VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0256/01 0680945
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 090945Z MAR 09
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1077
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8997
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0446

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000256 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused March 7-9 
news coverage on the debate over whether Taiwan should sign an 
Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China; on the 
Taiwan team's poor performance at the World Baseball Classic game 
Saturday; and on the on-going investigation into the corruption case 
against former President Chen Shui-bian and his family.  In terms of 
editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the pro-independence 
"Liberty Times" discussed an article recently published by 
Georgetown University professor Robert Sutter at the Center for 
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).  The article urged the 
Taiwan public to pay close attention to Sutter's warning against the 
Ma Ying-jeou Administration's pro-China policy and cautioned that 
"perhaps Washington will eventually give up on Taiwan and go 
straight ahead to talk with China about the future of Taiwan."  An 
editorial in the pro-independence "Taiwan News" also discussed 
Sutter's article and the recent remarks by Chinese Premier Wen 
Jiabao at China's National People's Congress.  The article said the 
only possible way for Taiwan to get out of its current quandary 
caused by Ma's pro-China policy "lies in an embrace of Taiwan's 
pluralist democracy and the opening of consultations with the 
Taiwan-centric opposition led by the DPP ... toward a consensus 
'bottom line' on China policy..."  End summary. 
 
A) "Pay Attention to a U.S. Scholar's Warning to the Ma 
Administration's Pro-China Policy" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 700,000] 
editorialized (3/7): 
 
"Robert Sutter, a U.S. Georgetown University professor, recently 
published an article at the Washington-based think tank Center for 
Strategy and International Studies (CSIS).  The article pointed out 
that, even though the United States encourages the ongoing 
reconciliation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, China's 
rapidly increasing influence on Taiwan has prevented the United 
States from implementing its longstanding goal to 'maintain balance 
in the Taiwan Strait region.'  Washington [thus] needs to have an 
overall review of its policy, [Sutter proposed.]  Sutter's true and 
pertinent analysis and warning came shortly after the Obama 
Administration took office and in the wake of Secretary of State 
Hillary Clinton's recent visit to East Asian nations, including 
China.  The Ma Ying-jeou Administration, which is now implementing a 
comprehensive pro-China policy, will likely turn a deaf ear [to 
Sutter's remarks.]  But the Taiwan people must stand on their toes 
and try the best they can to stop the worst scenario of 'Taiwan 
seeking refuge with China, the United States abandoning Taiwan' from 
happening. ... 
 
"We have clearly expounded Sutter's analysis and warning:  He has 
offered sincere observation and analysis of the triangular 
relationship among Taiwan, China and the United States.  Not only 
so, as a result of the evident imbalance caused by the Ma 
Administration's all-round tilting toward China, one can tell from 
Sutter's suggestion that the United States will likely be forced to 
skip Taiwan and work with its allies, such as Japan, to re-structure 
a contingency plan to cope with the rise of China.  The most serious 
[scenario] with Taiwan will be that, since the Ma Administration has 
decided single-heartedly to lean toward China, and it appears that 
it no longer needs the United States, perhaps Washington will 
eventually give up on Taiwan and go straight ahead to talk with 
China about the future of Taiwan.  Evidently, Sutter spoke from the 
perspective of U.S. interests and pointed out that the United States 
cannot do without a contingency plan while Taiwan is throwing itself 
into the arms of China.  But judging from the fact that the United 
States, with its need for China's cooperation on international 
issues such as North Korea, did not hesitate to suppress Taiwan's 
initiative to resist China, citing as a reason 'maintaining the 
status quo in the Taiwan Strait,' one cannot say that the coming 
back to power of Taiwan's pro-China forces was not related to the 
unwise Taiwan policy of the United States. ..." 
 
B) "What Wen's Report Means for Taiwan" 
 
The pro-independence "Taiwan News" [circulation: 20,000] 
editorialized (3/9): 
 
"... For example, in an article published by the prestigious Center 
for Strategy and International Studies Friday, prominent U.S. Taiwan 
analyst Robert Sutter cautioned that Washington's 'support for Ma's 
strong efforts to reassure China have not directly addressed 
changing realities of power and influence regarding Taiwan.' ... 
This question highlights the quandary in which Taiwan lies in the 
wake of Ma's drive for cross-strait detente through a tacit 
acceptance of the PRC's 'one China' principle which granted Beijing 
political leverage to reinforce the global impression that 'Taiwan 
is willing to become part of PRC, at least initially economically.' 
 
 
"The accelerated drive by top PRC leaders such as Hu and Wen for 
 
prompt talks on economic cooperation, a peace pact and unification 
has now pushed the KMT government and Ma, who as president is 
personally responsible for cross-strait policy, into a corner. 
Escape from this trap does not lie in a protestation by the KMT 
government that 'the Republic of China represents the one China' as 
such declarations are, at best, perceived by the world community as 
confirmation that a once assertively independent Taiwan is moving 
into China's orbit.  The only possible way out lies in an embrace of 
Taiwan's pluralist democracy and the opening of consultations with 
the Taiwan-centric opposition led by the Democratic Progressive 
Party and other social forces toward a consensus 'bottom line' on 
China policy before Taiwan's national interests and the democratic 
choice of Taiwanese people are irrevocably compromised." 
 
YOUNG