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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 TOKYO 000419 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02/24/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Rumor going around in LDP that general election would occur in 
May; Full-scale maneuvering over drive to remove Prime Minister Aso 
from office; Financial summit as his swan song (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(2) Political parties - part 1: Security issue could spark political 
realignment (Yomiuri) 
 
(3) Asahi attack: Man reported to have ordered the attack protests 
Shukan Shincho (Mainichi) 
 
(4) TOP HEADLINES 
 
(5) EDITORIALS 
 
(6) Prime Minister's schedule, February 23 (Nikkei) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Rumor going around in LDP that general election would occur in 
May; Full-scale maneuvering over drive to remove Prime Minister Aso 
from office; Financial summit as his swan song 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
February 24, 2009 
 
While Prime Minister Taro Aso has found it increasingly difficult to 
steer his administration, there is now a rumor in his Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP) that the prime minister would step down after 
the G-20 financial summit slated for April 2 in London as his swan 
song. The idea is that the House of Representatives would be 
dissolved in April for a general election in May, after the LDP 
elects its new president. Meanwhile, persons close to Aso are 
seeking to constrain a drive to unseat him, hinting at the 
possibility of the prime minister shuffling his cabinet after the 
fiscal 2009 budget and related bills are enacted. The political 
situation will likely become increasingly chaotic. 
 
Regardless of Aso's intention, speculations have begun going around 
in the LDP. One speculation is that Aso would resign as prime 
minister after attending the financial summit. 
 
Regarding the timing of Lower House dissolution, LDP members had 
believed that there were only two options -- one being May and the 
other being September when the terms of the Lower House members 
expire. However, immediately after Shoichi Nakagawa resigned as 
finance minister, the dominant view was that there was no other 
choice but to wait until the term of the Lower House runs out. 
 
However, with the Democratic Party of Japan's decision to approve 
the passage of the fiscal 2009 budget and related bills in the Lower 
House within February, it is now certain that the budget will be 
enacted at the end of March and the related bulls by late April. 
 
If the ruling coalition accomplishes its minimum job, which means 
the passage of the budget and related bills; it will be able to 
break the spell of supporting the Aso administration. According to 
the political calendar, the April 2 financial summit has been set 
for Aso to as his last job. 
 
Appearing on a commercial television program on Feb. 21 in Fukuoka 
 
TOKYO 00000419  002 OF 006 
 
 
Prefecture, Taku Yamasaki, former LDP vice president, said: "I think 
it is good that the Lower House will be dissolved in April and a 
snap election will be called in May." A senior LDP member also said: 
"The Lower House may be dissolved in April." 
 
Amid the prevailing view in the party that the LDP won't be able to 
fight the election under Aso's leadership, the May election means 
that many LDP members are now envisaging Aso's early departure from 
office. 
 
An awareness of the situation that it is difficult to delay Lower 
House dissolution until the summer is spreading in the LDP, with 
Senior Deputy Secretary General Nobuteru Ishihara saying: "When the 
situation becomes confused, we should ask for the people's vote of 
confidence." 
 
Referring in a speech to the timing of Lower House dissolution, LDP 
Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Takamori Oshima said on Feb. 21: "I 
want the prime minister to attend the financial summit, no matter 
what happens. After that, it's up to the prime minister's decision." 
 
 
In an attempt to contain calls for unseating him, Aso has launched 
looking into compiling a supplementary budget for the fiscal 2009 
budget, with the passage of the budget in mind. The extra budget 
could be compiled by a person other than Aso. 
 
(2) Political parties - part 1: Security issue could spark political 
realignment 
 
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) 
February 24, 2009 
 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro Ozawa during a 
meeting with visiting U.S. Secretary of State Clinton at a Tokyo 
hotel on the evening of Feb. 17 said, "It is important to deal with 
individual problems concerning the issue of realigning U.S. forces 
in Japan, after our two countries discussed their global strategy, 
and reached an agreement." Ozawa was eloquent, though he was 
reportedly reluctant to meet with Clinton. 
 
According to a senior DPJ official, the meeting was held for about 
30 minutes with an interpreter and Ozawa spent 70 PERCENT  of the 
meeting time. Secretary General Hatoyama at a meeting of the "Next 
Cabinet," held the following day, reported, "President Ozawa 
spearheaded the discussions for most of the time. Secretary Clinton 
took the part of the listener." 
 
Ozawa, however, did not touch on any specific issues, such as the 
relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps Futenma Air Station to outside 
Okinawa or abroad, which the DPJ is calling for. Some in the party 
speculated, "He probably unilaterally spoke to avoid Secretary 
Clinton from going deep into the matter." 
 
