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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 TOKYO 000385 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02/19/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Moves to oust Aso coming into open in LDP (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(2) Okinawa assembly poll: 60 PERCENT  disapprove of Guam pact 
(Ryukyu Shimpo) 
 
(3) Naval hospital construction to start in FY2009 (Ryukyu Shimpo) 
 
(4) Analysis of U.S. Marines Guam relocation agreement by Kunihiko 
Miyake -- Pact designed to maintain deterrence and reduce burdens on 
local communities (Sankei) 
 
(5) Disruption by Sea Shepherd unforgivable: Obstructive activities 
are crime, terrorism, Agriculture Minister Ishiba underscores 
(Suisan Keizai Shimbun) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Moves to oust Aso coming into open in LDP 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 3) (Full) 
February 19, 2009 
 
Junior members of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) yesterday 
started calling for replacing Prime Minister Aso, whose 
administration is now on the verge of collapse. Since Shoichi 
Nakagawa resigned as finance minister, public support rates for the 
cabinet have further nosedived. In what state will he pass his final 
days in office? 
 
Junior members openly demanding Aso's resignation 
 
House of Representatives member Masazumi Gotoda openly called for 
the prime minister's resignation. He told reporters: "(The prime 
minister) should decide by himself on whether to resign. I want him 
to take an objective view about himself and decide to transfer 
political power. It should be senior lawmakers' responsibility to 
entrust the future of the LDP to a younger generation." Gotoda 
called for a generational change, citing such names as Agriculture, 
Forestry and Fisheries Minister Shigeru Ishiba and State Minister in 
Charge of Consumer Affairs Seiko Noda. 
 
Gotoda is close to Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano and Policy Research 
Council Deputy Chairman Hiroyuki Hosoda. In the latest LDP 
presidential race, he supported Yosano. He is in his third term and 
does not belong to any faction. In the LDP, however, many are taking 
the remarks by Gotoda seriously, instead of taking it as just a 
comment by a junior member about a possible resignation of the prime 
minister. 
 
The Prime Minister's Office has become nervous since the Gotoda 
remark popped up prior to the anticipated passage of the fiscal 2009 
budget. Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura assailed: "He should 
be aware that the budget is at a critical juncture." 
 
Cynically, though, the predicted passage of the budget will 
inevitably trigger moves to oust Aso. Former Secretary General 
Hidenao Nakagawa, who has distanced himself from Aso, is making 
preparations to form a new parliamentary group after the fiscal 2009 
budget bill passes the House of Representatives. 
 
 
TOKYO 00000385  002 OF 006 
 
 
A bill related to the fiscal 2008 supplementary budget that would 
finance a controversial cash handout plan is expected to be brought 
back into the Lower House for a revote in late February. The revote 
is also likely to be linked to dumping Aso. 
 
Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi revealed in Moscow on the 
18th his intention to sit out a Lower House session if the ruling 
coalition forces passage of the bill through a revote. Koizumi's 
remarks, following his earlier criticism of the prime minister, are 
to express "No" to the Aso administration. More LDP members may 
begin echoing Koizumi. 
 
In a meeting of the LDP Reform Implementation Taskforce yesterday, 
some participants called for reviewing the party's rules on election 
for the premiership, as Lower House member Masahiko Shibayama said: 
"Conditions for candidacy and other matters should be fully 
discussed." Such calls reflect a desire to bring forward the LDP 
leadership race from September. 
 
The main theme in a meeting of about 10 junior and mid-ranking 
lawmakers last night was who should be Aso's successor, with one 
participant saying: "Unless the party brings in a new prime 
minister, the party will not be able to win the next election." 
 
Aso set to hold on for months 
 
Following Finance Minister Nakagawa's resignation, an aide to the 
prime minister said: "We had already anticipated there would be 
moves to send Prime Minister Aso out of the office. But it will be 
impossible to do so unless the prime minister decides to resign by 
himself. He has no intention to step down." In the ruling camp, as 
well, the dominant view is that the prime minister will not easily 
quit. Aso appears to intend to hold on for months. 
 
Aso agreed with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in their meeting 
the 18th to arrange a visit to Japan by Prime Minister Vladimir 
Putin in May. This agreement shows his strong eagerness to continue 
to take charge of government even after the fiscal 2009 budget 
clears the Diet. 
 
