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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 000349 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02/13/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
 (1) Poll on Aso cabinet, political parties (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(2) What decision will Aso make on six options for midterm target to 
cut greenhouse gas emissions? (Asahi) 
 
(3) Editorial: U.S. economic stimulus package leaves concern about 
protectionism (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(4) Reason for Nye not easily accepting post of ambassador to Japan 
(Shukan Bunshun) 
 
(5) Ginowan mayor calls for Futenma helo transfer within 2010 
(Ryukyu Shimpo) 
 
(6) Military drill: Ready for Afghan deployment? (Playboy) 
 
There will be no Daily Summary on February 16 - an American 
holiday. 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Poll on Aso cabinet, political parties 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
February 10, 2009 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage. Parentheses denote the results of the 
last survey conducted Jan. 10-11.) 
 
Q: Do you support the Aso cabinet? 
 
Yes 18.1 (19.2) 
No 70.9 (70.2) 
Don't know (D/K) + no answer (N/A) 11.0 (10.6) 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "yes" to the previous question) 
What's the primary reason for your approval of the Aso cabinet? Pick 
only one from among those listed below. 
 
The prime minister is trustworthy 13.9 (13.6) 
Because it's a coalition cabinet of the Liberal Democratic Party and 
the New Komeito 7.1 (12.6) 
The prime minister has leadership ability 1.9 (2.7) 
Something can be expected of its economic policies 8.4 (10.1) 
Something can be expected of its foreign policies 4.7 (3.7) 
Something can be expected of its political reforms 1.4 (3.3) 
Something can be expected of its tax reforms 1.9 (3.6) 
Something can be expected of its administrative reforms 4.2 (---) 
There's no other appropriate person (for prime minister) 51.4 
(45.8) 
Other answers (O/A) 2.6 (3.0) 
D/K+N/A 2.5 (1.6) 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "no" to the first question) What's 
the primary reason for your disapproval of the Aso cabinet? Pick 
only one from among those listed below. 
 
The prime minister is untrustworthy 16.5 (18.2) 
Because it's a coalition cabinet of the Liberal Democratic Party and 
 
TOKYO 00000349  002 OF 009 
 
 
the New Komeito 4.2 (4.7) 
The prime minister lacks leadership ability 25.8 (22.6) 
Nothing can be expected of its economic policies 28.3 (28.8) 
Nothing can be expected of its foreign policies 1.0 (0.9) 
Nothing can be expected of its political reforms 7.8 (8.6) 
Nothing can be expected of its tax reforms 1.8 (2.4) 
Nothing can be expected of its administrative reforms 6.0 (6.5) 
Don't like the prime minister's personal character 6.4 (5.6) 
O/A 0.5 (0.5) 
D/K+N/A 1.7 (1.2) 
 
Q: The government plans to hand out cash benefits to individual 
households as an economic stimulus measure. How will you spend the 
money? Pick only one. 
 
Use the money for living 49.6 
Use the money for pleasures or expensive items 20.6 
Save the money 20.5 
Won't receive the money 5.2 
O/A 0.9 
D/K+N/A 3.2 
 
Q: Prime Minister Taro Aso has clarified a plan to legislate 
necessary measures by the end of fiscal 2011 to raise the 
consumption tax rate after seeing the economic situation. Do you 
appreciate this plan? 
 
Yes 26.5 
No 68.5 
D/K+N/A 5.0 
 
Q: Do you look forward to Prime Minister Aso's economic policy 
measures for an economic turnaround? 
 
Yes 19.4 
No 77.0 
D/K+N/A 3.6 
 
Q: What do you think the government should prioritize among the 
following economic measures? Pick only one. 
 
Public spending on public works projects, etc. 11.4 
Tax break 15.1 
Job security 48.0 
Regulatory reform, deregulation 5.2 
Priority investment in prospective industries 12.5 
O/A 1.9 
D/K+N/A 5.9 
 
Q: Postal services have now been separated into four different 
companies for mail collection and delivery, over-the-counter 
services, postal savings, and postal insurance business in 
accordance with postal privatization decided when the Koizumi 
cabinet was in office. Prime Minister Aso has clarified his 
intention to review their four-way business management. Do you 
appreciate it? 
 
