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Viewing cable 09TOKYO358, DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02/17/09

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09TOKYO358 2009-02-17 06:55 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Tokyo
VZCZCXRO3841
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #0358/01 0480655
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 170655Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0827
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/USFJ //J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/CTF 72
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 4812
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 2468
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 6255
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 0294
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 3019
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7767
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 3789
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3752
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 11 TOKYO 000358 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02/17/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Japan-U.S. summit meeting set for Feb. 24; Foreign Minister 
Nakasone, Secretary Clinton agree to strengthening alliance (Tokyo 
Shimbun) 
 
(2) Hillary Clinton also "changes" (Yomiuri) 
 
(3) Prime Minister Aso in dire straits; His administration might 
follow same fate as Mori administration (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(4) Battle over fiscal 2009 budget to reach final stage (Nikkei) 
 
(5) UNSC reform; Japan to aim at permanent seat via 
intergovernmental talks from Feb. 19 (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(6) Editorial: Japan's role in revitalizing Asian economy heavy 
(Nikkei) 
 
(7) Koizumi reforms coming out as source of trouble in the LDP 
(Nikkei) 
 
(8) LDP suffering setbacks in local elections; Defeat of LDP-backed 
candidates likely to affect Aso's strategy of dissolving Lower House 
(Nikkei) 
 
(9) Prime Minister's schedule, February 16 (Nikkei) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Japan-U.S. summit meeting set for Feb. 24; Foreign Minister 
Nakasone, Secretary Clinton agree to strengthening alliance 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (On line evening edition) (Full) 
February 17, 2009 
 
Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone and U.S. Secretary of State 
Clinton met this morning at the Foreign Ministry's Iikura Guest 
House in Tokyo. The two foreign ministers shared the view that the 
Japan-U.S. alliance was indispensable for the peace and stability of 
the Asia-Pacific region. They also agreed to further strengthen the 
alliance relationship. 
 
Regarding a summit meeting between Japan and the U.S., Japan sounded 
out the U.S. on realizing such prior to the G-20 financial summit 
that will take place in London on April 2. 
 
This was the first foreign ministerial meeting to take place since 
the inauguration of the Obama administration. 
 
The Foreign Minister and Secretary of State exchanged views on North 
Korean nuclear development, missile and abduction issues. The two 
affirmed that Japan and the U.S. would closely cooperate and respond 
to these issues while giving priority to the Six-Party Talks. 
Secretary Clinton expressed her resolve to continue to strongly 
support Japan on the abduction issue. 
 
On handling global financial uncertainties, the two agreed on the 
view of Japan and the United States strengthening relations as the 
number one and two economies in the world. Turning to the war on 
terror in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Foreign Minister Nakasone 
proposed that Japan host an international conference to assist 
 
TOKYO 00000358  002 OF 011 
 
 
Pakistan. Secretary Clinton said the U.S. would support it. 
 
In addition, the two confirmed to closely cooperate in tackling the 
issue of reducing greenhouse gases. 
 
At the beginning of the meeting, Foreign Minister Nakasone welcomed 
the Secretary, saying, "We highly appreciate your choosing Japan for 
your first overseas trip and for your expressions placing importance 
on the Japan-U.S. allliance." 
 
(2) Hillary Clinton also "changes" 
 
YOMIURI (Page 7) (Full) 
February 17, 2009 
 
Keiichi Honma, Washington correspondent, and Satoshi Ogawa, Tokyo 
 
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who arrived in Japan 
yesterday, started her career as a human-rights lawyer and later 
became First Lady and then a senator. As she changed her social 
standing, Clinton was consistently proactive in her work efforts but 
also known for her aggressive stances against her opponents. As 
secretary of State, however, she has set forth 'changes' in her 
personal relationships and working style. In Japan as well, she will 
likely show a softer aspect that differs from what her image used to 
be. 
 
"It's important to talk and listen at the same time." So saying, 
Clinton expressed her basic stance while flying to Japan on the 
first leg of her Asia tour. She clarified her intention to listen 
when meeting with her counterparts in four countries, including 
Japan. 
 