Aides to the prime minister have suggested compiling an additional 
supplementary budget bill after the budget is enacted. This is also 
aimed to contain moves to replace Aso, setting forth the need to 
buoy up the economy as a just cause. 
 
In order to force the prime minister to resign, there will be no 
other means but to adopt a no-confidence motion against the cabinet 
in the Lower House or to invoke a provision that stipulates that the 
party head can be dismissed with support from the majority of LDP 
Diet members and local representatives. Both hurdles are not easy to 
overcome. Given this, so a senior LDP member expressed concern that 
the party might break up before an election is carried out. 
 
Even if Aso remains in the office until the summer, it will become 
impossible for him to continue resisting growing calls for moving up 
the party presidential race because a general election will be held 
in September. 
 
(2) Okinawa assembly poll: 60 PERCENT  disapprove of Guam pact 
 
RYUKYU SHIMPO (Top play) (Full) 
February 19, 2009 
 
TOKYO 00000385  003 OF 006 
 
 
 
The Japanese and U.S. governments have now signed an agreement to 
move U.S. Marines in Okinawa to Guam. In this regard, the Ryukyu 
Shimpo conducted a questionnaire survey of the Okinawa prefectural 
assembly's 47 members, excluding one under medical treatment, on 
their evaluation of the intergovernmental agreement. In the survey, 
they were asked if they could appreciate the Guam relocation pact. 
In response to this question, 28 persons (60 PERCENT ) answered 
"no," with 16 persons (34 PERCENT ) saying "yes." Negative answers 
outnumbered affirmative ones, reflecting the opposition parties' 
majority in the prefectural assembly. However, the ruling and 
opposition parties were almost split in their evaluation. There were 
also negative answers from some of the ruling parties' members. 
 
The survey was conducted on Feb. 17-18, with a questionnaire form 
distributed to the 47 prefectural assembly members. Answers were 
obtained from all of them by yesterday. 
 
In the opposition parties and neutral-standing groups, all of their 
26 members said "no" when asked if they could appreciate the Guam 
relocation pact. In the ruling parties, all of the Liberal 
Democratic Party's 15 members and one of the New Komeito and Kenmin 
Kaigi group's members said "yes." One of the New Komeito and Kenmin 
Kaigi group's members and independent members affiliated with the 
ruling parties said "no." 
 
In the breakdown of reasons for negative answers, there were views 
such as, "It will put taxpayers' money into building U.S. military 
bases," and, "It ignores and bypasses local communities by going 
ahead with the relocation of Futenma airfield within Okinawa 
Prefecture." Meanwhile, most of those affirmative about the Guam 
pact answered that it would alleviate Okinawa's base-hosting 
burden. 
 
The agreement says Japan and the United States will follow their 
roadmap set to implement the realignment of U.S. forces in Japan in 
a package. When asked about this, negative answers came from all of 
the opposition parties' members and from 32 of the New Komeito and 
Kenmin Kaigi group's members and independent members affiliated with 
the ruling parties, with affirmative answers from 15 LDP members. 
 
Concerning the issue of relocating Futenma airfield, a total of 16 
persons (all LDP members plus one of the New Komeito and Kenmin 
Kaigi group's members) said the planned construction site of an 
alternative facility for Futenma airfield should be moved to an 
offshore area. Meanwhile, nine opposition party members insisted 
that Futenma airfield should be moved elsewhere out of Okinawa 
Prefecture or Japan. A total of 15 persons belonging to the 
opposition parties or among the independents affiliated with the 
ruling parties answered that the airfield should not be relocated 
and should be removed. In the New Komeito and Kenmin Kaigi group, 
four persons answered that the airfield should be moved to an 
offshore area or should be moved out of Okinawa Prefecture or Japan. 
Among answers outside the options given, one in the Reform Club 
referred to "Kadena base relocation, etc.," with two in the Social 
Democratic Party and Goken group calling for "removal." 
 