Yes 34.7 
No 52.1 
D/K+N/A 13.2 
 
Q: The House of Representatives' current term is up until September 
 
TOKYO 00000349  003 OF 009 
 
 
this year. When would you like the House of Representatives to be 
dissolved for a general election? 
 
Right away 26.3 (33.7) 
Around April after the budget for fiscal 2009 is approved in the 
Diet 36.0 (32.7) 
Around June when the ordinary Diet session ends 14.2 (12.5) 
Wait until the current term expires in September without dissolving 
the Diet 16.3 (15.1) 
D/K+N/A 7.2 (6.0) 
 
Q: Would you like the present LDP-led coalition government to 
continue, or would you otherwise like it to be replaced with a 
DPJ-led coalition government? 
 
LDP-led coalition government 25.9 (30.5) 
DPJ-led coalition government 55.3 (51.4) 
D/K+N/A 18.8 (18.1) 
 
Q: Which political party are you going to vote for in the next House 
of Representatives election in your proportional representation 
bloc? 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 23.0 (26.3) 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 42.9 (39.7) 
New Komeito (NK) 3.4 (3.1) 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 5.0 (5.9) 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 0.9 (3.1) 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.6 (1.0) 
Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) --- (0.1) 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0.6 (0.2) 
Other political parties, groups --- (---) 
D/K+N/A 23.6 (20.6) 
 
Q: When comparing Prime Minister Taro Aso and DPJ President Ichiro 
Ozawa, which one do you think is more appropriate for prime 
minister? 
 
Taro Aso 23.2 (22.1) 
Ichiro Ozawa 43.8 (46.4) 
D/K+N/A 33.0 (31.5) 
 
Q: Which political party do you support? 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 23.7 (27.5) 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 31.5 (31.1) 
New Komeito (NK) 3.0 (2.2) 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 5.7 (3.6) 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1.1 (2.4) 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.4 (0.4) 
Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) --- (---) 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0.4 (0.2) 
Other political parties, groups --- (---) 
None 33.3 (30.8) 
D/K+N/A 0.9 (1.8) 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted Feb. 7-8 across the 
nation by Kyodo News Service on a computer-aided random digit 
dialing (RDD) basis. Among randomly generated telephone numbers, 
those actually for household use with one or more eligible voters 
totaled 1,477. Answers were obtained from 1,022 persons. 
 
 
TOKYO 00000349  004 OF 009 
 
 
(2) What decision will Aso make on six options for midterm target to 
cut greenhouse gas emissions? 
 
ASAHI (Page 5) (Full) 
February 13, 2009 
 
A government panel on global warming, chaired by Toyota Motor Corp. 
Advisor Hiroshi Okuda, yesterday released six options it selected 
for a 2020 midterm target to reduce the nation's greenhouse gas 
emissions by 2020. The six proposals span a wide range, from a cut 
of 25 PERCENT  to an increase of 7 PERCENT  from 1990 levels. Prime 
Minister Aso intends to select one of the six options by June. 
 
Difficult to pursue economic growth and environmental protection 
simultaneously 
 
Of the six options, plans for an increase of 6 PERCENT  and a cut of 
4 PERCENT  are based on the Ministry of Economy, Trade and 
Industry's (METI) outlook for long-term energy supply and demand. 
The 4 PERCENT  reduction plan to be attained by maximizing the use 
of state-of-the-art technology was included in a package of measures 
to stem global warming released last June by former Prime Minister 
Fukuda. 
 
The remaining four options - a target between a 2 PERCENT  cut and a 
7 PERCENT  increase, a 1-12 PERCENT  cut, a 16-17 PERCENT  cut, and 
a 25 PERCENT  reduction - are all based on numerical figures 
discussed in negotiations ahead of the 15th session of the 
Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate 
Change (COP15) in December, in which a post-Kyoto mechanism beyond 
2012 will be adopted. 
 
