VZCZCXYZ0007
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0365/01 0890953
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 300953Z MAR 09
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1247
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9070
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0510

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000365 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS, NORTH KOREA 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused March 
28-30 news coverage on the legislative by-election in a district of 
Taipei City Saturday, in which the KMT narrowly defeated the DPP; on 
Taiwan's economic prospects; and on developments in cross-Strait 
relations.  The pro-unification "United Daily News" ran a banner 
headline on page four March 30, reading "Separated by Sixty Years, 
Militaries on Both Sides [of the Taiwan Strait] Are Expected to Have 
First Contact [in Hawaii in August]." 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the 
pro-independence "Liberty Times" discussed the Pentagon's annual 
report on China's military power and lashed out at what it believes 
to be the Ma Ying-jeou Administration's pro-China policy.  A 
"Liberty Times" op-ed piece said that what is implied in the 
Pentagon report differs significantly from the recent remarks by AIT 
Chairman Raymond Burghardt, and the difference indicates that 
Washington has paid little attention to Taiwan.  The article warned 
that China will soon gain full control of the Taiwan Strait if 
Washington continues to pay no heed to the area.  A separate 
"Liberty Times" column criticized the Ma Administration for ignoring 
the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), continuing to push its allegedly 
pro-China policy and distancing itself from the United States.  A 
"United Daily News" analysis, on the other hand, discussed the 
possibly of contact between military officials on both sides of the 
Taiwan Strait in Hawaii in August.  The article said the trend shows 
that the Obama Administration will not sacrifice Taiwan just to 
curry favor with China, and that as long as Taiwan is not a 
troublemaker, Washington will maintain a friendly relationship with 
Taiwan.  An op-ed piece in the pro-independence, English-language 
"Taipei Times," written by Hawaii-based freelance writer Richard 
Halloran, also discussed the Pentagon report and said the United 
States has "shown a distinct shift in tone" by making more firm and 
candid comments than previous appraisals on China's military 
development.  An editorial in the pro-independence, English-language 
"Taiwan News" discussed the 30-year-old Taiwan Relations Act and 
urged U.S. President Barack Obama to "reaffirm TRA to manifest 
Washington's resolve to maintain stable U.S.-Taiwan relations." 
With regard to North Korea, a column in the mass-circulation "Apple 
Daily" called Pyongyang's plan to launch a satellite a move to stage 
a virtual crisis in order to grab the United States' attention. End 
summary. 
 
¶3. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
A) "[Pentagon's] Report on China's Military Power Bursts the Wishful 
Thinking of the Ma Administration" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 700,000] 
editorialized (3/28): 
 
"The United States published its annual report on China's military 
power Wednesday, which pointed out that China is rapidly increasing 
its military power and developing new military technologies in an 
attempt to break the military balance in East Asia or [create] a 
bigger range. ...  We believe that this report has not only burst 
the Ma Administration's wishful thinking toward the Chinese 
government, but it has also highlighted China's double-handed 
strategy of playing with peace and war to annex our country.  Our 
fellow countrymen must not just sit back and watch such a danger 
signal, which will bring serious threats to our national security 
and survival. ...  As a result, not only is the United States 
seriously concerned about China's exuberant evil ambitions, but 
China's neighboring countries, such as Japan and India, have also 
elevated their vigilance and sought proactively to cope with [such a 
development].  By contrast, Taiwan's ruling Chinese Nationalist 
Party still harbors a fantasy about China. ...  What must be 
emphasized here is that the use of force is merely one of the means 
that China will use to obtain Taiwan; to annex [the island] without 
a war is [Beijing's true] smug calculation." 
 
B) "Watch out For China Gaining Control over the Taiwan Strait" 
 
Lai I-chung, Executive Committee member of the Taiwan Thinktank, 
opined in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 
700,000] (3/28): 
 
"The United States' annual 'report on China's military power' has 
been published.  This report carries the following characteristics: 
First, despite the significantly warming cross-Strait relations in 
2008, China remains firm in strengthening its military power against 
Taiwan at a stable pace, increasing its deployment of over 100 
missiles a year.  Second, this report particularly spelt out the 
seven red lines, by which [China] will use force against Taiwan, 
unveiling that Taiwan independence is not the only reason for the 
use of force.  Third, this report has again sounded the alert that 
China's military power is prepared to 'go beyond the Taiwan Strait.' 
 What is implied in the report shows significant differences to what 
[AIT Chairman] Raymond Burghardt said recently, indicating to a 
worrisome extent how much the United States neglects Taiwan. ... 
 
