VZCZCXRO6709
PP RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAS #0247/01 0701709
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 111709Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY ALGIERS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7183
INFO RUEHBP/AMEMBASSY BAMAKO 0908
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 9209
RUEHNM/AMEMBASSY NIAMEY 1885
RUEHNK/AMEMBASSY NOUAKCHOTT 6700
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 3081
RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS 7570
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT 2707

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ALGIERS 000247 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SOCI ECON AG
SUBJECT: PROMISES, PROMISES: BOUTEFLIKA BETWEEN CAMPAIGN 
AND LEGACY 
 
REF: A. 08 ALGIERS 1267 
     ¶B. ALGIERS 226 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A week before the official start of the 
2009 presidential campaign, President Bouteflika and his 
government have already chalked up a sizable list of promises 
and largesse -- a list that exceeds traditional levels of 
election-year munificence.  In addition to a USD 150-million 
development plan, Bouteflika has promised to raise the 
minimum wage and student allowances while creating two 
million new jobs.  He wiped out the debt of farmers and 
ranchers and stayed evictions and asset seizures from civil 
court rulings.  He promised to expand the role of women in 
government while increasing payments to the poor for health 
care and starting to refurbish entire blue-collar 
neighborhoods.  The cost of these promises is difficult to 
estimate, as is the likelihood that all will come to 
fruition.  The president appears to be using his incumbency 
in an attempt to strike chords with a cross-section of the 
Algerian population.  His campaign director claims nothing 
Bouteflika has done thus far violates the official March 19 
start of campaign season since he is merely conducting normal 
presidential business, leaving a question whether this is 
simply electioneering or part of an ongoing attempt to build 
Bouteflika's legacy (ref A) following an all-but-certain 
electoral victory.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) President Bouteflika announced his candidacy on 
February 12 with much fanfare and a promise to spend some USD 
150 million on new development projects across the country 
and create two million new jobs.  He then embarked on a 
series of city visits to inaugurate public works projects and 
open conferences, making further promises for government 
spending along the way, even though the official campaign 
season does not begin until March 19.  The government 
meanwhile announced other spending programs aimed primarily 
at working-class or poor Algerians. 
 
OLD SCHOOL ELECTIONEERING 
------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) On February 16 the government announced increased 
health care and medication benefits for Algerians below 
certain income levels and for those suffering from certain 
chronic diseases.  On February 24 in the hydrocarbons export 
hub of Arzew, the president celebrated the anniversary of the 
nationalization of the country's oil and gas resources and 
the formation of the leading labor union by promising an 
increase in the minimum wage by the end of the year -- "if I 
am elected."  The minimum wage has remained static since 
2007, mired in tripartite negotiations among the government 
and representatives of the labor unions and employers 
associations. 
 
¶4. (U) Bouteflika announced at the opening of a national 
agriculture conference in Biskra on February 27 that the 
treasury would cover the debts of troubled farmers and 
ranchers, estimated at USD 450 million.  This measure has 
proved somewhat controversial, as many believe that a 
significant portion of the farm debt at issue was created 
under fraudulent or misleading circumstances.  Presidential 
candidate Mohammed Said questioned the debt cancellation 
policy, suggesting the plan "will make our fathers on the 
farm lazy."  Even the prime minister admitted challenges to 
the program, saying during a radio interview March 11 that it 
presented "a double-edged knife" by relieving pressure on a 
sector in which the government would like to see growth while 
potentially rewarding scofflaws and encouraging dependency. 
 
¶5.  (U) Still more than a week away from the official start 
of the presidential campaign season, the president visited 
the city of Sidi-bel-Abbes on March 4 to appeal to students, 
announcing a 50-percent increase in the allowance paid to 
students and vowed to raise the Ph.D. candidate allowance to 
match minimum wage.  Vocational trainees would also get a 
bump in allowance, he said, as well as more money to buy the 
equipment needed for their training programs.  Not to 
overlook another key constituency, the president said on 
March 8 during a ceremony marking International Women's Day 
that he would strive to fill more key appointed government 
positions with women, including walis (governors), university 
deans, court chief justices, ambassadors and ministers.  He 
also said that he had directed his existing ministers to 
 
ALGIERS 00000247  002 OF 002 
 
 
reserve slates of managerial positions in government and 
public companies for women. 
 
OBVIOUS, BUT ULTIMATELY SUCCESSFUL? 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Two Algerian business executives told us that they 
expect little result from the president's pre-campaign 
promises, particularly since the largesse is aimed at the 
masses.  A major importer of dried fruits and powdered milk 
told us that the president is clearly trying to associate 
himself with the "average" Algerian by reaching out to 
demographics with little prior access to the government but 
whom the government needs to show up at the polls in April: 
women, students, workers and farmers.  The CEO of an aluminum 
and glass company told us he was skeptical that Bouteflika 
could meet the financial obligations of all of his promises, 
since his previous development strategy did not result in 
economic diversification or increased government 
productivity.  The CEO said that Bouteflika's recent promises 
to the masses are geared toward one thing: to guarantee a 
third term "and a presidential funeral like (1970s-era 
Algerian President) Boumediene had."  The importer agreed, 
saying that Bouteflika's third term is almost guaranteed 
because there is no political figure prominent enough to 
challenge him. 
 
¶7. (SBU) In addition to campaign promises, blue-collar 
neighborhoods like Bab-el-Oued below the Casbah in Algiers 
are getting a makeover in the weeks before the national 
election.  Streets and sidewalks are being quickly repaved, 
decrepit buildings torn down, and the French colonial-era 
architecture repainted to the traditional white with gray 
trim. (Note: In the early years of the decade, much of 
central and old Algiers was repainted white with blue trim, 
the colors of the Khalifa Group that won the refurbishment 
contract but later collapsed in a massive banking and 
industrial fraud case that still haunts the government.  End 
Note.) 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) If as the businessmen and many others believe, 
Bouteflika is assured a third term, all of his pre-election 
promises may not be geared as much toward securing a victory 
as toward ensuring a reasonable level of voter turnout, which 
remains a major concern for the government (ref B).  Moves 
such as freezing asset seizures and evictions until after the 
elections are clearly aimed at the turnout problem.  The 
businessmen may also be correct in surmising that many of the 
promises, if acted upon, are equally designed to give 
Bouteflika what he and his supporters feels is his rightful 
place in history as the man who not only brought Algeria out 
of the dark years of terrorism but ushered in a new era of 
economic and social development.  But Bouteflika's campaign 
director admitted publicly on March 10 that Bouteflika's 
third term will not be marked so much by new initiatives as 
by the completion of the many public works, development and 
reform projects launched in his second term.  Like the 
(admittedly welcome) facelift of Bab-el-Oued, it is not yet 
clear if Bouteflika truly intends to construct a new legacy 
for himself after the elections or simply to put a fresh coat 
of political paint over the existing and decaying 
infrastructure. 
DAUGHTON