Clinton began to take such a low profile when she became secretary 
of State. When she invited former Secretary of State Shultz to the 
State Department on Jan. 30, she humbly sought his advice. On Feb. 
4, she held a town hall meeting with State Department employees. At 
that event, she said, "I have totally forgotten that I have just run 
in a presidential election." This joke softened the tense 
atmosphere. 
 
Clinton was a candidate in last year's presidential election. What 
she said during her campaign was contrasting. 
 
"Shame on you, Obama!" Clinton said in February last year, revealing 
her emotions. She verbally attacked Obama before TV cameras when she 
was vying with him for the party's nomination. One of her former 
aides complained that she was hard on her staff. 
 
One of those close to Clinton attributed her defeat in the 
presidential election to her "emotional" and "coldhearted" image. 
 
One of the major goals of Clinton's foreign policy is to improve the 
feelings of foreign countries toward the United States which soured 
during the former Bush administration. Her overseas trip this time 
is billed as a "listening tour," a U.S. expert on foreign affairs 
noted. This can be called a tactic to change her image as secretary 
of State. 
 
There is also something that remains unchanged. For example, Clinton 
has been making efforts to champion the human rights of women and 
children. Another example is her fashion style, usually a 
 
TOKYO 00000358  003 OF 011 
 
 
combination of primary-color outerwear and black pants. In addition, 
there is an 'alliance' with Bill Clinton, her husband and former 
president. 
 
"Bill is playing the role of a coach for Hillary. He explained the 
points she should consider for her tour of Asian countries this time 
as well. He's like a 'shadow' secretary of state." With this, a 
reporter for a major U.S. newspaper portrayed the couple's 
relationship. 
 
When Clinton was the first lady, she helped her husband pursue such 
policies as reforming the healthcare insurance system. This time, 
however, Bill the husband is helping Hillary the wife. 
 
(3) Prime Minister Aso in dire straits; His administration might 
follow same fate as Mori administration 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Abridged slightly) 
February 17, 2009 
 
Takaharu Watanabe 
 
There has emerged the view in the political community that the 
administration of Prime Minister Taro Aso will share the same fate 
as the administration of former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori. The 
Mori administration was forced to resign (in April 2001), dogged by 
growing complaints in the ruling bloc that lawmakers would not be 
able to win in the upcoming House of Councillors election due to 
Prime Minister Mori's dwindling approval ratings after a series of 
blunders. Will Prime Minister Aso, who is struggling with plummeting 
support rates due to a string of gaffes and now faces a House of 
Representatives election, follow in Mori's footsteps? 
 
Mori became prime minister in April 2004 when his predecessor, Keizo 
Obuchi, passed away after suffering a stroke. Mori made many 
controversial comments such as Japan being a "divine country 
centered on the Emperor" that ruined his support rates. The ruling 
bloc suffered a major setback in the Lower House election in June 
ΒΆ2000. 
 
Mori continued playing golf even after receiving a report on the 
fatal collision in February 2001 between a U.S. nuclear-powered 
submarine and Uwajima Fishery High School's Ehime Maru. His support 
rate eventually tumbled to 6.5 PERCENT . 
 
Aware of a growing sense of crisis over the Upper House election and 
the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in summer, then New Komeito 
Representative Takenori Kanzaki indicated that his party would not 
necessarily oppose submitting a no-confidence motion against Prime 
Minister Mori. Kanzaki's "resignation advice" solidified the trend 
to dump Mori. 
 
On March 10, the embattled Mori proposed carrying out the Liberal 
Democratic Party presidential election ahead of the original 
schedule. It was a de facto announcement of his resignation as LDP 
president before his term of office expired in September. Junichiro 
Koizumi was elected the new LDP president in the election in April, 
and the LDP achieved an overwhelming victory in the Upper House 
election in July owing to the "Koizumi boom." 
 