"Media reports quoted Burghardt as saying that the United States 
does not care about the first island chain, but what is implied in 
the report is just the opposite.  China is the one among Washington, 
Beijing and Taipei that has the most precise strategy, while the 
practices of both Taiwan and the United States are both full of 
ambiguities and uncertainty.  If Washington continues its practice 
of paying no heed to the Taiwan Strait, China will quickly gain full 
control over the Taiwan Strait!" 
 
C) "President Ma Ruins the 'Taiwan Relations Act'" 
 
Freelance Journalist James Wang wrote in the "Weekly Commentary" 
column in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 
700,000] (3/29): 
 
"... Ma Ying-jeou has paid no attention to the 'Taiwan Relations 
Act;' he sees being pro-China as his first priority while at the 
same time distancing himself from the United States.  He accepts the 
one-China principle and allows China to dictate and arrange 
everything when it comes to [Taiwan's] foreign relations and 
defense, issues that symbolize Taiwan's sovereignty.  When he was 
the [head of the] ruling party, he sought to block [U.S.] arms sales 
[to Taiwan], and now when China firmly challenges the 'Taiwan 
Relations Act' and has deployed over 1,000 missiles and used the 
'Anti-Secession Law' to threaten Taiwan, he has accepted China's 
terms to engage in [cross-Strait] exchanges and negotiations.  What 
he did is akin to abandoning U.S. protection and instead, seeking 
China to be [Taiwan's] colonist. 
 
"The possible options that Taiwan is facing are very clear, and even 
very stupid people will understand easily:  Looking upon the United 
States as its protector, Taiwan can at least retain de facto 
independence and its state of freedom and democracy.  Seeing China 
as its colonist, however, Taiwan will only be annexed by China under 
the authoritarian Chinese Communist system as an autonomous region. 
 
 
"The 'Taiwan Relations Act' empowers the Taiwan people to reject 
being annexed by China by force, but it cannot stop the Taiwan 
people from being annexed of their own free will.  [AIT Chairman] 
Raymond Burghardt's [recent] remark on 'the Taiwan people's will' 
was a true statement of [U.S.] policy, and it could be regarded as a 
reminder to the Taiwan people.  The Taiwan people who do not want 
Taiwan to become China's colony should unite together and oppose the 
Ma Administration's 'joining hands with China to restrain Taiwan,' 
which violates the practices of the 'Taiwan Relations Act,' and 
should insist on the interests of the Taiwan people." 
 
D) "Interactions among the Three Sides Grope Toward a New Model" 
 
Journalist Stella Wang noted in an analysis in the pro-unification 
"United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (3/30): 
 
"Over the course of sixty years and with the United States as a 
go-between, militaries on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have 
finally had a chance to get together.  This shows that Beijing's 
current policy toward Taiwan has grown gradually stable -- namely, 
'there will be more carrots than sticks', more and clear soft 
[persuasion] while less hard [threat].  The Obama Administration 
will not sacrifice Taiwan just to curry favor with China.  As long 
as Taiwan is not a troublemaker, the United States will maintain a 
friendly relationship with Taiwan. ... 
 
"As for the United States, even though the ruling Democratic Party 
is traditionally pro-China, judging from AIT Chairman Raymond 
Burghardt's public call for mainland China to remove its ballistic 
missiles targeting Taiwan and the fact that a U.S. 
military-affiliated think tank has, as in the past, invited Taiwan 
to participate in the Senior Executive Course, the Obama 
Administration attaches great importance to Taiwan's strategic 
position in Asia.  In addition, the Ma Administration since it took 
office has been keen on improving cross-Strait ties, so that the 
triangular relationship among Washington, Beijing and Taipei are no 
longer zero-sum relations as in the Chen Shui-bian Administration. 
Such developments give the United States no reason to treat Taiwan 
unjustly. ... 
 
"Given that the United States and Taiwan both elected a new 
administration over the past year, the triangular relationship among 
Washington, Beijing and Taipei would naturally re-position itself. 
Judging from the fact that militaries on both sides of the Taiwan 
Strait will get together, the three sides have tested and found a 
new win-win-win model.  As long as the basic situation remains 
unchanged, the triangular relationship among Washington, Beijing and 
Taipei will move toward a positive direction, which will be great 
news for regional security in East Asia." 
 
