VZCZCXRO0800
PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHKUK RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLB #0264 0641510
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 051510Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4372
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3541
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3744
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000264 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA 
ALSO FOR IO/PDAS WARLICK 
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY 
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER 
NSC FOR MCDERMOTT, SHAPIRO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: BAABDA 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) This is the eleventh in a series of snapshots we 
will produce for key electoral districts ("qada") in the 
run-up to the June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Baabda, the home of the Presidential Palace, is one 
of the most confessionally diverse districts in Lebanon. 
Christians hold a slight majority, although Shia and Druze 
make up significant minorities.  Analysts consider Baabda one 
of the most critical districts for the March 14 coalition to 
retain its current majority.  In the 2005 elections, March 14 
supporters and opposition Shia parties, Amal and Hizballah, 
allied to deny Christian leader Michel Aoun's list of 
candidates from winning.  In 2009, however, Aoun's party is 
allied with Hizballah and Amal, a fact that favors them.  The 
role of independent candidates and potential electoral 
violence between Shia and Christian voters will also be 
issues to watch  in Baabda.  End summary. 
 
BAABDA: A BRIEF OVERVIEW 
------------------------ 
 
¶3. (U) Historically, Baabda city was the capital of the 
autonomous Ottoman Mount Lebanon and remains the capital of 
the Mount Lebanon administrative province ("mohafaza"). 
Currently, Baabda district, home to the Baabda Presidential 
Palace and several military installations, including the 
Ministry of Defense headquarters in Yarze, is one of the most 
confessionally diverse districts in Lebanon.  Christians hold 
a slight majority (55 percent), while Shia represent 23 
percent and Druze, 17 percent.  In the previous election, 
Baabda was combined with Aley in one electoral district. 
After the May 2008 Doha Agreement, Baabda and Aley became 
separate electoral districts. 
 
¶4. (U) There are six parliamentary seats in the qada: three 
Maronite seats, two Shia seats, and one Druze seat. 
Currently, three MPs are allied with the majority March 14 
coalition. An MP allied with Hizballah holds one Shia seat, 
while a true independent Pierre Daccache holds another.  The 
sixth seat has remained vacant since the 2007 assassination 
of March 14 MP Antoine Ghanem because no by-election was 
held. 
 
FACTORS AT PLAY IN 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
----------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Most analysts agree that competition in Baabda, 
especially for the Maronite seats, will be critical to 
determine which side wins the overall  majority in 
parliament.  In the 2005 elections, an unlikely alliance 
between March 14 partners and the opposition Shia parties, 
Amal and Hizballah, narrowly defeated Michel Aoun's Free 
Patriotic Movement (FPM) candidates, despite FPM winning 
almost two-thirds of the total Christian votes in Baabda. 
However, the alliances have radically changed since then. 
The current opposition alliance of Hizballah, Amal, and FPM 
will make it difficult for March 14 to retain its seats if 
its candidates are not well regarded by the electorate. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Another important factor in Baabda is the 
candidacies of independent candidates.  Several independents 
who are allied with March 14 have declared their intention to 
contest the elections.  These include Edmond Gharios, 
son-in-law of Metn political powerbroker Michel Murr.  It is 
expected that all of the current MPs will also contest their 
seats. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Some analysts predict also that tensions between 
Shia and Christian voters in the district could lead to 
violence. The Chiyah area which separates the Hizballah 
stronghold of the Dahiyeh (Beirut's southern suburbs) from 
Christian neighborhoods in Ain el Roummaneh is of particular 
concern. 
GRANT