Support for the Aso administration has been hovering around 10 
PERCENT  due to his inconsistent comments regarding postal 
 
TOKYO 00000358  004 OF 011 
 
 
privatization policy and the cash handout program. The term of the 
Lower House members will expire in September and the Tokyo 
Metropolitan Assembly election will take place this summer -- 
conditions similar to those of the Mori administration. 
 
Unless there are signs of reversing the Aso administration's support 
rates, the ruling bloc is certain to call for his resignation, as 
was the case with the Mori administration. Koizumi, who still has 
strong influence in the LDP, blasted Aso, saying: "An election 
cannot be fought without trust in the prime minister's words." This 
criticism might create a move to unseat Aso. 
 
Not all factors are the same as those of the Mori administration. 
For instance, the last three administrations led by Shinzo Abe, 
Yasuo Fukuda and Taro Aso, respectively, that came after the Koizumi 
administration did not seek a public mandate through Lower House 
elections. Some in the ruling camp think that even if the prime 
minister is replaced, the next leader would not be able to win high 
supports rates and that there is no other option but to fight the 
Lower House election under Prime Minister Aso. 
 
It is unclear if Aso will accept a call to step down, like Mori 
did. 
 
Prime Minister Aso has repeatedly expressed his intention to make a 
decision independently to dissolve the Lower House. A person close 
to Aso also predicted: "The prime minister will not resign no matter 
how low his support rate falls." 
 
(4) Battle over fiscal 2009 budget to reach final stage 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
February 16, 2009 
 
Wrangling over the fiscal 2009 budget bill between the ruling and 
opposition camps will soon reach the final stage. To ensure the 
budget bill will be enacted by the end of this fiscal year, the 
ruling camp intends to take votes on the bill and bills related to 
tax reform in a plenary session of the House of Representatives on 
Feb. 20. But it is still uncertain whether a vote will be taken this 
week as the opposition bloc is calling for delaying the vote. 
Horse-trading will also gain momentum over a bill to finance the 
government's fixed-amount cash handout plan. Former Prime Minister 
Junichiro Koizumi of the Liberal Democratic Party indicated a 
cautious view about the idea of bringing the bill back into the 
Lower House for a revote. 
 
The Lower House Budget Committee will hold a central public hearing 
on the 16th, a precondition for taking a vote, and then intensive 
deliberations on reforming the public service system on the 17th. 
The budget bill is automatically enacted into law 30 days after it 
passes through the Lower House under a constitutional provision, so 
the ruling parties, without regard for resistance from the 
opposition camp, is ready to make preparations to pass the bill 
through the Lower House in mid-February and to enact it within this 
fiscal year. Should the opposition bloc adamantly oppose the bill, 
the voting may be delayed to sometime after Feb. 23. 
 
DPJ Ozawa criticizes additional economic package as "based on 
senseless judgment" 
 
Taking up the government and the ruling camp looking into additional 
 
TOKYO 00000358  005 OF 011 
 
 
economic stimulus measures on the premise of passage of the fiscal 
2009 budget bill, Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro 
Ozawa indicated that the government should cope with the situation 
by reallocating and revising the budget bill. He said in replying to 
questions by reporters in Wakayama City: "That is a very undignified 
and senseless judgment. The government's move is to show its view 
that the current budget will not help revitalize the economy." 
 
(5) UNSC reform; Japan to aim at permanent seat via 
intergovernmental talks from Feb. 19 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Excerpts) 
February 16, 2009 
 
Government-to-government talks on reform of the UN Security Council 
will begin on Feb. 19. The government will aim at a permanent seat 
on the UNSC, which Japan failed to obtain during the administration 
of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. 
 
In July 2005, Japan, Brazil, Germany, and India jointly presented a 
proposal to increase the number of permanent seats on the UNSC from 
the current 15 to 25. But unable to win the support of the vote-rich 
African Union (AU), the proposal was eventually scrapped. 
 
A government source said: "There is a whole lot of difference in the 
amount of information between permanent and non-permanent UNSC 
members. Looking half a century into the future, Japan definitely 
needs a permanent seat." The government is set to aim at 
consensus-building once again in cooperation with India and Brazil. 
 