E) "US Report Shows Shift in Policy toward PRC" 
 
Richard Halloran, Hawaii-based freelance writer, opined in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] (3/29): 
 
"A new assessment of China's military power issued by the Pentagon 
on Wednesday is notable for a subtle but distinct shift in tone, 
being more firm and candid than previous appraisals.  The review 
stopped short of accusing the Chinese of being devious or lying but 
was headed in that direction. ...  The annual report has grown to 78 
pages from 56 pages in 2002 and reflects the Pentagon's increased 
attention to China, the improved ability of US analysts to discern 
trends in China and a greater anxiety that Beijing potentially poses 
a serious threat.  An unnamed official who briefed the press on the 
report in Washington acknowledged the greater apprehension.  China's 
military modernization, he said, 'is of growing concern to us.' ..." 
 
 
F) "Taiwan Relations Act Needs Affirmation" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 
20,000] editorialized (3/30): 
 
"April 10 will mark the 30th anniversary of the passage of the 
'Taiwan Relations Act' by the United States Congress in the wake of 
the breaking of relations between the U.S. and Taiwan's Republic of 
China government in January 1979. ...  Indeed, the latest annual 
report by the Pentagon report on the People's Liberation Army 
military power warned that the PRC's continued military buildup may 
aim to frighten the new KMT government into making even more 
concessions. ...  The Pentagon report was a wake-up call to both the 
U.S. and Taiwan governments. 
 
"Since taking office in January, new U.S. President Barack Obama has 
rarely mentioned cross-strait relations, while Secretary of State 
Hillary Clinton merely reaffirmed Washington's 'one China policy' to 
her PRC counterparts in a February visit to Beijing.  Since Obama is 
slated to meet PRC State Chairman and CCP General Secretary Hu 
Jintao in early April at the 'Group of 20' summit in London, it 
would be very timely for Obama to openly reaffirm TRA to manifest 
Washington's resolve to maintain stable U.S.-Taiwan relations. ... 
The Pentagon report was also a timely reminder to the Ma government 
to reconsider its current policy of 'leaning to one side' toward 
Beijing, which has featured substantial economic and political 
concessions by Taipei to Beijing but scant benefits to Taiwan 
economically or diplomatically. ... 
 
"Without domestic multipartisan support, Ma will be unable to 
fulfill his dream of cross-strait normalization and any failure of 
the KMT government to secure sufficient security guarantees from the 
U.S. will likewise undermine its bargaining power in the face of the 
PRC's expansion of military, economic and diplomatic clout. 
Diplomatic lobbying by the KMT administration would be more 
convincing if Ma would invite opposition voices in Taiwan to join in 
a bipartisan campaign for public congressional and presidential 
endorsement of the TRA and its affirmation of the importance of 
Taiwan's democracy and human rights and security instead of only 
trying to secure endorsements for his 'normalization' policy." 
 
¶4. North Korea 
 
"Virtual Crisis" 
 
Columnist Antonio Chiang wrote in his column in the mass-circulation 
"Apple Daily" [circulation: 520,000] (3/30): 
 
"In 1998, Pyongyang announced it would launch a satellite, but in 
fact it was test-firing a ballistic missile.  This time it has 
claimed it will launch a satellite again, but the United States and 
Japan suspect that it is going to launch a long-range ballistic 
missile.  The two countries, as a result, stand in combat readiness 
and are prepared to intercept [the missile]; a virtual Northeast 
Asian crisis has thus taken shape. ... 
 
"Seoul keeps a low profile [with regard to Pyongyang's launch], 
Beijing focuses its attention on behind-the-scenes diplomacy, while 
Russia urges Pyongyang to cancel its launch.  That leaves only 
Washington and Tokyo to confront North Korea.  Since Japan must bear 
the first brunt, it has to take a tough stance.  But since [U.S. 
President Barack] Obama took office, the United States' policy 
toward North Korea has softened significantly.  Without any actual 
factor to elevate the conflicts, North Korea may just put on a 
deceptive show of power. ...  The financial tsunami has changed the 
international order.  Obama gave up the foreign policy adopted by 
George W. Bush.  But the wheel that squeaks gets the grease -- 
Pyongyang hopes the Americans will reach out to it as quickly as 
possible, so it decided to stage such a virtual crisis." 
 
YOUNG