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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ABUJA 000475 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA 
BAGHDAD FOR DMCCULLOUGH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OTRA ASEC PHUM PREL KIRF NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SCENESETTER FOR USCIRF VISIT (MARCH 
19-APRIL 3, 2009) 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 0435 
     ¶B. STATE 20346 
 
INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY 
------------------------ 
¶1. (SBU) U.S. Mission Nigeria warmly welcomes the U.S. 
Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF).  Your 
visit comes two years into President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua's 
four-year term.  Though the President came to power through 
deeply flawed elections in April 2007, there was hope from 
Nigerians and the international community during his first 
year in office for forward progress given his pledges to 
reform Nigeria's political system, improve the economy, and 
instill a culture of respect for the rule of law.  Currently 
at the halfway point of his tenure, however, Yar'Adua has 
provided few, if any, tangible results or signs of progress 
on the many serious challenges inherited by his 
administration.  Decades of unaccountable rule suppressed 
Nigeria's democratic institutions, eroded health and 
education infrastructure, failed to combat HIV/AIDS, and 
impoverished the population.  Revenues from crude oil, 
virtually the country's only meaningful export, amount to 
just a dollar a day for each of Nigeria's estimated 145 
million people, and most of this has disappeared into the 
hands of a very small, corrupt elite.  An ongoing crisis in 
electricity generation and delivery has crippled the tiny 
manufacturing sector.  Despite successful macroeconomic 
reforms in recent years, most Nigerians live in poverty. 
Stability and security are challenged in both the North 
(where most of Nigeria's more than 70 million Muslims live) 
and the oil and gas-producing Niger Delta region by poor 
governance, corruption, and communal conflict.  With no 
indication of change in the near future, the hope that 
Yar'Adua's promised reforms will come to fruition is slowly 
diminishing.  End introduction and summary. 
 
POLITICS OF THE MOMENT 
---------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) In April 2007, Nigeria held its third general 
election since the return to civilian rule in 1999, and in 
May 2007 President Yar'Adua of the ruling People's Democratic 
Party (PDP) assumed office.  The transition from Olusegun 
Obasanjo to Umaru Yar'Adua was the first successful 
civilian-to-civilian transfer of power in Nigeria's history: 
a noteworthy achievement.  However, most independent foreign 
and domestic observers agreed that the election which brought 
Yar'Adua to power was deeply flawed.  Two major opposition 
candidates filed challenges to the outcome, but in February 
2008, the Presidential Election Tribunal upheld the election, 
as did the Supreme Court on December 12, 2008.  Prior to 
these rulings, many Nigerian and international observers 
believed President Yar'Adua would begin taking decisive steps 
toward reform once the Supreme Court issued its ruling on the 
validity of his election; however, there has been no sign of 
significant progress to date. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  The President himself admitted that his election 
was flawed, and in August 2007, as part of his pledge to 
address the shortcomings in the electoral system, he 
established the 22-member Electoral Reform Commission (ERC). 
Consisting of governmental and NGO representatives, the 
committee was charged with making recommendations to improve 
future elections in Nigeria.  On December 11, 2008, following 
regular meetings throughout the year and public hearings 
across the country in May and June of 2008, the ERC submitted 
its report to President Yar'Adua.  The report cited lack of 
independence within the Independent National Electoral 
Commission (INEC) as one of the key deficiencies in the April 
2007 election process.  The ERC report outlined a list of 
recommendations, which included a system of proportional 
representation for both legislative and local elections as 
well as the reinstatement of independent candidacies.  The 
report also called for the creation of three new commissions 
that would relieve INEC of many responsibilities in order to 
allow it to focus solely on the conduct of elections.  On 
March 11, the Federal Executive Council (FEC - a GON 
cabinet-like structure) accepted many of the ERC suggestions, 
 
ABUJA 00000475  002 OF 005 
 
 
but rejected the key recommendation that the INEC Chairman 
and Deputy Chairman be independently appointed by the 
National Judicial Council (NJC) rather than the President. 
 
THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN 
--------------------- 
¶4. (SBU)  The global economic crisis has taken a toll in 
Nigeria.  The drop in international crude oil prices has 
affected Nigeria's currency and budget.  The Nigerian naira 
has seen a 30 percent depreciation versus the U.S. dollar 
since November 2008.  Crude oil exports account for 80 
percent of government revenue and 90 percent of export 
earnings and have been hit hard by decreasing global demand 
and sliding oil prices.  Crude oil prices are hovering in the 
low to mid $40 per barrel range and Nigeria's oil production 
has dropped from 2.2 million barrels per day to 1.6 million. 
Per these figures, revenue to the federal and state 
governments has dwindled.  Based on current revenue 
projections and the recently passed 2009 federal budget, 
experts contend the government will accrue a deficit of 
approximately $7.4 billion in 2009. 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Inflation has risen from the single digits to 14 
percent over the past 12 months.  The Nigerian stock exchange 
has lost much of its value since early 2008 and recently was 
declared by CNN as one of the worst performing stock markets 
in the world.  (Note: Although this is more reflective of the 
post global financial crisis, given that from 2006 to early 
2008 it had high rates of return.  End Note.)  On a positive 
note, the Nigerian government has made a commitment to 
reforming trade policy.  In September 2008, it reduced the 
number of banned imported products from 44 to 26 and 
implemented the Economic Community of West African States 
(ECOWAS) Common External Tariff.  The USG will host the U.S. 
- Nigeria Trade and Investment Framework Agreement Council 
Meeting on March 30 in Washington to discuss improving the 
investment climate and possible movement towards a bilateral 
investment treaty.   Job creation and new investment are 
hampered by infrastructure problems, legal barriers to market 
access, high interest rates, and lack of investor confidence 
in the rule of law. 
 
HUMAN RIGHTS IN NIGERIA 
----------------------- 
¶6. (SBU) Nigeria's human rights record remained poor as noted 
in the 2008 Human Rights Report released on February 25. 
Some of the most significant human rights problems included 
the abridgment of citizens' right to change their government; 
restrictions on freedom of speech, press, and religion; 
societal violence; and ethnic, regional, and religious 
discrimination.  In 1995 the GON established the National 
Human Rights Commission (NHRC) which is tasked with the 
promotion and protection of human rights through a variety of 
mechanisms, including: providing human rights awareness 
training; receiving and investigating complaints; and 
implementing the country's National Action Plan (NAP) for the 
Promotion and Protection of Human Rights.  Although the NHRC 
actively investigates and reports on certain complaints of 
abuse, it lacks judicial authority and can only make 
nonbinding recommendations to the government.  Civil society 
organizations throughout Nigeria are active and vocal about 
human rights abuses, but generally lack the capacity to 
successfully advocate or implement reforms. 
 
RELIGIOUS FREEDOM AND DISCRIMINATION 
------------------------------------ 
¶7. (SBU) The constitution and law provide for freedom of 
religion, but societal discrimination and ethno-religious 
differences have led to frequent conflict over the years.  Of 
the more than 145 million people in Nigeria, it is estimated 
that half are Muslim and close to half are Christian.  The 
North, dominated by Hausa-Fulani ethnic groups is 
predominantly Muslim, while most southern ethnic groups are 
Christian.  However, significant Christian communities have 
resided and intermarried with Muslims in the North for more 
than 50 years.  Hostility between Muslims and Christians in 
the north increased in 2000, when 12 states (Sokoto, Kebbi, 
 
ABUJA 00000475  003 OF 005 
 
 
Niger, Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Jigawa, Yobe, Bauchi, Borno, 
Zamfara, and Gombe) reintroduced criminal law aspects of the 
Muslim Shari'a legal system; and some tensions remain in 
selected states today.  There have also been increased 
reports of conflict between Sunni and Shi'a Muslims.  Though 
the majority of the Muslim population is Sunni, there is a 
significant Shi'a minority, particularly in Sokoto, Kano, and 
Kaduna States.  Tension overall remains acute in certain 
areas, and is exacerbated by discriminatory and unequal 
employment patterns and resource competition.  Competition 
for economic and political power often correlates with 
religious differences between groups, allowing conflicts of a 
socioeconomic nature to divide people along sectarian lines. 
At the heart of many conflicts is the distinction between 
"indigenes" - ethnic groups identified under Nigerian law as 
the original inhabitants of a specific area - and "settlers". 
 Throughout Nigeria, indigenes are granted certain 
privileges, including access to government employment, 
scholarships for state schools, lower school fees, and 
political positions.  To receive such privileges, one must 
produce a certificate of indigeneship which is granted by 
local government authorities.  The concept of "indigeneship" 
has been repeatedly exploited and used in societal 
discrimination against minority ethnic and religious groups. 
 
