VZCZCXRO3934
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDA #0018/01 0891408
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O R 301408Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL ADANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4720
INFO RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1262
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0151
RUEHKB/AMEMBASSY BAKU 0025
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD FAS WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHFC/USOFFICE FSC CHARLESTON
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 1060
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHSI/AMEMBASSY TBILISI 0018
RUEHYE/AMEMBASSY YEREVAN 0020
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 1325

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADANA 000018 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU IZ
SUBJECT: TURKEY:  DTP SCORES KEY ELECTION VICTORIES IN SOUTHEAST 
TURKEY 
 
REF: ADANA 0016 
 
ADANA 00000018  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.   (SBU)  SUMMARY.  With over 99% of the votes tallied, 
official election results confirm a better-than-expected showing 
in the southeast for pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP), 
which picked up eight mayoral victories as well as 50 district 
mayor slots.  As predicted, the Justice and Development Party 
(AKP) lost five seats in Adana's consular district, two of them 
to the DTP.  Whether viewing this as DTP strength or AKP 
weakness, there are multiple interpretations of this outcome for 
Kurdish intellectuals and policymakers.  Voters sent a message 
that could be anti-AKP, pro-PKK, or simply pro-peace and 
democracy.  The important question now is how AKP will digest 
these losses in shaping future policies vis-`-vis Kurdish 
question.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
DTP RUNS UP THE SCORE 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U)  DTP scored important electoral victories in Igdir, 
Siirt and Van, unseating AKP incumbents.  They held Sirnak with 
54% of the vote, Diyarbakir with over 65%, Hakkari with 79%, as 
well as Tunceli, where a pro-AKP governor's questionably legal 
largesse in distributing appliances and sofas to win votes 
stirred major pre-election controversy and was widely derided by 
the public as a cheap ploy.  Former DTP party provincial 
chairman in Diyarbakir, Nejdet Atalay, swept to an easy victory 
in Batman.  DTP further consolidated gains with triumphs in 50 
boroughs throughout the southeast, up from 32 in the 2004 local 
elections.  The winners included Abdullah Demirbas, a mayor in 
one of Diyarbakir city's districts who was removed from office 
in 2007 for offering municipal services in multiple languages, 
including Kurdish.  (On the district level in Sanliurfa 
province, Halfeti, hometown of imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah 
Ocalan, transferred back to DTP control from CHP). 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  As predicted in reftel, AKP's bungled candidate 
selections (and unceremonious dumping of some popular 
incumbents) forced losses of four seats in Adana's consular 
district:  in addition to Siirt and Van, AKP lost Osmaniye to 
MHP and Sanliurfa to a Saadet Party (SP)-affiliated independent. 
 AKP rebuffed all three incumbents in those cities, and has now 
paid the price for what locals consider Prime Minister Erdogan's 
arrogant interference in local political dynamics outside of his 
understanding.  As expected, AKP remains virtually untouchable 
in eastern Anatolia (cities such as Adiyaman and Malatya) and in 
the most conservative pockets of the Kurdish region (Mus, 
Bingol).  While SP upped its vote to over 15% in many cities, 
the increase was not enough to stop the AKP. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) There is a possible fifth loss, Adana, as MHP incumbent 
Aytac (who was also forced out of the AKP) is in a dead heat 
with the AKP's Mehmet Ali Bilici.  Durak led throughout the 
vote-counting but Bilici was closing the gap as the final ballot 
boxes were about to be counted and inconsistencies emerged. 
Durak is already accusing the AKP of tampering with the results 
and the dispute will likely require recounts, court cases and 
several days or weeks to resolve. 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) COMMENT.  Speculation about what exactly the DTP's 
strong showing means has already started.  AKP's Kurdish policy 
has included initiatives such as the establishment of a Kurdish 
state TV channel TRT-6, support for the Ergenekon investigation 
and approval of Kurdish language departments in universities 
that should have translated into more votes in the southeast. 
But Erdogan's rhetoric, including an emotional "love it or leave 
it" statement, and AKP's approval of cross-border military 
operations have sapped trust among Kurds, apparently leading 
 
ADANA 00000018  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
many to conclude the AKP is really just another 
pro-establishment party.  The question now is what the AKP will 
do with this electoral lesson - will it redouble efforts to 
compete with DTP by reaching out more to the Kurds or behave 
more like an establishment party and ignore their demands?   END 
COMMENT. 
GREEN