Some points are more favorable than in 2005. Relations with China, 
which opposed Japan's bid for a permanent seat, have improved to a 
certain extent. With the shift of power from the Republican Party, 
which was seen as slighting the United Nations, to the Democratic 
Party, the United States has begun pursuing a policy course of 
attaching importance to the United Nations. Prime Minister Aso, too, 
grappled with UNSC reform during his tenure as foreign minister. 
 
But Japan cannot be overly optimistic. Even if a consensus is 
reached on an expansion of the framework, reaching an accord on 
specifics, such as the allocation of seats, would be fairly 
difficult. Given the prime minister's plummeting support rates, the 
stage is not set for the Aso administration to earnestly address the 
UNSC reform. 
 
(6) Editorial: Japan's role in revitalizing Asian economy heavy 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
February 17, 2009 
 
The financial crisis that started in the U.S. has brought about a 
major contraction in credit and demand, rapidly exacerbating the 
real economies of Asian countries, which have been using direct 
investment from abroad and exports as driving force for achieving 
growth. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is hoping 
that Japan will display leadership to help revitalize the economy. 
However, some take a severe view that Japan's presence has 
decreased, compared to the time when Asia was hit by a currency 
crisis in 1997. 
 
Even though Japan itself is in a fix, it is still the second largest 
economy in the world, and the largest in Asia. We believe that Japan 
 
TOKYO 00000358  006 OF 011 
 
 
is responsible for leading efforts to address the financial crunch 
in the region and initiate a growth strategy. 
 
Currency swap system should be expanded to multinational framework 
 
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its outlook for the world 
economy issued in late January projected that the economies of 
developing countries in Asia will grow by 5.5 PERCENT . The Chinese 
economy has continued to achieve a high rate of growth. However, the 
IMF now estimates its growth will fall to 6.7 PERCENT . Likewise, it 
projects a fall in the growth of the Indian economy to 5.1 PERCENT 
and the economies of five ASEAN member nations -- Indonesia, 
Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam -- to 2.7 PERCENT . 
 
The situations in South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong, 
countries that are called newly industrializing (NIES), are even 
more serious. The growth of their economies this year is estimated 
to slip to a negative 3.9 PERCENT . This figure is harsher than 
those of leading economies like Japan, the U.S. and Europe, whose 
economies are also expected to suffer contraction. 
 
The Asian economy, which has led the global economy, by and large 
tends to highly rely on exports. In particular, the ratio of exports 
to nominal gross domestic product (GDP) tops 150 PERCENT  in 
Singapore and Hong Kong. As a result of a steep decline in demand 
mainly from the U.S., the largest consumption market, the Asian 
economy has fallen into a negative spiral of sluggish exports 
exacerbating employment and income conditions, giving rise to 
sluggish consumption. 
 
Asian countries, now pressed to change its economic structure, which 
relies on U.S. consumption, are frantic about adopting economic 
stimulus measures to generate domestic demand. The Chinese 
government has released a 4 trillion yuan (roughly 52 trillion yen) 
economic stimulus package, equivalent to 13 PERCENT  of its nominal 
GDP. Singapore has also come up with a cut in the corporate tax. 
Taiwan has distributed consumption vouchers worth about 10,000 yen 
to all citizens with the aim of stimulating personal consumption. 
 
However, it is not an easy job to switch to a domestic demand-led 
structure. Aside from such big countries as China and India, Asian 
countries' economic size is so small that it is difficult for them 
to overcome the ongoing crisis with domestic demand alone. 
 
It is also impossible to wipe away alarm about the financial crisis 
whose bottom is not in sight. Aside from South Korea and some other 
countries, where the value of currencies has plunged, turmoil in the 
financial markets is still limited in other countries, compared with 
the time when the Asian currency crisis occurred. However, it is 
hard to assume what crisis will face those countries and when. The 
reality is all countries are concerned about the future of the 
economy. 
 
