VZCZCXRO5156
RR RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHKUK RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLB #0274 0691355
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101355Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4391
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000274 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO AND NEA/ELA 
ALSO FOR IO/PDAS WARLICK 
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY 
USUN FOR WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER/GERMAIN 
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT:  LEBANON:  ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT:  KOURA 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (U) This is the twelfth in a series of snapshots we are producing 
on key electoral districts ("qada") in the run-up to the June 7, 
2009 parliamentary elections. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Koura, with a population that is 65 percent Greek Orthodox 
and 85 percent Christian, is expected to be the site of tough 
competition for its three Greek Orthodox parliamentary seats.  2009 
Doha redistricting drastically altered the demographics of this 
previously Sunni-dominated district that swept three March 14 
candidates to power in 2005.  Political tension and recent incidents 
of violence between opposing parties in Koura make the area a 
potential hotspot during elections.  The Syrian Socialist 
Nationalist Party (SSNP) is very active here, raising concerns about 
Syrian influence.  The expatriate vote could also play a role.  End 
summary. 
 
KOURA: 
A BRIEF OVERVIEW 
---------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Koura district is dominated by large olive plains and local 
olive cultivation produces some of Lebanon's best olive oils and 
soaps.  The city of Koura has developed into a bustling commercial 
center boasting some of the country's best private schools. 
Lebanon's highest literacy rate is among the residents of Koura, 
many of whom travel to work in nearby Tripoli.  There has been 
significant emigration from Koura to the U.S. and Europe. 
 
¶4. (U) Previously one of five qadas that were grouped together into 
the North Two electoral district, Koura is a separate electoral 
district for the first time in 2009.  Redistricting in Doha had a 
big impact on Koura.  Previously, the Sunni majority in the larger 
North Two electoral district determined who was elected as the 
Christian MPs for the district.  Now voters in Koura, 65 percent of 
whom are Greek Orthodox and 85 percent of whom are Christian, will 
elect three Greek Orthodox MPs. 
 
FACTORS AT PLAY 
IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
-------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Predictions differ over election results in Koura, with 
analysts saying who March 14 chooses as its candidates will be 
important in determining the final result.  Intra-March 14 
disagreement between LF head Samir Geagea and Kataeb head Amine 
Gemayel probably will complicate the coalition's selection of 
candidates.  Contacts say LF member and incumbent MP Farid Habib is 
unpopular in Koura and will likely lose if March 14 picks him as a 
candidate again.  March 14 Koura MP and Deputy Speaker Farid Mekkary 
does not favor Habib.  Mekkary and Nicolas Ghosn, who currently 
holds the third seat, are popular in Koura and are expected to win, 
but opposition and Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party (SSNP) member 
Salim Saadeh could take Habib's seat in the district. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Although exact numbers of emigrants from Koura living 
abroad are unknown, the expatriate vote is likely to have an effect 
on election results here.  We have heard that March 14 and 
opposition politicians are encouraging supporters to travel to 
Lebanon to participate in the 2009 elections, but it is difficult to 
predict who will benefit the most from emigrants' votes. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Fueled by a politically tense atmosphere, clashes erupted 
in Koura in early March between supporters of Samir Geagea's 
Lebanese Forces (LF) and rival Suleiman Franjieh's Marada Forces. 
Fatal clashes also occurred in late 2008 between the Syrian 
Socialist National Party - very strong in Koura - and the Marada 
Forces on one side against March 14 on the other.  Similar incidents 
could take place again.  Additionally, links between Syria and the 
SSNP and Marada open the door for Syrian interference in the 
elections in Koura. 
 
SISON