Out of the four options, the 1-12 PERCENT  and 16-17 PERCENT  cut 
plans are regarded as very likely. These two options are based on 
the premise that Japan will slash its emissions by 25 PERCENT , the 
lowest level under a scenario being discussed in international 
negotiations that mandates industrialized countries to cut emissions 
25-40 PERCENT , and that the cost needed to reduce emissions will be 
shared equally among the industrialized countries. Under the 1-12 
PERCENT  reduction option by spending the same amount of money to 
cut each ton of emissions, the European Union (EU) and the U.S. 
would be required to cut emissions by 17-28 PERCENT , but since 
Japan has attained the highest level of energy efficiency in the 
world, its reduction percentage would be lower. 
 
The variation in the targets reflects a wide disparity between such 
eco-conscious advocates as the Environment Ministry, which gives 
priority to efforts for containing global warming, and those placing 
emphasis on economic growth, like METI, which wants to minimize the 
adverse effect of emissions cuts on the economy. If Japan comes up 
with an ambitious target, the domestic economy will inevitably 
affected negatively, while a lower target will inevitably incur 
international criticism. 
 
A government source said: "It is difficult to attain economic growth 
and international contributions simultaneously. There will be no 
option but a political decision." Prime Minister Aso is expected to 
make a decision in the end. 
 
Eagerness, leadership being questioned 
 
In a meeting of the expert panel on global warming held yesterday, 
 
TOKYO 00000349  005 OF 009 
 
 
Prime Minister Aso emphasized: "It is important to set a goal that 
is feasible and acceptable for the people. I have no intention to 
present a scientifically groundless one. I want to set a feasible 
target." 
 
Aso, who is exploring an appropriate timing for dissolving the House 
of Representatives, needs to raise public support for his cabinet, 
which has fallen below 20 PERCENT . Given this he has given priority 
to economic stimulus measures over protecting the environment. A 
cabinet minister said: "The prime minister probably cannot afford to 
tackle global warming." 
 
Many observers see Aso, who used to be a businessman, has worked out 
environment measures while giving consideration to their impact on 
business. A government official said: "His views tend to favor 
companies. He is not as eager as former Prime Minister Fukuda 
(toward the global warming issue)." 
 
The gap between METI and the Environment Ministry has yet to be 
bridged. On the Japanese version of Green New Deal, as well, the 
Environment Ministry disclosed the plan, while METI was coordinating 
views with various government agencies as told by Aso. 
 
International negotiations on measures to combat global warming, in 
which the complicated interests of countries are involved, are a 
"complicated, multinational equation," said a government source. 
Questions are being raised about whether the prime minister, who has 
lost his grip on power, would be able to demonstrate his leadership. 
 
 
(3) Editorial: U.S. economic stimulus package leaves concern about 
protectionism 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 5) (Full) 
February 12, 2009 
 
The two pillars that will prop up the U.S. economy have been shaped. 
The economic stimulus bill has cleared the Senate. The government 
has released a financial stabilization package. This is a step 
forward. However, the Buy American clause, which mandates the 
procurement of U.S.-made goods for public works should be revised. 
 
The current economic recession is so serious that President Obama in 
his first press conference after being sworn in called on Congress 
to pass the bill, noting, "This crisis is no ordinary economic 
recession. It is the worst economic crisis since the Great 
Depression." 
 
The Senate approved the 838-billion-dollar (approximately 76 
trillion yen) economic stimulus bill, after amending some portions 
of the bill adopted by the House of Representatives. As such, the 
work to integrate proposals made by both the House of 
Representatives and the Senate has started at the Joint Conference. 
 
Delay in the implementation of measures will have an adverse effect 
not only on the U.S. but also on the world economy. We hope both the 
House of Representatives and the Senate will undergo coordination so 
that the bill will be promptly passed into law with the president's 
signature. 
 
The stimulus bill and the government's financial stabilization 
package will not function without either of the two. That is not 
 
TOKYO 00000349  006 OF 009 
 
 
only because the economy has cooled off but also because financial 
institutions are moribund, strapped with a huge amount of 
non-performing loans. It is necessary for the government to write 
off bad loans, while stimulating investment and consumption through 
tax cuts and fiscal spending. 
 
