are 
pushing hard for a constitutional change that would give him 
the option.  Uribe has deployed trusted lieutenants to 
consolidate his control over coalition political parties and 
block potential rivals.  Former Peace Commissioner Restrepo
will take over the U Party, former Environment Minister 
Lozano worked behind the scenes to undercut reelection 
opponent and Cambio Radical leader German Vargas Lleras, and 
former Agricultural Minister Andres Arias and Uribe acolyte 
leads the polls in the Conservative Party.  Presidential 
Communications director Jorge Eastman said that unlike in 
December, all of the Uribista parties now support reelection. 
He predicted that the constitutional reform process would be 
"neither easy nor pretty," but said the latest polls show 
solid public support for reelection.   End Summary. 

URIBE WANTS REELECTION OPTION AVAILABLE 
--------------------------------------- 

¶2. (C) President Alvaro Uribe has not yet said if he intends 
to run for a third term, but Presidential Communications 
director Jorge Eastman told us he wants the option available 
and has deployed trusted political lieutenants to make the 
required constitutions reform happen.  Long-time Uribe 
advisor Jose ObdulioGaviria told us he left his position at 
the palace in March to lead the third term push.  He is 
committed to reelection, because he believes there is no 
viable alternative to Uribe.  Gaviria said Defense Minister 
Juan Manuel Santos has no political judgement or charisma; 
Cambio Radical leader German Vargas Lleras cannot even 
control his own party; and former Agriculture Minister Andres 
Arias lacks intellectual heft.  He said the Uribista
coalition remains a disparate group of individual political 
leaders with no commitment beyond their opportunistic support 
for Uribe.  Without the president, the coalition would fall 
apart. 

URIBE RETAKES CONTROL OF COALITION PARTIES 
------------------------------------------ 

3 (C)  In addition to Gaviria, several other Uribe confidants 
left government in March with the mission of solidifying 
Uribe's control over the individual coalition parties and 
blocking moves by potential rivals.   Luis Carlos Restrepo
left his job as Peace Commissioner, and is set to be elected 
as president of the U Party in March.  Restrepo told us  he
discussed his strategy with Uribe and intends to use the 
position to build a new, unified Uribista party (with the 
exception of the Conservatives)  and to push for Uribe's 
reelection.  Restrepo said he would consider running for 
Congress, and would also focus on increasing Uribe's 
majorities in the 2010 congressional elections.  The goal 
would be to win 60 of 102 Senate seats and 100 of 166 House 
seats. 

¶4. (C)  Restrepo told us he did not coordinate his plans with 
Defense Minister and former U Party founder Santos.  Though 
Santos voiced public support for Restrepo's leadership bid, U 
Party Senator and current Party President Carlos Ferro told 
us Santos is fuming over the move.  Santos had intended to 
use the U Party for his own candidacy, and Restrepo's success 
in taking control of the party showed how easily Santos could 
be "outmaneuvered."  U Party Senator and presidential 
candidate Martha Lucia Ramirez also resigned from the Senate 
and U Party on March 17.  She said she would continue to 
support Uribe, but could not remain in the party due to its 
unfair rules for choosing its candidate.  Her resignation 
removes another reelection opponent from the party. 

¶5. (C)  Uribe also moved to split the most independent of the 
coalition parties, Cambio Radical.  Environment Minister and 
Cambio member Juan Lozano resigned on March 11, and then 
worked behind the scenes during the March 14-16 Cambio
Radical Party Congress to advance Uribe's reelection bid.  At 

the Congress, Cambio reversed its previous opposition to a 
2010 Uribe run, dealing a major blow to Vargas Lleras who has 
consistently tried to block a third Uribe term.  Cambio
Senator Nancy Gutierrez told us Vargas Lleras was forced to 
back down, since most party members support Uribe.  Eastman 
said Vargas Lleras' defeat shows that most Uribista
legislators--many of whom are only in Congress due to the 
parapolitical scandal--see no future for themselves without 
Uribe, leading them to back a second reelection bid. Unlike 
in December, he added, the Uribista parties now fully support 
the president. 

