R 251021Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9177
NVC PORTSMOUTH 2331
INFO AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 
IRAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS ANKARA 000449 
 
 
DEPT FOR CA/FPP; DEPT ALSO PASS TO KCC; POSTS FOR FRAUD PREVENTION 
MANAGERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS CPAS CMGT ASEC KFRD TU
SUBJECT: Ankara: VALIDATION STUDY OF IRANIAN APPLICANTS 
 
¶1.  Summary: Embassy Ankara recently conducted a validation study of 
Iranian applicants who had been issued B-1/B-2 visas in Ankara 
during calendar year 2008.  The purpose of the study was to 
determine the overstay rate of Iranian nonimmigrant visa recipients 
and to better inform Post's adjudication practices.  Post reviewed 
50 percent of all applicants from the study period.  Bio data of the 
256 individuals who made up the study population were checked 
against entry and exit records from the Arrival Departure 
Information System (ADIS) database maintained by the Department of 
Homeland Security (DHS) US-VISIT Program.  The overstay rate among 
this population, based on those records, is 11.3 percent. Post will 
incorporate lessons learned from its analysis of subjects who 
overstayed for future adjudications.  End Summary. 
 
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BACKGROUND: 
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¶2.  Ankara is a designated Iranian-processing post and handles the 
majority of the Iranian cases in Turkey, which includes Iranian 
nonimmigrant (NIV) and all Iranian immigrant visa (IV) applications. 
 Normally, Iranian interviews are limited to no more than twenty per 
day, four days a week.  During 2008, Post processed 1,036 Iranian 
applicants which included 513 B1/B2 visas. Due to continuing demand 
from Iranian NIV applicants, Istanbul processes a small number of 
Iranian NIV applicants with the aid of Farsi interpretation from 
Post's Political and Economic Section. ConGen Istanbul conducted a 
similar validation study of all their Iranian B class applicants in 
¶2007. Methodology of Embassy Ankara's study closely mirrors that of 
the 2007 validation study. 
 
¶3.  When adjudicating Iranian visa applications, consular officers 
in Ankara rely primarily on the interview, and secondarily look to 
documents to check for conformities and inconsistencies. 
Adjudication decisions are based largely on age, family ties to Iran 
or the U.S., travel history, and financial status determined during 
interviews.  Among the population sample of issued Iranian B visa 
applicants, the median age of approved Iranian applicants during the 
survey period was above 55 years.  Eighty percent were married and 
73% had immediate family in the United States.  Over 50.9% were 
employed as professionals, business owners, farmers, workers, 
academics, or government employees. Retirees made up about 21% while 
housewives accounted for about 24% of the applicant sample. Student 
B class visa applicants made up about 3%. Ankara's caseload of 
Iranian F-1 students, which made up about 18% of the total 
issuances, was not included in this study. According to 
applications, 45% of our target group had prior travel to the U.S. 
and another 45.9% had traveled to Europe. 
 
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METHODOLOGY: 
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¶4.  Following Consular Affairs Fraud Prevention Office (CA/FCC) 
guidance, post limited its study group to only visitor visa 
(B-1/B-2) applicants.  During the period between January 1, 2008 and 
December 31, 2008 post printed 513 B class visas. Post selected an 
entire year for its study period to eliminate possible seasonal 
variations and conducted the study with a 50% sample of applicants 
resulting in an initial sample of 256 applicants. As 33 applicants 
were found to be in current status in the U.S. and an additional 3 
applicants could not be verified due to lack of records in ADIS the 
resulting study was ultimately based on 220 applicants. 
 
¶5.  In order to validate the entry and exit of applicants, post 
utilized access to DHS ADIS database which stores traveler arrival 
and departure information. Post was successful in getting entry and 
exit data for over 98% of the study group with only 3 applicants not 
found in the database. 
 
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RESULTS: 
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¶6.  Of the 256 subjects in the initial sample, 25 (9.7%) overstayed 
their visas while 195 (76.1%) traveled to the U.S. and returned 
within six months. Three subjects either did not travel, or traveled 
to the U.S. and were not entered into the US-VISIT databases. 
Another 33 (12.8%) were still in status in the U.S. Adjusting for 
the 36 applicants that could not be verified at this time the total 
overstay rate for Ankara for 2008 based on an adjusted sample of 220 
applicants was 11.3%. 
 
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ANALYSIS: 
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¶7.  In an effort to improve adjudication practices, Post analyzed 
DS-156 visa applications forms, information from the Consular 
Consolidated Database (CCD), and adjudicator case notes of all 
 
validation study subjects to better understand the 25 subjects who 
overstayed their visas.  The analysis revealed the following 
findings. 
 
Previous Travel: Of the subjects who traveled and returned after an 
appropriate stay, over 43% had previously traveled to the United 
States.  On the other hand only 4% of the subjects who overstayed 
had traveled previously to the United States. Similarly, 43% with 
previous travel to Western Europe and Canada had returned in 2008, 
however, applicants who overstayed that had previous Western Europe 
or Canadian travels were slightly higher at 7%. 
 
Prior refusals: About an equal percentage of those who were 
previously refused overstayed and returned. About 20% of the 
subjects who returned had prior refusals, while 19% of the subjects 
who overstayed had previously been refused a U.S. visa. 
 
Age and Immediate Family:  Out of the age group between 18 to 30 
years old 27% were confirmed overstays. Between the ages of 31 to 59 
the overstay rate dropped to 12%, and applicants over 60 had the 
lowest overstay rate by age at 9%. Family ties to the U.S. do not 
seem to strongly indicate likeliness to overstay. Of the applicants 
that returned, 89% had immediate family in the U.S. 
 
Marital Status:  Marital status appears to be a good determinate 
based on the sample group. Over 73% of married applicants returned 
while only 50% of those who were single returned. Divorced and 
widowed applicant return rates were 22% and 21% respectively. 
 
Occupation: Overstay rates for the unemployed and employed were 
roughly equal at 11% and 10% respectively. Iranian business owners, 
medical professionals, farmers, dentists, and businesspersons had a 
perfect return record. Out of 14 academics there was 1 overstay 
making their return rate 93%. Engineers had an overstay rate of 25% 
while students overstayed at a rate of about 14%. Housewives had an 
overstay rate of 17% while only 7% of retirees overstayed. Although 
the sample was small with 3 applicants, carpet sellers had an 
overstay rate of 67%. All of the carpet sellers were relatively 
young. The only noticeable difference about the one carpet seller 
that returned was that he was married. Fraud was confirmed as both 
study overstays submitted similar documents that resembled those of 
refusals in recent months. 
 
Purpose of Travel:  The purpose of travel of the 25 applicants that 
overstayed, with the exception of the carpet salesmen, do not seem 
to indicate anything helpful in detecting likeliness to overstay. 
Purposes resembled typical reasons for travel such as going to a 
wedding, visiting relatives and friends, or witnessing the birth of 
a child. All of these were also typical reasons for those applicants 
that returned. 
 
¶8.  Comment: We will use the lessons learned from the analysis of 
this validation study to improve adjudication practices and train 
incoming consular officers.  Particular attention will be given to 
younger age ranges, singles, and applicants without solid 
professional or academic ties. Given that this is the first 
validation study conducted on Iranian B-1/B-2 applicants for Embassy 
Ankara, Post looks forward to conducting a follow-up studies to see 
the effects of changes in adjudication practices.  In addition to 
Istanbul's 2007 validation study, we hope the results of this study 
can enhance the adjudication of Iranian NIV applicants at all Iran 
NIV processing posts.  End Comment. 
 
 
JEFFREY