VZCZCXRO8110
PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHKUK RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLB #0251/01 0621539
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 031539Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4345
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3532
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3735
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000251 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA 
ALSO FOR IO/PDAS WARLICK 
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY 
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER 
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON:  ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT:  BEIRUT 
 
Summary 
-------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) This is the ninth in a series of snapshots we are 
producing for key electoral districts ("qada") in the run-up 
to the June 7, 2009 parliamentary elections. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Beirut, with three districts and a total of 19 
seats, 18 currently held by March 14 MPs, has the status of a 
"muhafaza" or administrative district as well as a qada.  Due 
to a 2008 redistricting agreement at Doha, the Christian vote 
will have more weight than in past elections, especially in 
the now predominantly Christian District One.  That is 
expected to be a battleground district between Christians 
affiliated with March 14 and those allied with opposition 
Christian leader Michel Aoun. For District Two, March 14 and 
the opposition parties agreed at Doha to split the district's 
four seats.  March 14 should retain control of District 
Three's 10 seats. 
 
BEIRUT:  A BRIEF OVERVIEW 
------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) In a review of electoral districts in 2006, the 
National Commission on Electoral Law (the so-called Boutros 
Commission) proposed that Beirut's three districts should be 
redrawn into more contiguous districts that better aligned 
confessional groups.  Participants accepted the Commission's 
redistricting proposal at the Doha conference in 2008.  Under 
the previous law, Beirut's Christian population was divided 
among the three districts and diluted, allowing the Sunni 
majority to determine the outcome of races for Christian 
seats. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Under the new law, Beirut One, with five seats, on 
the eastern side of the city, is now dominated by Christian 
voters.  The confessional breakdown of the 91,000 registered 
voters is 90% Christian, 9% Muslim.  The distribution of the 
seats is: one Maronite, one Greek Catholic, one Greek 
Orthodox, one Armenian Orthodox, and one Armenian Catholic. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Beirut Two in the city center is poorer and more 
densely populated than District One.  It has four seats and 
approximately 99,000 registered voters, of whom 28% are 
Armenian Orthodox, 29% Sunni,and 25% Shia.  The seats are 
distributed as follows:  two Armenian Orthodox, one Sunni, 
one Shia. 
¶6. (SBU) Beirut Three, encompassing the western areas of the 
city, with 10 seats and 245,000 registered voters, is 
predominantly Sunni (64%), with significant Christian (18%) 
and Shia (14%) minorities.  The 10 seats are distributed as 
follows: five Sunni, one Shia, one Druze, one Greek Orthodox, 
one Evangelical, and one other minority. 
 
FACTORS AT PLAY 
IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) In District One, analysts expect intense electoral 
contests between the Christian factions.  Armenian voters 
will play a major role in determining the winners of the 
district's five seats.  The leading Armenian party, Tashnaq, 
is expected to align with opposition Free Patriotic Movement 
leader Michel Aoun. 
 
¶8. (SBU) In District Two, the seats would normally be 
strongly contested, with the Armenian Tashnaq Party playing a 
decisive role.  However, a deal struck in Doha in May 2008 
between the Future Movement, Hizballah, Amal Movement, and 
Tashnaq left the four seats of the district to be equally 
distributed between the opposition and March 14.  Under the 
agreement, the Sunni seat and one Armenian seat will go to 
the March 14 coalition, and the Shia seat and second Armenian 
seat will go to the opposition March 8 coalition.  This 
arrangement, however, does not exclude potential independent 
candidates from running. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Future Movement of Saad Hariri enjoys strong 
support in District Three, and should be able to control all 
10 seats in 2009. 
 
BEIRUT 00000251  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Not surprisingly, Beirut One is the focus of 
attention by observers and the two blocs, since it is 
considered too close to call and a key test of the relative 
strengths of the two sides competing for the Christian vote. 
Among those expected to run for March 14 are Nayla Tueni, 
daughter of assassinated MP Gibran Teuni, and Nadim Gemayel, 
son of assassinated president Bashir Gemayel and nephew of 
current Kataeb party leader Amine Gemayel. 
GRANT