VZCZCXRO0210
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDA #0016/01 0850707
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 260707Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL ADANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4716
INFO RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1258
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0148
RUEHKB/AMEMBASSY BAKU 0022
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD FAS WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHFC/USOFFICE FSC CHARLESTON
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 1057
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHSI/AMEMBASSY TBILISI 0015
RUEHYE/AMEMBASSY YEREVAN 0017
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 1321

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ADANA 000016 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: AKP FACING LOSSES, POSSIBLE EMBARRASSMENT IN SE 
MAYORAL CONTESTS 
 
REF: A. A) ADANA 12 
     ¶B. B) 08 ADANA 50 
 
ADANA 00000016  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
SUMMARY 
 
----------------- 
 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Of the 22 provincial capitals in southeastern Turkey, 
AKP holds the mayoralty in 15 cities, the pro-Kurdish DTP runs 
five municipalities and the CHP and DP have one mayor each. 
While AKP candidates will do very well again this year, the 
party is likely to lose two-to-four seats and its vote total 
will decrease, thanks in part to competition for religious 
voters from the Saadet Party (SP) in conservative eastern 
Anatolia.  The nationalist MHP and DTP look to be the main 
beneficiaries, each winning two cities, though the DTP's upside 
is as much as five.  Adana is the big prize, because of it 
national stature and the gamble AKP took by not selecting its 
four-term incumbent to run again.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) We have been hearing about the March 29 municipal 
elections for the past year during our travels throughout the 
region and have been working the phones for the last few weeks. 
Moving east to west, this is our analysis of what to expect. 
 
 
 
THE FAR EAST:  AKP AND DTP BATTLEGROUND 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
---------- 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) After Diyarbakir, Van is the biggest prize in the 
Kurdish region.  The AKP incumbent mayor is vulnerable, both 
because of his lackluster performance and the growing popularity 
of Saadet, which could siphon off sufficient AKP votes to hand 
the race to the DTP.  Our contacts all believe that DTP will win 
the most votes, but many also believe AKP could resort to 
election fraud to hold the seat.  Bitlis, Siirt, Mus and Bingol 
are among the most religiously conservative provinces in the 
country and should be safe bets for AKP to retain.  Careless 
candidate selection by the AKP in Siirt and a surge by Saadet in 
Mus, however, could produce an upset or two by DTP.  Hakkari, 
sandwiched between Iran and Iraq, looks safe for DTP. 
 
 
 
THE SOUTHERN BORDER:  SP AND DTP CHALLENGING AKP HEGEMONY 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Mardin and Sanliurfa provinces are ethnically mixed 
(Kurdish and Arab) and religious, allowing the AKP to hold a 
comfortable lead over DTP in recent elections.  In Sanliurfa, 
the AKP refused to renominate its incumbent mayor Ahmet 
Fakibaba, who is Saadet's candidate even though he is 
technically running as an independent.  Our contacts believe 
Fakibaba's personal popularity, his honesty and record of good 
governance will propel him to victory, though the decrease in 
AKP votes will make this a three-way race, giving DTP an outside 
chance.  The AKP is also struggling to hold Mardin because of 
growing support for DTP and the likelihood that a third party, 
the Democratic Party (DP), will siphon votes from AKP. 
 
 
 
DIYARBAKIR AND BATMAN:  KURDISH FORTRESSES 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
----------------- 
 
 
ADANA 00000016  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Although PM Erdogan targeted Diyarbakir as a top AKP 
priority, DTP incumbent Osman Baydemir appears on track for 
reelection.  The AKP candidate Kutbettin Arzu lacks charisma, 
and Diyarbakir's influential intellectual community has been 
tepid towards the AKP's pro-Kurdish reforms.  An AKP upset would 
trigger a major earthquake - potentially violent - in Kurdish 
politics.  Batman, which has more religious voters and a strong 
AKP candidate, could be close but DTP is expected to hold on 
with Necdet Atalay, a young engineer and former DTP provincial 
chairman of Diyarbakir. 
 