In that regard, the financial stabilization package is somewhat 
insubstantial. It includes a framework for the government and the 
private sector to jointly purchase up to 1 trillion dollars (roughly 
90 trillion yen) of non-performing loans. However, details regarding 
how to purchase such loans have been left up to future 
consideration. 
 
On negate reaction to ambiguity, the U.S. stock market was inundated 
with sell orders, depressing stock prices. We want to see the U.S. 
government boil down the package, including the total amount of bad 
loans to be purchased. 
 
The Senate has cut expenditures for repairing school buildings and 
subsidies to various states incorporated in the bill adopted by the 
House of Representatives, while expanding an income tax cut and a 
tax cut for home buyers in response to demand by the Republican 
Party. As a result, the ratio of tax cuts to fiscal spending in the 
package has come to 3:2. 
 
The Democratic Party is attaching importance to increasing spending, 
but the Republican Party is giving priority to tax breaks. This 
balance between tax cuts and increased spending could be of some 
help when considering Japan's economic policy. 
 
What we cannot overlook is that the Buy American clause has been 
left intact in the Senate proposal as well. The Senate has modified 
the House of Representatives' proposal, adopting the words that the 
clause would be applied in the form of respecting international 
agreements. Even so, China, India, Brazil and Russia will be treated 
in a disadvantageous manner. 
 
Protectionism, under which preferential treatment is given to 
domestic products, could bring about a chain of retaliatory 
measures, once it is adopted. This is the phase where President 
Obama's leadership will be brought into question. Participants in 
the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from the 
Group of Seven nations (G-7) to be held shortly should articulate 
their opposition. 
 
(4) Reason for Nye not easily accepting post of ambassador to Japan 
 
SHUKAN BUNSHUN (Page 51) (Full) 
February 19, 2009 
 
The Asahi Shimbun reported on Feb. 8 that "the United States has 
decided" informally to appoint Harvard University Prof. Joseph Nye 
as ambassador to Japan. However, the White House has yet to announce 
anything about it, even though one month has passed. 
 
"If the White House has really internally decided, it would have 
been formally announced in a few days," said Western informed 
source. Therefore, there must have been some kind of unusual 
change. 
 
The informed source continued: 
 
 
TOKYO 00000349  007 OF 009 
 
 
"It's safe to say that President Barack Obama singled Nye out for 
the ambassadorial post in Japan. But Nye is hesitating to accept the 
offer because Nye's first choice is to be ambassador to India." 
 
Nye has a strong interest in the nuclear proliferation issue. 
 
The informed source remarked: 
 
"Since Iran has nuclear-weapons development program, there is 
concern that Arab countries, too, will want to possess nuclear 
weapons. But the countries over which tensions are highest are India 
and Pakistan, both of which possess nuclear weapons. Al-Qaeda and 
the Taliban have concentrated their activities in Afghanistan and 
Pakistan. It is said that one of Al-Qaeda's targets is Pakistan's 
nuclear weapons. India suspects that Pakistan's secret police were 
involved in last year's terrorist attack in Mumbai, so it might 
retaliate against Pakistan. The region is in a dangerous situation, 
and Nye wants to demonstrate his capabilities in India." 
 
A Japanese foreign policy specialist said: 
 
"He probably thinks that the post of ambassador to Japan would be 
uninteresting. That is because Japan does nothing in terms of 
diplomacy. Although Japan puts policy pressure on America, arguing 
that the issue of North Korea's abductions of Japanese citizens is 
more important than the nuclear issue, it has never come up with its 
own policy or strategy to resolve that issue. Japan simply entrusted 
the abduction issue to (former) Assistant Secretary of State 
Christopher Hill." 
 
The informed source said: "According to one of Nye's acquaintances, 
he is finding it hard to give up his position at Harvard University. 
He is agonizing over which to choose: Tokyo, Delhi, or Boston." 
 
Reportedly the ambassadorial appointments are usually decided in 
June. 
 
A diplomatic journalist said: 
 
"The appointments of Mondale and Foley were decided in July. It was 
exceptional that Ambassador Schieffer was appointed (on Jan. 21) a 
day after the presidential inauguration. This was because Schieffer 
was a partner with President Bush as owners of a Major League 
baseball club." 
 