Behind Ozawa steering clear of touching on the Futenma issue is the 
fact that party members are not monolithic on security issues. 
 
Deputy Chief of Mission Zumwalt of the U.S. Embassy in Japan gave a 
speech at a meeting of the Hatoyama group. Concerning the accord on 
the relocation of marines from Okinawa to Guam, which the Japanese 
foreign minister and the U.S. secretary of state signed on the 17th, 
Clinton made sure to warn: "Implementing the relocation steadily 
 
TOKYO 00000419  003 OF 006 
 
 
will be in the interests of both countries. It would take an awful 
lot time, if the plan is to be reset." 
 
This is because the DPJ is critical of the accord, with Policy 
Council Chairman Naoshima noting, "The government has yet to fulfill 
its accountability for the estimated relocation cost." 
 
In response to strong concern expressed by the U.S., dissatisfaction 
is mounting among conservative lawmakers that the U.S. military base 
issue in Okinawa is supposed to come up first and foremost, if DPJ 
administration comes into existence. And yet, specific discussions 
have hardly been pursued."  DPJ lawmakers have started conferring on 
realistic options concerning the base issue with Lower House member 
Mikio Shimoji, elected from Okinawa No.1 Constituency, on a 
voluntary basis. 
 
The Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) security policy experts in the 
Diet are paying close attention to the DPJ's move, with a person who 
once served in a ministerial post saying: "Even if the DPJ takes the 
reins of government, it would split over the security issue, which 
could pave the way for the realignment of political circles, 
involving some LDP members." 
 
Another issue that will form the axis of the realignment of 
political circles involving the LDP and the DPJ is the consumption 
tax. 
 
Kaoru Yosano is now serving as state minister for economic and 
fiscal policy, minister of finance and state minister for financial 
services in the Aso administration, increasing his presence. 
 
Yosano, who is in favor of raising the consumption tax, champions 
the pro-fiscal reconstruction force, which attaches importance to 
fiscal disciplines. Senior Deputy Policy Research Council Chairman 
Hiroyuki Sonoda, a former New Party Sakigake member, has a channel 
with the DPJ. Some take the view that Sonoda will move for the 
realignment of political circles along with Yosano after the Lower 
House election." 
 
In the meantime, mid-ranking and junior lawmakers, including Upper 
House member Ichita Yamamoto, who are critical of a consumption tax 
hike, have set up a study group this year. Yamamoto is close to 
former State Minister for Administrative Reform Yoshimi Watanabe, 
who has left the LDP. A point has been made that members of the 
study group might aim at realigning political circles along with 
advocates of economic growth, such as former Secretary General 
Hidenao Nakagawa, who is attaching importance to economic growth and 
spending cuts, instead of a tax hike. 
 
DPJ members are also divided over the consumption tax issue. Katsuya 
Okada and Seiji Maehara, when they were serving as president, both 
referred to a hike in the consumption tax. 
 
Maehara during an interview with the Yomiuri Shimbun said, "It is 
unavoidable to implement drastic tax system reform, including a 
review of the consumption tax, in the future. I do not think it is 
possible to reconstruct the nation's finances and economy with the 
reform of spending structure alone." 
 
Ozawa has contained discussion of a consumption tax hike, noting 
there are ample fiscal resources. He is thus giving consideration to 
lawmakers who are cautious about raising the consumption tax. 
 
TOKYO 00000419  004 OF 006 
 
 
 
Amid a change of administration gaining a realistic prospect, a 
certain senior DPJ member is beginning to take this view: "The weak 
point of the DPJ is security and a consumption tax hike, which is 
necessary for social security spending. If the party remains vague 
about these issues, it might split. It may be better to sort out its 
stance through the realignment of political circles." 
 
(3) Asahi attack: Man reported to have ordered the attack protests 
Shukan Shincho 
 
MAINICHI ONLINE (Full) 
11:46, February 24, 2009 
 
The Asahi Shimbun reported in its Feb. 24 morning edition that a 
former U.S. Embassy employee, 54, who had been described in the 
weekly magazine Shukan Shincho's series of articles as the person 
who ordered a 65-year-old man who claimed in the articles to have 
attacked the Asahi Shimbun's Hanshin Bureau in 1987 protested 
Shinchosha, the weekly magazine's publisher, saying: "The contents 
of the articles conflict with facts." 
 