The current crisis is a good opportunity for them to strengthen ties 
among themselves. Asian economies are in a bind. Now is the time for 
Japan to play a role of removing anxieties felt by Asia and 
revitalizing its economy. 
 
There is a mountain of challenges to achieve that end. The urgent 
issue for cooperation on the financial front is to prepare for a 
fluid crisis. There is a framework called the Chiang Mai Initiative, 
under which two countries swap their currencies. Talks to implement 
 
TOKYO 00000358  007 OF 011 
 
 
the framework in a flexible manner, by expanding it to a 
multilateral currency swap agreement, are under way. The plan should 
be put into practice immediately. 
 
In order to materialize the plan, expanding a swap framework, 
standardizing conditions for currency swap and consolidating a 
system to mutually monitor economic policies will be unavoidable. It 
is also necessary to revise the existing agreement, which makes 
linkage with IMF loans a principle for foreign currency swap. It 
would be meaningless unless a framework that will function in a 
speedy and effective manner with importance attached to the 
prevention of a crisis is created. 
 
China has successively signed currency swap agreements for a large 
amount with South Korea, Hong Kong and Malaysia since late last 
year. If Japan remains idle, China might seize the initiative. 
 
Expansion of domestic demand first 
 
As a measure to contribute to expanding domestic demand, it is 
necessary to promptly improve assistance for the consolidation of 
infrastructure that uses official development assistance (ODA). 
 
Prime Minister Taro Aso at the recent Davos Conference announced 
Japan's plan to contribute more than 1.5 trillion yen in ODA to 
Asia. Asian countries welcomed the offer. Countries that received 
IMF loans during the currency crisis have been forced to adopt an 
austere fiscal policy. As a result, they are by and large falling 
behind other countries in consolidating their infrastructures. Given 
the size of the economies of such countries, Japan's proposal will 
produce a major effect in stimulating their economies. 
 
It is also important to strengthen ties among Asian countries and 
create inter-region demand. It would be necessary to reinvigorate 
economic activities, by facilitating the signing of bilateral 
economic partnership agreements (EPA) as well as to propose specific 
measures to realize the integration of economies of East Asia as a 
whole with an eye on Japan, China, South Korea, ASEAN, India and 
Australia. 
 
Needless to say, Japan is urged to expand domestic demand. It is 
also imperative for the government and companies to generate 
domestic demand, using every available means, and boost imports from 
Asia. 
 
It is also important to underscore the importance of free trade, by 
sending a wake-up call against a protectionist move at the G-20 
emergency financial summit to be held in April. Protectionism will 
deal a serious blow to the Asian economy, which highly relies on 
trade. 
 
Increasing presence in Asia and displaying leadership for the 
revitalization of the regional economy should eventually contribute 
to Japan achieving sustainable growth. 
 
(7) Koizumi reforms coming out as source of trouble in the LDP 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
February 16, 2009 
 
Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's sharp criticism of Prime 
Minister Taro Aso for his wavering stance over the privatization of 
 
TOKYO 00000358  008 OF 011 
 
 
postal services has caused cracks in the government and the ruling 
camp. The prime minister, cabinet ministers, and senior Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP) members have begun to suggest even reviewing 
other policy challenges other than the postal privatization tackled 
under the Koizumi administration. With Koizumi's appearance on the 
political stage, a conflict over the propriety of structural reforms 
might come up to the surface in the LDP. 
 
"If you mean a departure from the market-forces principle, you are 
right," Aso said in a meeting of the House of Representatives Budget 
Committee on Feb. 5 in replying to a question: "Are you going to bid 
farewell to the reforms of the Koizumi cabinet?" The questioner was 
keeping in mind his earlier remarks on a review of the four-company 
system. 
 
He delivered a policy speech last month, in which Aso said: "With 
only such slogans as 'transfer of authority from the government to 
the private sector' and such ideas as 'change of the big government 
into a small government', it is impossible to show the future course 
of the nation." Aso thus took up Koizumi's buzzwords and stepped 
into revising the reform policy of Koizumi. 
 