¶6. (C) Uribe strengthened his position in the other key 
coalition party--the Conservatives--by supporting former 
Agricultural Minister and Uribe acolyte Andres Arias, also 
known as "Uribito," in his presidential campaign.  Arias 
leads in polling on a Conservative Party primary, but has 
made clear he will end his campaign immediately if Uribe opts 
to run again.  In the past, Conservative Party leaders had 
voiced their intention to run their own candidate in the 2010 
presidential elections. Former President Andres Pastrana has 
also discussed the need for the party to assert its 
independence from Uribe--a shift which the success of Arias' 
candidacy makes highly unlikely. 

POLLS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR REELECTION 
---------------------------------------- 

¶7. (U)  A recent Gallup poll showed wide support for Uribe's 
reelection, though several difficult steps remain in the 
process to change the constitution to allow a third term. 
Gallup reported that 71% of those polled would either likely 
or definitely turnout for a reelection referendum, and 80% of 
that group said they would vote for reelection.  Pollster 
Jorge Londono told us those numbers would be enough to pass a 
reelection referendum--as well as to meet the required 
turnout of 25 percent of registered voters (approximately 7.2 
million voters)--if the vote were held today.  He noted that 
despite Colombia's economic downturn, voters appear to 
understand that the slowdown reflect a global crisis, not a 
local problem, and do not blame Uribe.  This could change if 
Colombia's economic problems continue to deepen. 

LEGAL STEPS REMAIN TO ALLOW REELECTION 
-------------------------------------- 

¶8. (C)  Eastman told us that despite Uribe's strong support 
in Congress, obtaining passage of the required constitutional 
reform will be "neither easy nor pretty."  The bill to change 
the constitution to allow reelection will be considered in 
April in the Senate in the third and fourth of four required 
votes to pass the measure.  Senate President Hernan Andrade 
told us the Senate will try to modify the bill's existing 
language to make clear that Uribe can run again in 2010. 
Most observers think the language passed in the House in 2008 
would only allow for a 2014 run.  If passed in the final two 
Senate votes with new language allowing a 2010 bid, the 
measure would then move to a House-Senate conference 
committee to be reconciled. Eastman said the multiple votes 
would offer legislators numerous opportunities to seek 
presidential favors. 

¶9. (C)  Moreover, Eastman noted that House President German 
Varon (Cambio Radical) opposes a third term for Uribe, and is 
a close Vargas Lleras ally.  He will name the House 
representatives to the conference committee, and could use 
his power to kill or delay the reelection bill.  Still, this 
would be difficult given the results of the recent Cambio
Radical Congress.Varon said Uribistas have been quietly 
pushing investigations against him in the hope of finding 
cause to seek his removal as House president.  Supreme 
Judicial Council Magistrate Angelino Lizcano told us Uribe 
allies could also legally delay conference committee action 
until July when a new House president takes office.  Once 
approved in Congress, the measure would move to the 
Constitutional Court for approval and then to the referendum.

OPPOSITION STRATEGY: ABSTAIN 
---------------------------- 

10 (C) Former President and Liberal Party Chief Cesar Gaviria

agreed Uribe wants a third term, but said his original 
"F.D.R. 1940 nomination by popular acclaim" strategy had not 
worked.   Still, he said Uribe could still pull off 
reelection with a hard push.   If Uribe succeeded in amending 
the constitution, he would be the heavy, odds-on favorite to 
win.  As shown by the support of former Liberal Senator 
Rodrigo Rivera and twenty-two current sitting Liberal Party 
legislators for Uribe's Democratic Security Policy, the 
president commands substantial backing even within the 
opposition Liberals.  Liberal Party Senator Juan Cristo and 
Polo Party President Carlos Gaviria told us  the opposition's 
best hope to block a third Uribe term would be an abstention 
campaign which prevented Uribe from meeting the required 25% 
turnout in the referendum. 
NICHOLS 

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