According to the Asahi Shimbun, the former employee sent on Feb. 17 
an e-mail to the company and after revealing his real name in an 
interview, he explained: "In the Shukan Shincho articles, I was set 
up as the person who had ordered the attack." Accompanied by an 
Asahi reporter, he visited Shinchosha in Tokyo's Shinjuku Ward on 
Feb. 23 and sought corrections and an apology, saying: "The notes 
are totally false and the articles contradict facts." Carrying a 
mosaic picture of the former Embassy employee, Shukan Shincho had 
reported that the former employee asked the 65-year-old man to 
attack (the Asahi Shimbun's Hanshin Bureau) by providing him with a 
gun and money. 
 
According to the U.S. Embassy in Japan, the former employee was with 
the Embassy up until April 2008 and that he was working at the U.S. 
Consulate in Fukuoka in 1986, the year he reportedly ordered the 
attack. 
 
(4) TOP HEADLINES 
 
Asahi: 
Welfare ministry predicts 20 PERCENT  decrease in pension benefits 
30 years from now 
 
Mainichi: 
Welfare ministry forecasts ratio of benefits to after-tax salary 
payment to be kept over 50 PERCENT  in fiscal 2038 
 
Yomiuri & Tokyo Shimbun: 
Two Japanese films, including "Okuribito (Departures)," win Oscars 
 
Nikkei: 
Auto, electronics firms to standardize car control software 
 
Sankei: 
Joint survey with FNN: Public support of Aso cabinet plunges to 11.4 
PERCENT 
 
Akahata: 
JCP member Ishii urges government to save high school students who 
cannot pay tuition fees 
 
TOKYO 00000419  005 OF 006 
 
 
 
(5) EDITORIALS 
 
Asahi: 
(1) Outlook for pension financial resources: Future benefit levels 
concerned 
(2) Afghan reconstruction: Japan should demonstrate skills in 
civilian aid 
 
Mainichi: 
(1) Academy Awards: Two Japanese films able to convey Japanese 
culture to world audience 
(2) Let us use government funds to expand domestic demand 
 
Yomiuri: 
(1) ASEAN plus 3 urged to revitalize Asian economy 
(2) Academy Awards: World recognizes Japanese moviemakers' 
abilities 
 
Nikkei: 
(1) Too high yield rates presented in outlook for pension financing 
(2) Oscars awarded to two Japanese films show moviemakers' power 
 
Sankei: 
(1) Japan-U.S. summit: Discuss issue of collective self-defense 
(2) Thoroughly investigate Asahi bombing incident, keeping 
possibility of terrorism in mind 
 
Tokyo Shimbun: 
(1) Make picking two Oscars a departure of Japanese movies 
(2) New Japan-U.S. China era: Japan should go beyond just talking 
about common values 
 
Akahata: 
(1) Irresponsible suggestion by business circles to raise 
consumption tax to 17 PERCENT  to impose heavier burden on people 
 
(6) Prime Minister's schedule, February 23 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
February 24, 2009 
 
10:35 
Met at the Kantei with those who attended the meeting of ambassadors 
to European countries. 
 
11:09 
Met with Vice Foreign Minister Yabunaka, Deputy Foreign Minister 
Sasae, Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau Director General Saiki, and 
North American Affairs Bureau Director General Umemoto, in the 
presence of Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsumoto and Assistant 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi. 
 
11:21 
Met with deputy foreign ministers Sasae and Otabe, Umemoto, METI 
Trade Policy Bureau Director General Okada and others, in the 
presence of Matsumoto. 
 
14:10 
Place a telephone call to ROK President Lee Myung Bak in the 
presence of Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura and his deputy 
Matsumoto. Kawamura stayed on. Afterward met with Japan-ROK joint 
 
TOKYO 00000419  006 OF 006 
 
 
research project Japan chair Masao Okonogi and his Korean 
counterpart in the presence of Kawamura and others. 
 
15:03 
Met with LDP General Council Chairman Sasagawa, followed by advisor 
Yamaguchi. Afterward met with Kawamura. 
 
16:21 
Met with Vietnamese Planning and Investment Minister Vo Hong Phuc. 
 
17:02 
Attended an LDP executive meeting. Senior Deputy Secretary General 
Hayashi stayed on. 
 
17:45 
Met with LDP Election Strategy Council Deputy Chairman Suga, 
followed by Chinese Communist Party's International Department head 
Wang Jiarui in the presence of Chinese Ambassador to Japan Cui 
Tiankai, LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Hori, International 
Bureau chief Mihara and others. 
 
18:38 
Returned to the Kantei. 
 
19:09 
Returned to his official residence. 
 
20:51 
Departed from Haneda Airport for the United States on a government 
special plane. 
 
ZUMWALT