Internal Affairs Minister Kunio Hatoyama echoed Aso's call for 
reviewing the four-company system. He criticized Koizumi's reform 
policy, saying: "He considered things based on the market-forces 
principle and excessively carried out unemotional reforms." He also 
denounced Koizumi's so-called triple reform of local government 
finances. Appearing on a Fuji TV program yesterday, Hatoyama said 
that whether to review the structural reforms of Koizumi "naturally 
should be taken up in the next Lower House election campaign." 
 
Several heavyweights of the LDP have also made statements related to 
reforms. The LDP caucus in the House of Councillors Chairman 
Hidehisa Otsuji insisted in a question-and-answer session of the 
Upper House plenary session on the need to abolish the Council on 
Economic and Fiscal Policy and the Council for Regulatory Reform, 
both of which took the initiative in promoting the Koizumi cabinet's 
structural reforms. Former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori said in his 
speech: "If Japan is engaged in structural reform and deregulation 
for many years, its society may go wrong." 
 
Set off by the criticism of the Aso administration by former Prime 
Minister Koizumi, who holds enormous sway over junior party members, 
a policy conflict involving different generations in the party may 
intensify. 
 
Masaaki Taira, a member of the group to realize people-oriented 
politics, composed of first-time-elected Diet members, yesterday 
revealed his intention to work on the party leadership to conduct a 
discussion on the party's policy manifesto, remarking: "It is 
undesirable that party or government leaders, when an unfortunate 
event for them occurs, say it was caused not by them but by Koizumi 
and Heizo Takenaka." 
 
Former Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa, who distances himself 
from the Aso administration, pointed out yesterday: "Some LDP 
members are trying to return the LDP to what it used to be." He 
indicated a plan to form a parliamentary group of pro-reform 
lawmakers ahead of the next Lower House election. The new source of 
trouble over the structural reforms of the Koizumi administration is 
generating new moves. 
 
 
TOKYO 00000358  009 OF 011 
 
 
(8) LDP suffering setbacks in local elections; Defeat of LDP-backed 
candidates likely to affect Aso's strategy of dissolving Lower 
House 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
February 17, 2009 
 
In the wake of the Aso cabinet's slump in the polls, the decline of 
the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is now evident in the 
results of recent local elections. The LDP saw a decrease in its 
Kitakyushu City assembly members in the recent election. The 
incumbent candidate backed by the LDP Yamagata chapter also was 
defeated in the gubernatorial election of Yamagata Prefecture, 
usually a conservative stronghold. The Democratic Party of Japan 
(DPJ), the largest opposition force, taking advantage of the 
situation, intends not to back any candidates supported by the 
ruling parties. The results of confrontation between the ruling and 
opposition parties in local elections will likely affect Prime 
Minister Taro Aso's strategy of fighting the next Lower House 
election. 
 
Mikio Aoki, former chairman of the LDP's caucus in the House of 
Councillors, grumbled to the party's Election Strategy Council 
Chairman Makoto Koga and Economy, Trade and Industry Minister 
Toshihiro Nikai on the night of Feb. 11: "The situations in 
prefectural chapters are terrible. We must support the 
administration by all means, but it is becoming hard to do, isn't 
it?" Hearing Aoki's remarks, the three senior LDP members fell into 
a gloomy mood. The three would only confirm that they would back the 
Aso administration for a while longer 
 
Actually, the LDP has suffered setbacks in recent local elections, 
which are regarded as preludes to the Lower House election that must 
be held by the fall. In the January Yamagata gubernatorial election, 
the LDP-backed candidate was defeated by Mieko Yoshimura, a fresh 
candidate backed by the DPJ. In the Feb. 1 Kitakyushu City assembly 
election, as well, although all DPJ-backed candidates won seats, 
three candidates on the LDP ticket failed to be elected. A local 
supporter of the LDP, complained: "We were defeated because of 
(Prime Minister) Aso." 
 
