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P 021420Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8968
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000059 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/PPD, EUR/RPM AND EUR/OSD FOR POPOVICH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV HR
SUBJECT: ZAGREB WEEKLY ACTIVITY REPORT - JANUARY 29, 2009 
 
¶1.  (U) EBRD PRESENTS ANNUAL TRANSITION REPORT; ZERO GROWTH 
PROJECTED: 
EBRD Lead Economist Peter Sanfey presented the report in 
Zagreb this week, in which the bank downgraded growth 
projections for Croatia to zero for 2009.  Sanfey claimed 
this was an optimistic scenario, given that most other 
countries in the region face negative growth projections. 
Croatia's top five trading partners in western Europe also 
face negative growth forecasts, which is a worrisome sign 
for Croatia's already weak export sector.  Sanfey praised 
Croatia's overall reform path, however, and called on the 
government to focus efforts in four areas: privatization of 
remaining state assets, particularly shipyards, improving 
the business climate by elimination of unnecessary 
regulations, health and pension reform, and completion of 
the EU accession process.  (DWestfall) 
 
¶2.  (U) BELGIUM APPROVES CROATIA'S NATO ACCESSION PROTOCOL: 
The MFA reported on January 30 that it received 
notification that the Parliament of Belgium approved 
Croatia's accession protocol.  The MFA said that by its 
count Belgium was the 19th NATO member country whose 
parliament passed the protocol.  (PD'Amico) 
 
¶3.  (U) HOOLINGANISM MARS HANDBALL CHAMPIONSHIP: 
Controversy and acts of violence aimed mostly against the 
visiting Serbian handball team 
have disrupted Croatia's otherwise successful hosting of 
the World Handball Championship. 
Problems began on Jan. 23 when Zivko Kolega, the mayor of 
Zadar, one of the host cities, removed 
the flags of all 24 competing teams from the city's main 
square.  Kolega argued that he was 
responding to complaints about the presence of the Serbian 
flag.  Ethnic tensions still run high 
in the Zadar area, which saw heavy fighting during the 
1990's conflict.  Though Kolega claimed 
his actions were preventative, violent incidents were 
reported only after the flags were removed. 
A bomb threat was reported at the hotel where Serbian 
players were staying, a car with Serbian 
plates was vandalized, and a Macedonian fan was beaten with 
a baseball bat.  The Serbian team did 
not attend a closing reception hosted by the mayor. 
Kolega's actions were also widely criticized 
in the media and by leading figures among the ruling HDZ 
party, including Kolega's predecessor. 
There are reports that Kolega will not run for re-election 
in the upcoming municipal elections 
(see items below).  Ethnic incidents during the tournament 
have not been exclusively in Zadar, 
however.  In Zagreb, two youth were detained for trying to 
set the Serbian flag afire in the main 
square, and Serb fans also reported some harassment in the 
Istrian town of Porec. (JNCallahan) 
 
¶4.  (U) USG FUNDS REGIONAL DEMINING WORKSHOP: 
The Croatian Mine Action Center (CROMAC) on January 26 
hosted representatives from several countries for a 
one-week workshop on combining satellite and aerial imagery 
with landmine databases to generate detailed predictions of 
danger-zones for landmines.  The workshop was funded by the 
U.S. Government through the International Trust Fund (ITF). 
Participants included Mine Action Center officials and 
Geographic Information System experts from Croatia, Serbia, 
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Macedonia, and Azerbaijan. 
 Participants learned about the latest technologies for 
developing maps which better indicate probability levels 
for landmines and discussed how to expand the Croatian 
pilot project to other countries.  ITF announced that it is 
funding an expansion of the project to Bosnia. (CZimmer) 
 
¶5. (U) TWEAKS TO LOCAL ELECTION LAW LOOK LIKELY: 
The leading election-monitoring NGO "GONG" along with the 
Law Faculty of Zagreb organized a 
panel discussion on January 27 to discuss some legal 
ambiguities present in the new local 
election laws, which provides for the direct election of 
mayors and county prefects (zupans). 
The roundtable included prominent members of parliament, 
the government, and academics and while 
disagreeing on whether direct elections of local government 
executives would bring "more" 
democracy, they did agree on list of changes to improve the 
functioning of the new local election 
law.  This included, for instance, further clarifying the 
powers to be wielded by mayors and 
county prefects vis-Q-vis the relevant local assemblies. 
The roundtable also identified several 
 
ZAGREB 00000059  002 OF 002 
 
 
other laws regarding local governance that should be 
amended to bring them in line with the new 
local election law. (ZTOMIC) 
 
¶6. (U)PARTIES JOCKEY OVER MAYORAL CANDIDATES: 
The center-right HDZ on January 27 named the youthful 
city-counsel woman and parliamentarian 
Vesna Buterin as their candidate for mayor of Rijeka after 
their first choice, the director of the 
Rijeka Port, declined to run.  The HDZ hasn't officially 
named its candidate for prefect in the 
Primorje-Gorski Kotar, which includes Rijeka, but local 
media report they have asked Josip Boric, 
Director for Island and Coastal Development in the central 
government, to run.  Regardless 
of the fresh faces, the HDZ has a steep hill to climb in 
Rijeka.  In Zagreb, Radimir Cacic, 
president of the Croatian Peoples' Party (HNS), is likely 
to pull out of the race for Mayor 
despite recent polls that show him as the only candidate 
anywhere close to incumbent Zagreb mayor 
Milan Bandic.  Cacic, who is rumored to have his sights on 
the presidency, may not want to lose a 
local election contest just prior to possibly contesting 
the presidency in January 2010.  In 
place of Cacic, the HNS is expected to announce that Zagreb 
city-council woman and former 
parliamentarian Alenka Kosisa Cicin-Sain will be their 
candidate for mayor. Also this week, 
Branimir Glavas, head of the Croatian Democratic Alliance 
of Slavonia and Baranja (HDSSB), announced 
that he would not run for mayor of Osijek but for county 
prefect of Osijek-Baranje. While the 
currrent county prefect, Kresimir Bubablo, would be the 
HDSSB's candidate for mayor in Osijek. 
(DMEGES) 
 
 
BRADTKE