KANO 
---- 
¶8. (SBU) Kano, capital of Kano State, is the second largest 
city in Nigeria after Lagos.  While Islam is the predominant 
religion practiced by Kano's majority ethnic Hausa 
population, the city is also home to a large Christian 
minority.  Similar to other northern states, Kano has 
experienced violent religious clashes, the most significant 
in 2004.  In some cases, the violence has been in reaction to 
clashes in other nearby states such as Kaduna, Bauchi, and 
Plateau.  For example, a May 2004 clash in Yelwa, Plateau 
State, that resulted in the death of several hundred Muslims, 
prompted the Muslims of Kano to stage a reprisal, killing 
over 200 Christians.  In the wake of the November 2008 Jos 
violence, Kano Governor Ibrahim Shekarau (of the All-Nigerian 
People's Party -- ANPP) and Emir Ado Bayero, the traditional 
ruler of Kano since 1963, made great efforts to prevent the 
violence from spilling over once again by reinforcing 
security forces and calling on citizens to maintain peace. 
Despite those collaborative efforts, there are also reports 
of a power struggle growing between the Kano Governor and the 
state's Emir. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Kano is also known for its burgeoning movie industry 
and is home to many aspiring filmmakers and actors.  Due to 
strict Muslim laws and customs, there are occasional clashes 
between the film industry, religious community, and state 
authorities.  The most recent controversy was over the trial 
of film producer Hamisu Lamido, known as Iyan Tama.  Iyan 
Tama was tried, convicted, and sentenced to 15 months in 
prison and a 300,000 naira ($2034) fine for violating Kano 
State censorship laws by releasing the film "Tsintsiya," a 
Hausa adaptation of "West Side Story," without first having 
it approved by the state censor board. (Note: The U.S. 
Mission sponsored production of Tsintsiya as a means of 
promoting interfaith dialogue.  The film was not released in 
Kano, but in Abuja, and found its way onto Kano markets. 
Hence, the Kano State Censor Board's reaction.  End Note.) 
Some claim that state authorities, including Governor 
Shekarau, are trying to make an example of Iyan Tama to 
discourage the film industry from operating in Kano.  During 
a March 12 appeal, the Kano State Attorney General claimed 
that due process was not followed and that the charges should 
be dropped.  On March 16, the Kano State High Court nullified 
the lower court's verdict on grounds the trial contravened 
due process and was not properly conducted.  The court ruled 
that the case be retried before another magistrate but did 
not announce a date.  Iyan Tama was granted bail with bond of 
500,000 naira ($3390) and released on March 16 after spending 
more than 60 days in detention. 
 
KADUNA 
 
ABUJA 00000475  004 OF 005 
 
 
------ 
¶10. (SBU) While the northern parts of Kaduna State and its 
capital Kaduna are dominated by Hausa/Fulani Muslims, the 
southern part of the city and of the state are dominated by 
Christians, who come from around 30 ethnic groups and are 
estimated to make up half the total population.  Once praised 
for its peaceful integration of ethnic groups and religions, 
Kaduna has experienced an increase in inter-religious 
conflict over the past decade.  The tensions that led to 
these clashes however, go back as far as colonial rule and 
have complicated ethnic and political dimensions.  Most 
notable amongst the conflicts were the riots following 
Kaduna's implementation of Shari'a law in 2000 and the 
controversial Miss World beauty pageant of 2002.  The 
violence in 2000 led to the displacement of a large number of 
both Muslims and Christians and created a more noticeable 
physical segregation in the population as Christians and 
Muslims increasingly moved to areas dominated by people of 
their own faith in search of safety.  The city of Kaduna 
remains divided with most Muslims living in the north and the 
Christians in the south.  Kaduna State is currently governed 
by Mohammed Namadi Sambo of the ruling PDP, who has 
undertaken proactive efforts to foster peace and 
reconciliation. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Intra-religious tensions also appear to be 
escalating between Kaduna State's Sunni and Shi'a Muslim 
communities, most recently in the city of Zaria.  Zaria is 
also home to Kaduna State's traditional ruler, the Emir of 
Zaria, Alhaji Shehu Idris.  While traveling through Zaria on 
January 6, the Emir's convoy came upon a group of Shi'ites, 
who refused the Emir passage and threw stones at his vehicle. 
 Sunni supporters of the Emir, upset by the attack, 
reportedly burned down the house of a Shi'a leader as 
retribution.  The Emir, aware of the potential spread of such 
attacks, immediately called on his followers to maintain 
peace and refrain from violence. 
 
BAUCHI 
------ 
¶12. (SBU) Bauchi State is a northern state with a Muslim 
Hausa-Fulani majority, but also significant populations of 
smaller Christian groups.  Bauchi is currently governed by 
first-term Governor Isa Yuguda, a member of the ANPP.  (Note: 
On January 24, Yuguda married his fourth wife, Nafisa 
Yar'Adua, daughter of President Yar'Adua.  End Note.)  Bauchi 
has experienced several conflicts between its Muslim and 
Christian populations over the past year.  Most recently on 
February 21, sectarian violence broke out in Bauchi town, 
just 80 miles from Jos, when two different Muslim factions 
arrived to worship at a mosque at the same time, in violation 
of an agreement worked out previously to give each group its 
own time for services.  The greater-than-usual numbers of 
people overflowed the mosque's parking area, resulting in 
some worshippers demanding parking space at a church 50 
meters down the road.  Upon being refused permission to park 
at the church, press reports claim that members of the 
aggrieved faction burned the church down.  A short time 
later, unidentified persons destroyed the mosque and events 
quickly escalated.  In the end, 11 people were reportedly 
killed, anywhere from 6-13 churches and one mosque burned 
down, and in subsequent, localized outbursts of violence, 
shops and homes looted and destroyed.  Governor Yuguda 
immediately implemented a dusk-to-dawn curfew which remained 
in effect for over a week as military troops regained control 
of the city.  As of March 11, the curfew has been lifted and 
a tense peace remains. 
 