The impact is crystal clear in municipal elections in which the LDP 
has kept strong organizational support. The candidate recommended by 
the DPJ defeated the incumbent candidate backed by the LDP in the 
Feb. 8 Shirosato town mayor election, Ibaraki Prefecture, where 
conservative power has been strong. Since this was the first time 
for a candidate the DPJ had recommended to win a municipal election 
in the prefecture, senior LDP Election Strategy Council members were 
shocked. 
 
In the Nishitokyo mayoral election held on Feb. 8, as well, the 
incumbent candidate recommended by the DPJ and other opposition 
parties defeated the former city assembly member recommended by the 
LDP. The New Komeito, the LDP's junior coalition partner, let its 
members cast their votes on their own in the Shirosato and 
Nishitokyo elections. A senior LDP member lamented: "The outcomes of 
the elections have symbolized the clear trend of New Komeito 
abandoning the LDP in the local elections." 
 
The LDP has extensively ruled out the possibility that these local 
races will have an impact on national elections, but the party 
executive is panicky about the successive setbacks. The LDP has no 
 
TOKYO 00000358  010 OF 011 
 
 
prospects for boosting its low popularity. It will soon start coming 
up with additional economic stimulus measures with an eye on a 
supplementary budget for the fiscal 2009 budget. Under such 
circumstance, the prevailing view in the ruling camp is that it will 
be difficult for the prime minister to dissolve the Lower House 
until the summer. 
 
Meanwhile, the DPJ is expected to add momentum to the general 
election taking advantage of victories in the local elections. In an 
attempt to slice down the LDP's support organizations, DPJ President 
Ichiro Ozawa has tried to increase the heads of municipalities. At a 
press conference in January in Morioka City, he announced the 
intention to strictly apply the principle of prohibiting supporting 
candidates backed by the LDP and New Komeito. 
 
Following this, the DPJ has decided to field its own candidate in 
the gubernatorial race of Chiba Prefecture in March.  The party 
intends to create a model for confrontation with the ruling camp by 
filing its own candidates also in the Akita gubernatorial and Nagoya 
mayoral elections in April. 
 
(9) Prime Minister's schedule, February 16 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
February 17, 2009 
 
07:32 
Took a walk around his official residence. 
 
10:00 
Met at Kantei with Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura and Deputy Chief 
Cabinet Secretary Matsumoto. Matsumoto remained. 
 
11:37 
Attended LDP Shizuoka prefectural chapter's women's central study 
session. 
 
14:43 
Met at Kantei with New Komeito leader Ota, joined by Kawamura. Met 
later with Vice Foreign Minister Yabunaka and Deputy Foreign 
Minister Sasae. 
 
15:32 
Met with Government's envoy Yachi, Natural Resources and Energy 
Agency Director General Ishida, and Sasae, attended by Matsumoto and 
Assistant Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi. 
 
16:11 
Met with Ambassador to Russia Kono, followed by Okinawa Gov. 
Nakaima. 
 
17:02 
Attended LDP executive meeting. 
 
17:52 
Met at Kantei with Hong Kong's Chief Secretary for Administration 
Zeng Yinquan. 
 
18:27 
Met Finance Minister Nakagawa, Vice Finance Minister Sugimoto, Vice 
Finance Minister for International Affairs Shinohara, International 
Bureau Director General Tamaki, joined by Kawamura. Kawamura 
 
TOKYO 00000358  011 OF 011 
 
 
remained. 
 
19:26 
Dined with Tokyo Stock Exchange President Taizo Nishimuro Nippon 
Steel Honorary Chairman Takashi Imai and Nippon Steel Chairman Akio 
Mitamura and Hiroshi Araki, advisor to Tokyo Electric Power, at 
Japanese restaurant Fukudaya in Kioicho. 
 
20:55 
Met with Agriculture Minister Ishiba and Deputy Chief Cabinet 
Secretary Konoike at Bar Capri in Hotel New Otani. 
 
22:40 
Returned to his official residence. 
 
ZUMWALT