 
 
EASTERN ANATOLIA:  ALEVIS AND STRANGE BEDFELLOWS 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
--------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Isolated in the mountains, Tunceli is Turkey's sole 
Alevi-majority province - and one of the most famous cities in 
this election owing to the activities of the governor (legally 
above politics), who was caught distributing household 
appliances and sofas to families as part of a ploy to increase 
support for the AKP.  Our contacts believe AKP has still failed 
to gain the Alevis' trust and DTP candidate Edibe Sahin, a 
49-year-old mother of two and youth therapist is favored; 
however,t CHP and an independent leftist could also do well.  In 
Elazig, AKP backed the DP incumbent, who switched parties to 
secure victory.  This sparked considerable animosity within 
party ranks, and just a week ago the press reported 1,600 AKP 
party members publically defected to SP.  Intra-party fighting 
in Malatya has created even bigger problems for the AKP, which 
again jettisoned a popular incumbent.  SP has nominated a former 
MHP mayor, Yasar Cerci, who had a strong support base among 
Malatya's Alevi community representing about one-third of the 
voters.  For staunchly pro-secular Alevis to support the SP is 
the ultimate in strange bedfellows.  Adiyaman's popular and 
competent AKP mayor is a safe bet. 
 
 
 
THE SYRIAN BORDER:  AKP SAFEHAVENS 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Gaziantep, Antakya and Kilis appear to be truly safe 
seats for AKP.  Gaziantep has thrived thanks to booming exports 
to Iraq and Europe and its municipality has been well managed by 
the incumbent mayor, who is running again.  Antakya has 
relatively large population of religious minorities - Orthodox 
and Catholics - as well as a high percentage of Muslim Arabs, 
all of whom have positive relations with the local AKP 
administration. 
 
 
 
CUKUROVA:  DIVIDED AKP FALLS 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) In the four cities of Mersin, Adana, Osmaniye and 
Kahramanmaras, AKP currently holds three mayoralties, but it may 
lose all but one on March 29.  Mersin's two-term CHP mayor, 
Macit Ozcan, is cruising to re-election thanks to an 
uncharacteristically efficient party machine and weak 
opposition.  In Adana (reftels), AKP hubris led the party to 
oust four-term incumbent Aytac Durak, who has found a new home 
with MHP.  PM Erdogan is rumored to be planning a second 
campaign visit to Adana to try to defeat Durak, who is wobbly 
but still standing.  Osmaniye is the hometown of MHP Chairman 
Devlet Bahceli, who is intent on winning the city from AKP, 
 
ADANA 00000016  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
which has again dumped its incumbent and largely successful 
mayor, reportedly due to intra-party feuding.  In Kahramanmaras, 
the AKP received 81% of the vote in the 2007 elections and while 
the AKP mayor cannot equal that record, he is set to win 
comfortably. 
 
 
 
CONCLUSION:  PINPRICKS IN THE ARMOR 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------------ 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Of the 22 provinces in Adana's district, the DTP and 
MHP are each poised to pick up two mayoralties at the AKP's 
expense and another should go to the SP-supported Fakibaba in 
Sanliurfa.  AKP is expected to gain one seat in Elazig.  In the 
worst-case scenario, AKP's losses could be as high as eight, 
leaving the AKP in control of only 8 cities.  In the Kurdish 
regions, the rough equality between the DTP and AKP may shift 
slightly towards the DTP, but only because of SP's ability to 
poach AKP votes. 
 
 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Some of AKP's problems in southeastern Turkey are 
undoubtedly due to the faltering economy and the inevitable 
malaise that afflicts any ruling party that has been in office 
more than six years.  But many of the wounds in the election 
races analyzed here are self-inflicted.  Candidate selection, 
particularly in Van, Siirt, Sanliurfa and Adana, has put AKP in 
a much weaker position in numerous cities, forcing the party to 
pour resources into areas that should have been easier to 
defend.  While AKP can attribute losses east of the Euphrates to 
ethnic and tribal voting (with some cause), an AKP defeat in 
Adana would be a major setback: since 2002, through skill, luck 
and incompetent opposition, the AKP has avoided major electoral 
blunders.  But if the wily 70-year-old Adana mayor Durak 
outmaneuvers PM Erdogan, others may conclude the AKP leader's 
brilliant career is beyond its apex. 
GREEN