If Nye becomes the U.S. ambassador to Japan, he will be an "academic 
ambassador" following Ambassador Reischauer. Which city will Nye 
choose? 
 
(5) Ginowan mayor calls for Futenma helo transfer within 2010 
 
RYUKYU SHIMPO (Page 2) (Full) 
February 13, 2009 
 
GINOWAN-Okinawa Prefecture's Ginowan Mayor Yoichi Iha, meeting the 
press yesterday, announced a third action program for the return of 
Futenma airfield. Iha stated, "We will ask the Japanese and U.S. 
governments to relocate the Futenma-based helicopters to Guam within 
2010." With this, the mayor indicated his intention to remove the 
danger of Futenma airfield with those choppers being relocated early 
for the airfield's de facto closure. The mayor also clarified a plan 
to visit the United States in July to ask the Obama administration 
 
TOKYO 00000349  008 OF 009 
 
 
for a solution to the Futenma issue. 
 
When Foreign Minister Nakasone visited Okinawa Prefecture on Feb. 1, 
Iha asked Nakasone for the first time to relocate the Futenma-based 
heliborne troops. Iha stated: "The United States has earmarked the 
cost of Guam relocation in its budget for fiscal 2009, and it's 
clear that most of the Marines at Futenma will be moved down to 
Guam. I will work on the Japanese and U.S. governments to have 
Futenma airfield closed down and returned earlier." Ginowan City 
will earmark about 5.8 million yen in its budget for the new fiscal 
year for the mayor's visit to the United States. 
 
The third action program follows the first and second ones that 
aimed for the return of Futenma airfield by 2008. The action program 
this time notes that Futenma airfield has been violating safety 
standards and has defects in its establishment per se as recognized 
in a court ruling on a lawsuit instituted by local residents against 
the roar of Futenma-based aircraft. It also incorporate plans to 
file a complaint with an international organization or judicature 
from the perspective of human rights. 
 
(6) Military drill: Ready for Afghan deployment? 
 
PLAYBOY (Full) 
February 23, 2009 issue 
 
Light snow was falling over the Ground Self-Defense Force's 
Oyanohara range at the foot of Mt. Aso, where the U.S. Army and the 
GSDF were conducting joint training exercises, codenamed "Orient 
Shield 2009." The drill had the participation of about 300 troops 
from the U.S. Army's 256th Infantry Brigade in Louisiana and about 
700 troops from the 42nd Infantry Regiment under the GSDF's 8th 
Division in Kumamoto. 
 
About 60 PERCENT  of the American soldiers had already experienced 
deployment to Iraq or Afghanistan. How did the GSDF look like in the 
eyes of those tough guys? 
 
"The purpose of our training exercises here this time is to learn 
from each other's knowledge of tactics and weapons and to 
familiarize ourselves with the differences," said Lt. Col. William 
Rachal, who commanded the American soldiers in the training 
exercises. "If we do so," Lt. Col. Rachal went on, "we would be on 
the same mission someday." The lieutenant colonel was surprised to 
see the "orderliness" and "high skills" of those GSDF members, he 
said. 
 
Lt. Col. Rachal talked about "the same mission." Does this mean the 
joint training exercises were conducted with Afghan deployment in 
mind? "That's for the United States government and the Japanese 
government to decide," he said, "and that's a political issue." He 
added, "We're in the military, so we just follow orders." 
 
At any rate, there were tanks, antitank firearms, and trench 
mortars. Using those weapons, their joint military training drills 
were wide-ranging from urban combats to emergency medical support. 
Such drills were undoubtedly for actual warfare. The Japanese and 
American soldiers were also in man-to-man sniper training, which is 
an indispensable skill in Afghanistan, which has many valleys. 
 
As a matter of fact, the Obama administration, which is focusing on 
Afghanistan, is highly likely to request Japan in the near future to 
 
TOKYO 00000349  009 OF 009 
 
 
send out its troops to Afghanistan. Forewarned is forearmed... What 
the GSDF acquired from this military drill should not be small at 
all. 
 
ZUMWALT