VZCZCXRO1373
PP RUEHAST RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHTM
RUEHTRO RUEHVC
DE RUEHBJ #0687/01 0760903
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 170903Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2918
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RHMCSUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 7188
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 9247
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2463
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 4785
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 2135
RUEHLN/AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 0024
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 0040
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI 0238
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 0127
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM 0705
RUEHGP/AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE 9603
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH 0658
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0209
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0452
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI 0257
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 1950

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 000687 
 
STATE FOR CA/VO/L/C, EAP/CM, EEB/CBA, EEB/ESC, ISN/CB, L, OES 
STATE PASS NASA/OFFICE OF EXTERNAL RELATIONS FOR A/S O'BRIEN 
TOKYO FOR NASA ATTACHE TILMAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: CMGT CVIS ETTC OEXC ECON ENRG EINV TRGY KNNP KSCA
CH 
 
SUBJECT: Mantis 2009 (2 of 2): Unpredictable Delays Harm Business, 
Public Diplomacy in Beijing 
 
REF: A) Knechtges 02/27/2009 email (NOTAL);  B) Beijing 435, Beijing 
130, 08 Beijing 3055, 08 Shanghai 133; C) Beijing 532; D) 08 State 
60209, State 021417; E) 08 Beijing 3116, 08 State 91593 
 
BEIJING 00000687  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  This cable draws preliminary conclusions on 2009 
Mantis Security Advisory Opinion (SAO) processing trends, based on 
the first 5 months of the fiscal year.  Current lengthy SAO 
processing delays undermine Consular Section public outreach 
efforts.  Expediting 2009 student and scholar Mantis SAO cases will 
be paramount to ensuring timely arrivals in the United States. 
China Mission appreciates recent increases in Mantis SAO visa 
validity and provides the following data to support the Department's 
efforts to resolve SAO processing problems.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------------- 
Unpredictable Processing Times Undermine Our Credibility 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  Per email guidance from CA/VO (Ref A), Beijing's Non-Immigrant 
Visa Unit (NIV) is no longer submitting B1/B2 SAO requests for 
applicants with technical backgrounds planning travel to the United 
States before June 29, 2009 (see paragraph 8). 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Mantis clearance wait times have quadrupled from February 
2008 to March 2009, and doubled from 8 weeks in November 2008 to 16 
weeks in March 2009.  Due to unpredictable increases in wait times, 
Beijing NIV is unable to predict whether any Chinese B1/B2, H1B or L 
traveler will be cleared in time to meet travel deadlines, 
regardless of when applicants plan to travel to the United States. 
Post has reported extensively on the economic costs of these delays 
(Ref B). 
 
¶4. For example, some travelers applied in November without enough 
advance time and were told to re-apply at least 10 weeks in advance 
of their next trip.  They did so in February, and learned 10 weeks 
was now insufficient; they would still miss their May trip. 
Although we are now turning away applicants with inflexible travel 
dates before June 29 with no plans for future U.S. travel, 
experience suggests the wait time will continue to grow and some of 
applicants subject to Mantis processing will miss their July 
meetings and conferences. 
 
¶5. Consular Section public credibility is undermined when applicants 
follow our instructions only to get burned twice.  Similarly, our 
MFA and business contacts question whether we were really listening 
when they raised this issue with us in August, November, and again 
in January.  We assured them Washington was extremely concerned and 
working on the problem, but our contacts have observed no 
improvement, only deteriorating conditions. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Uncertainty Costs Opportunities for Students 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  U.S. Embassy Beijing conducted extensive student outreach across 
 
BEIJING 00000687  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
China in 2008 (Ref C), encouraging students that the U.S. is open 
for education.  This message is undermined by lengthy Mantis SAO 
wait times. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Beijing appreciates the fast tracking of J1 and F1 
applicants and understands the Department hopes to process these 
cases within 30 days.  In August 2008 and January 2009, we estimate 
several hundred Chinese graduate students, professors, and scholars 
waited more than 30 days and missed their fall/spring semester start 
dates despite fast-tracked processing (Ref D). 
 
¶8.  We continue to advise all students to apply as early as 
possible, and offer all students expedited appointments.  In 
reality, most schools issue I-20s only 2-3 months before the start 
of classes, preventing students from applying early enough to 
accommodate the unpredictable wait for SAO clearance.  Those who are 
allowed to enroll late may find limited course options or lose out 
on employment opportunities such as graduate assistantships.  This 
catch-22 discourages technology students from graduate study in the 
United States, as it becomes nearly impossible for them to plan 
their studies.  According to media reports and family members, many 
students already in the United States do not return to China for 
family visits, as they rationally fear visa delays will impact their 
research. 
 
¶9.  We predict student and scholar Mantis SAO volume in 2009 will 
increase, as in years past.  From FY 2007 to FY 2008, F1 student 
applications increased at a rate of 28 percent.  January and 
February 2009 numbers indicate F1 and J1 are the only visa classes 
that seem immune to the economic recession in our consular district 
(full 2008 and 2009 visa statistics and 2008 Mantis trends coming 
separate cable). 
 
------------------------------- 
Business Trips Canceled 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Since October 1, 2008, Beijing has turned away more than 
700 business travelers with inflexible dates of travel at the time 
of their interview due to SAO delays.  This includes 214 applicants 
turned away from mid-February to Mid-March; the longer the wait 
time, the more people Post must turn away.  Per septel, Post 
requests guidance on how new Mantis policies will affect this trend. 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) In February 2009, Beijing NIV turned away 25 percent of 
all B1/B2 business travelers with a technology background and no SAO 
requests for these applicants were transmitted for clearance.  Many 
were shocked to hear they must apply at least 4 months in advance of 
travel. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) The Department recently errored out 147 pending SAOs for 
travelers who already missed technology-related conferences or other 
fixed-date travel due to SAO delays.  Many of these applicants 
applied in October, November and December for January and February 
2009 conferences.  We estimate another 1000 business-related (H1B, 
B1/B2, L) applicants with pending clearance requests have canceled 
 
BEIJING 00000687  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
or postponed travel to the United States, while countless others 
self-selected out of the process and held meetings in China or third 
countries to avoid U.S. visa delays.  Countless additional travelers 
eventually cleared for visa issuance do not reschedule U.S. travel. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) In the past several weeks, business visa clearances have 
come to a near standstill, and numbers of pending SAOs are 
increasing.  Post understands that CA/VO is working with clearing 
partners to address this increasing backlog, and appreciates recent 
CA/VO communications on efforts to address delays. 
 
Piccuta