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PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
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DE RUEHVB #0103/01 0541314
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231314Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9028
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000103 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE, OES/EGC, OES/PCI, AND 
EEB/ESC/IEC/ENR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ENRG PGOV KGHG HR
SUBJECT: UNDP 2008 HUMAN DEVT REPORT: CLIMATE CHANGE AND 
ITS IMPACTS ON SOCIETY AND ECONOMY IN CROATIA 
 
¶1. Summary: On February 16, UNDP released its 2008 Human 
Development Report for Croatia, which analyzes the links 
between climate change, the economy, and human development. 
While expected warmer temperatures could have good or bad 
effects on tourism in Croatia, rising sea-levels and 
increased frequency in droughts and other severe weather 
events will have mostly negative effects on the country and 
its economy. The report estimates that significant emissions 
reductions can be achieved through cost-saving and 
cost-neutral measures. Implementing a fuller range of options 
to bring emissions to 30 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, 
however, could cost EUR 115-536 million per year. A key 
strength for Croatia as it works to meet the challenges of 
climate change is overwhelming public support for taking 
action to reduce emissions. End summary. 
 
¶2. On February 16, UNDP released its 2008 Human Development 
Report for Croatia, which for the first time analyzes the 
links between climate change, the economy, and human 
development. Speaking at the release event, UNDP Resident 
Representative in Croatia Yuri Afanasiev said the report was 
not intended to preach doom or inspire fear. He said that 
while analysis indicates climate change likely poses serious 
threats to human development in Croatia, it also has 
potential to bring some beneficial opportunities. He said 
strong public support for actions to counter climate change 
also will help Croatia rise to the challenges it may face. In 
his remarks at the event, President Mesic said now is the 
time to act to mitigate climate change, and the economic 
crisis should not be used as an excuse for delay. 
 
Strong Public Support for Action on Climate Change 
------------------ 
 
¶3. The report included the first ever comprehensive survey on 
public attitudes toward climate change in Croatia. The 
findings indicate 96 percent of Croatians believe climate 
change is a problem, and most say a serious problem. 
Croatians overwhelmingly believe the country should do as 
much as (37 percent) or more than (54 percent) developed 
countries in reducing emissions. Nearly 70 percent of 
respondents said they were willing to pay more for 
electricity that does not emit greenhouse gases, compared to 
44 percent across the EU. 
 
A Warmer Croatia: Bad or Good for Tourism? 
------------------- 
 
¶4. During the 20th century, Croatia experienced decreasing 
precipitation and increasing temperatures. Climate models 
indicate this trend of a drier, hotter Croatia will continue. 
The trend will likely affect tourism, Croatia's key industry. 
The report cites long-term projections that hotter 
temperatures along the Adriatic Coast will prompt tourists to 
opt for cooler destinations in the north, which could have 
serious adverse effects on coastal communities and even the 
national economy. The report also notes, however, that warmer 
temperatures could alternatively have a positive effect on 
tourism by lengthening the tourist season or creating two 
seasons, in spring and autumn. 
 
Coastal Flooding and Inland Droughts 
------------------- 
 
¶5. With its many miles of coastline and numerous islands, 
Croatia may face significant vulnerability to sea-level rise. 
According to rudimentary analysis in the report, a rise of 50 
cm would submerge over 100 square kilometers of land, while a 
rise of 88 cm would submerge over 112 million square 
kilometers. The report notes that any rise will be gradual, 
so there is time to develop the best mitigation measures for 
specific locations. Climate change could also lead to more 
droughts in Croatia. Initial projections indicate that 
resulting decreases in river flow could cause a loss of EUR 
17-86 million per year from hydropower losses alone, with 
multiplier effects throughout the economy. The findings in 
the report suggest agriculture will suffer the most severe 
impacts of climate change, as weather-related disasters 
increase in frequency in Croatia, as throughout the world. 
Already in 2000-2007, extreme weather events resulted in 
average losses for Croatian agriculture of EUR 176 million 
per year, or 0.6 percent of GDP. 
 
Mitigation Costs: From Small Economic Benefit to Big Costs 
-------------------- 
 
¶6. The report says many "no regrets" mitigation measures 
(mostly related to energy efficiency) would actually save 
money and benefit the economy. Many other measures would be 
 
ZAGREB 00000103  002 OF 002 
 
 
cost-neutral or cost relatively small amounts. The report 
estimates Croatia could stabilize emissions at about 30 
million tons with a slight economic benefit due to energy 
savings. At the other extreme, Croatia theoretically could 
reduce emissions 30 percent below baseline 1990 levels of 36 
million tons by 2020, but at a cost of EUR 115-536 million 
per year. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. Although the current economic crisis may somewhat dampen 
enthusiasm, the strong public support for climate change 
mitigation shown in this survey should be welcome news for 
the GOC. With this message of support, as well as indications 
of possible dire consequences, this report is well timed as 
the parliament deliberates over a national energy strategy 
with very ambitious renewable energy goals. 
BRADTKE