(3) Naval hospital construction to start in FY2009 
 
RYUKYU SHIMPO (Page 1) (Full) 
February 19, 2009 
 
 
TOKYO 00000385  004 OF 006 
 
 
Ginowan-The U.S. military plans to relocate a naval hospital from 
Camp Kuwae (Camp Lester) in the town of Chatan to a Ginowan City 
area of Camp Zukeran (Camp Foster). In this regard, the Okinawa 
Defense Bureau will start the work of constructing the hospital's 
main building in fiscal 2009 after a field survey of cultural 
properties at the construction site, officials revealed yesterday. 
Ginowan Mayor Yoichi Iha is opposed to the hospital's relocation. 
However, the bureau told the Ryukyu Shimpo that it would start 
construction work after an excavation of the hospital's construction 
site and that scaffolding will be set up there to a certain extent. 
 
"It's not appropriate to build a permanent base in a historic area," 
Iha said. "They have decided to move 8,000 Marines (from Okinawa) to 
Guam in the process of realigning U.S. forces in Japan," Iha went 
on, "and local people are saying we should review the SACO (Special 
Action Committee on Okinawa) agreement." He added, "So we cannot 
understand why they've got to build a hospital there." Iha will 
visit the Okinawa Defense Bureau today, and he will come up to Tokyo 
on Feb. 23 and visit the Defense Ministry and the American Embassy 
to request that the construction be suspended. 
 
(4) Analysis of U.S. Marines Guam relocation agreement by Kunihiko 
Miyake -- Pact designed to maintain deterrence and reduce burdens on 
local communities 
 
SANKEI (Page 2) (Abridged slightly) 
February 19, 2009 
 
The Agreement Concerning the Implementation of the Relocation of III 
Marine Expeditionary Force Personnel and Their Dependents from 
Okinawa to Guam was signed on the occasion of U.S. Secretary of 
State Hillary Clinton's first visit to Japan since assuming office. 
The agreement will allow 8,000 U.S. Marines and their families to 
begin moving from Okinawa (to Guam) within several years, at the 
earliest. As a person with a first-hand experience in negotiations 
with the U.S. Forces Japan, which was astoundingly obsessed with 
retaining its vested interests, I felt a surge of emotion as I saw 
the pact inked. 
 
There are many farfetched criticisms of the agreement, such as 
"having gone over the head of affected municipalities" or "an 
immense amount of burden." Some observers think the fact that 
Secretary Clinton visited Japan as her first foreign destination and 
that Prime Minister Taro Aso was invited to the White House as the 
first foreign leader to meet with President Barack Obama is more 
important than the pact itself. The agreement will be extremely 
vital for Japan five years, ten years from now, bringing numerous 
strategic benefits at the same time. 
 
The Japan-U.S. alliance has evolved under the new regional strategic 
environment, while being masochistically criticized as being adrift 
since the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union. I would like 
to examine this point while going over security-related political 
documents released recently. 
 
For instance, the Japan-U.S. Joint Statement released in 2000 by the 
Security Consultative Committee (2+2 Meeting) notes, "It is 
extremely important for China to play a positive and constructive 
role," while referring to "persistent instability and uncertainty." 
The Transformation and Realignment for the Future released in 2005 
specifies that the Japan-U.S. alliance "must evolve to reflect the 
changing security environment" and "need to pay attention to 
 
TOKYO 00000385  005 OF 006 
 
 
modernization of military capabilities in the region." 
 
It is clear that not only North Korea but also China are included in 
such apprehension, though they are not named. The 2+2 Joint 
Statement of 2007 mentions the need to "encourage China to improve 
transparency in its military affairs, and maintain consistency 
between its stated policies and actions." 
 
What about countermeasures? 
 
The U.S.-Japan Roadmap for Realignment Implementation announced in 
2006 notes that the realignment is comprehensive that includes not 
only Marines in Okinawa but also the Army at Zama, a carrier-based 
air wing at Atsugi, the Air Force at Yokota, and missile defense 
(MD), while playing up a plan to maintain deterrence and 
capabilities and reduce burdens on local communities, including 
Okinawa. 
 
The goal of Japan and the United States is to reduce frictions with 
local communities and increase the U.S. military's combat power. 
They certainly do not regard North Korea and China as their enemies. 
The Guam relocation agreement is the new framework's first step for 
Japan to survive along with China against the backdrop of the 
drastically changing strategic environment in the Asia-Pacific 
region of the 21st century. 
 
The agreement offers domestic merits, as well. What is particularly 
noteworthy is a plan for the U.S. military to return its bases south 
of Kadena Air Base. Although large facilities and areas have been 
returned to Japan in the past, lands of this scale have not been 
returned recently. A local person concerned estimates that the 
return of the bases will generate economic benefits worth 870 
billion yen. 
 