JOS 
--- 
¶13. (SBU) Jos is the capital city of Plateau State, a 
north-central or "Middle Belt" state with an ethnically and 
religiously diverse population.  While Christians are in the 
majority in the state as a whole, Muslims make up a large 
minority, especially in the northern part of the city of Jos 
where they have lived for decades.  The Berom people, the 
largest Christian ethnic group in the state, however, 
 
ABUJA 00000475  005 OF 005 
 
 
consider Hausas "settlers" and themselves the "indigenes" of 
the area, a claim that has created tension with their Hausa 
Muslim neighbors.  Influential positions in the state 
government and many Local Government Areas (LGA) tend to be 
dominated by Christians, which has led to feelings of 
resentment and marginalization by the Muslim community, many 
of whom are in fact descendants of Hausas who moved to the 
area in the early years of the 20th century.  On November 27, 
2008, ethno-religious violence erupted during the vote 
tabulation for the Jos North Local Government Area elections, 
when (mostly Muslim Hausa) supporters of the opposition ANPP 
accused the ruling PDP of attempting to rig the results.  The 
violence resulted in the deaths of approximately 300 persons. 
 Governor Jonah Jang, a member of the ruling PDP and 
Christian Berom majority, was criticized for his handling of 
the crisis and fear of renewed violence remains.  As with 
previous such outbreaks, local elites may have exploited 
underlying tensions between the Muslim Hausa-Fulani in Jos 
North and surrounding Christian ethnic groups for political 
purposes.  Similar outbreaks of ethnic violence have occurred 
many times before in Jos, including most recently in 1994, 
2001, and 2004. 
 
JOS INVESTIGATIONS 
------------------ 
¶14.  (SBU) On December 25, 2008, President Yar'Adua 
established an eight-person Administrative Panel of Inquiry 
to investigate the Jos violence and appointed Major-General 
Emmanuel Abisoye, a Christian Yoruba from Kwara State, as the 
Chairman.  Other members of the panel include: Festus Okoye, 
a human rights lawyer; Ambassador Godfrey B. Preware, former 
Director-General of the National Intelligence Agency from 
1998-1999; Ambassador Fatai Sa'ad Abubakar; and Musa Shafi'l, 
a Director in the Presidency.  The Nigeria Police Force, 
State Security Services, and Nigerian Armed Forces were also 
asked to submit one nominee each to participate in the panel. 
 In response to the federal government's action, Governor 
Jang immediately filed suit with the Supreme Court, 
contending that the President did not have the authority to 
investigate state affairs.  Jang also sought an injunction to 
force the panel to cease proceedings, but no ruling has been 
issued by the Supreme Court to date.  On December 30, 
Governor Jang established his own state-level Judicial 
Commission of Inquiry headed by Prince Bola Ajibola, a Muslim 
Yoruba from Ogun State.  Ajibola was a former Attorney 
General under General Ibrahim Babangida and one-time Judge at 
the International Court of Justice at The Hague.  Some 
praised Jang's choice of a Muslim as chairman, while others 
were quick to point out that while Ajibola is Muslim, he is 
not Hausa/Fulani, which is the predominant ethnic group of 
Jos Muslims.  To date, neither panel has reached a conclusion. 
 
SECURITY CONCERNS 
----------------- 
¶15. (SBU) Security concerns currently prohibit U.S. Mission 
personnel or anyone under Chief of Mission authority from 
traveling to metropolitan Jos.  In addition to tensions still 
remaining high, several recent incidents have created cause 
for concern.  On March 7, the senior Berom Traditional Ruler, 
the Gbong Gwom Jos, died at the age of 73.  The new Gbong 
Gwom has yet to be announced and, given the current tensions 
in Plateau and Bauchi States, the succession struggle over 
who will be the next Gbong Gwom has begun and could spark a 
return to violence.  In a demonstration of the hostility 
still present, a motorcade conveying both Governor Jang and 
President Yar'Adua (who were traveled together to pay a 
condolence visit on the Gbong Gwom's family) was attacked and 
stoned on March 9.  As they were in the same vehicle, it is 
difficult to determine if the aggression was directed towards 
the Governor, President, or both. 
 
¶16. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos. 
SANDERS