Let us consider the matter in business terms. In the agreement, 
Japan promised to pay up to 2.8 billion dollars, or 260 billion yen, 
which is a lot of taxpayer money. At the same time, it is an iron 
rule in the business world to pay a fair price for a valuable good 
or service. Regarding the question of relocating Futenma Air 
Station, a conclusion must be reached after discussing it thoroughly 
in Japan. 
 
In terms of cost-effectiveness, I think the Guam relocation pact is 
quite a bargain internationally and domestically. The problem is 
Diet deliberations on the pact. Needless to say, sharing risks and 
costs is the essence of the Japan-U.S. alliance. The ability to run 
the government of those parties that cannot agree to such an accord 
would be questioned. Japan's future cannot be entrusted to lawmakers 
who use security affairs as a political tool. 
 
Kunihiko Miyake: Entered the Foreign Ministry in 1978 after 
graduating from the University of Tokyo Law Faculty. Left the 
ministry in 2005 after serving in such posts as first secretary at 
the embassy in the U.S., First Middle East Division director, 
Japan-U.S. Security Treaty Division director, minister at the 
embassy in China, and Middle Eastern and African Affairs Bureau 
counselor. Served as the prime minister's official residence liaison 
officer in the Abe cabinet. Currently a Ritsumeikan University 
visiting professor and AOI Group president. Age 55. 
 
(5) Disruption by Sea Shepherd unforgivable: Obstructive activities 
are crime, terrorism, Agriculture Minister Ishiba underscores 
 
TOKYO 00000385  006 OF 006 
 
 
 
Suisan Keizai Shimbun (Full) 
February 12, 2009 
 
Referring to the issue of the anti-whaling group Sea Shepherd's 
obstructive activities, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister 
Shigeru Ishiba during a press conference after a cabinet meeting on 
February 10 noted, "I realize such activities are crimes and acts of 
terrorism. Our country is conducting an investigation in accordance 
with the law. Obstructive activities are unforgivable for any 
reason. We would like to determine how to respond to the matter, 
including the clampdown of such activities." 
 
Ishiba repeated: "Such acts of obstruction are unforgivable for any 
reason. It is only natural for Japan to demand (that the concerned 
country) deals with such activities in accordance with its laws and 
ordinances and protect the lives and properties of the people of our 
nation." 
 
Director General Yamada files complaints with ministers of 
Netherlands, Australia and U.S. on consecutive days 
 
Fisheries Agency Director General Yamada on February 9-10 called to 
the agency the ministers of countries connected with the Sea 
Shepherd and filed a stern complaint against the dangerous act of 
obstruction by the group, requesting them to clamp down on such 
acts. 
 
Yamada on the 9th called the ministers of the Netherlands, with 
which the Steve Irwin used for the obstructive activities is 
registered, Australia, where the ship makes port calls for 
refueling, and the U.S., where the Sea Shepherd's headquarters is 
located. He explained to the Dutch and Australian ministers a series 
of dangerous activities carried out by the Steve Irwin, using video 
images and photos. He then filed a strong complaint, noting, "We 
must call this act a crime." Yamada demanded both ministers 
implement a clampdown on obstructive activities by the Sea Shepherd 
and take measures to prevent or constrain such activities in the 
future. 
 
The ministers who were called to the Fisheries Agency on the 9th 
both replied that they would convey the request to their home 
countries. Dutch Minister Gerald Michels said: "We recognize our 
responsibility as a country with which the ship is registered. The 
Dutch government made contact with the owner of the ship and some 
others after the incident in December last year and called on them 
to stop taking action that threatens maritime safety. We are now 
trying to determine what happened in the incident this time." 
 
Australian Minister Allan McKinnon replied: "The Australian 
government condemns dangerous acts that threaten the safety of human 
lives on the sea. It has called on all sources involved to make sure 
that they undertake peaceful and responsible activities so as not to 
worsen the situation. We will probably investigate the illegal act 
of the Steve Irwin in compliance with our domestic law." 
 
Director General Yamada on the 10th called Minister Counselor Robert 
Cekuta and filed a request. It appears that a similar complaint was 
filed, though the details have not been disclosed. 
 
ZUMWALT