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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 TOKYO 000302 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 2 02/09/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(9) High barriers to clear before dissolving Lower House after 
passage of fiscal 2009 budget -- No happy idea for sluggish public 
support ratings, economic recession: Prime minister wants to avoid 
election after current term for Lower House members; Move to oust 
Aso likely to occur, if Lower House dissolution is delayed (Nikkei) 
 
 
(10) Blue-ribbon panel calls for using ODA for public-private 
cooperation in investment (Nikkei) 
 
(11) LDP considering non-interest-bearing government bond plan as 
showcase for manifesto (Nikkei) 
 
(12) Coordination underway to appoint Ambassador to France Iimura as 
government delegate for Middle Eastern issues (Mainichi) 
 
(13) Government's written reply to note: "Details have not been 
grasped" about pirates off Somalia (Mainichi) 
 
(14) Defense Minister Hamada confirms anti-piracy cooperation with 
Britain (Nikkei) 
 
(15) France, Czech cold-shoulders Japan (Yomiuri) 
 
(16) PACOM commander: "More funds needed to transfer U.S. Marines in 
Okinawa to Guam (Akahata) 
 
(17) U.S. force realignment: Futenma relocation issue may rekindle 
(Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(18) Noise at Kadena increased; Burden not decreased by training 
relocation (Akahata) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(9) High barriers to clear before dissolving Lower House after 
passage of fiscal 2009 budget -- No happy idea for sluggish public 
support ratings, economic recession: Prime minister wants to avoid 
election after current term for Lower House members; Move to oust 
Aso likely to occur, if Lower House dissolution is delayed 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Abridged slightly) 
February 8, 2009 
 
With the start of full-fledged deliberations on the fiscal 2009 
budget, moves to search for dissolution of the Lower House after its 
passage have emerged in the government and the ruling camp. Prime 
Minister Taro Aso and his aides are looking into compiling a package 
of additional economic stimulus measures and making it a campaign 
issue for the Lower House election. However, there is a slim chance 
of such a package leading to a dramatic recovery of cabinet support 
ratings. If the Diet dissolution is delayed, a move to oust Aso 
could spread. The prime minister will likely be pressed to make a 
decision under a difficult circumstance. 
 
May 24 election rumored in ruling parties 
 
The prime minister recently said to a ruling party executive, "I 
would like to avoid an election following the end of the current 
term for Lower House members as much as possible." This executive 
 
TOKYO 00000302  002 OF 008 
 
 
took it that Aso intends to dissolve the Lower House after passage 
of the fiscal 2009 budget and related bills, if public support 
ratings for the cabinet rise. 
 
There is a rumor going around in the ruling parties that the 
election will be set for May 24. Mikio Aoki, former head of the 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) caucus in the Upper House, said, 
"There is no guarantee that delaying Lower House dissolution will 
work to the ruling parties' advantage." The ruling camp's plan is 
that they will compile a large-scale package of additional stimulus 
measures as soon as they manage to enact budget related bills before 
the Golden Week holiday season in May and make it a campaign issue 
for the upcoming Lower House election. 
 
LDP Diet Affairs Policy Committee Chairman Tadamori Omori, the prime 
minister's brain truster, has pushed for a scenario of dissolving 
the Lower House in the spring. The New Komeito, which wants to leave 
an interval between the next Lower election and the Tokyo 
Metropolitan Assembly election, which is to take place on July 12, 
sees that date as acceptable somehow. The party expects that if 
flat-sum cash handouts start, public ratings for the government and 
the ruing parties will rise. 
 
DPJ deems dissolution likely on April 26 
 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro Ozawa is trying to 
encourage the prime minister to dissolve the Lower House in the 
spring, implying dissolution through talks. Ozawa says that voting 
on April 26 would be possible. In response, the Japanese Trade Union 
Confederation (Rengo), which supports the DPJ, will ready itself for 
the election. 
 
However, the Aso cabinet's approval ratings are now below 20 PERCENT 
. One aide to the prime minister says Aso needs at least 30 PERCENT 
for his cabinet to dissolve the Lower House. The prime minister has 
been making flip-flops as usual to narrow the range of options. 
 
If it is difficult to dissolve the Lower House in the spring, the 
prime minister will switch his policy stance to compiling a fiscal 
2009 extra budget and chalking up a track record of summit diplomacy 
at the G-8 Summit in early July. This is the scenario recommended by 
LDP Election Committee Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga and close aides 
to him. 
 
LDP presidential election likely to be frontloaded, if Lower House 
is to be dissolved in fall 
 
If the Lower House is dissolved right after the G-8 Summit, the 
election will likely be set for Aug. 2. However, since the LDP's 
power base is also visibly shaky in local elections, as can be seen 
in the result of the Yamagata Prefecture gubernatorial election in 
late January, there is a strong view that the Lower House election 
would be called at a time close to the end of the term of the 
current members in September. 
 
The rumor also has it that if that is the case, the LDP presidential 
election slated for September will be frontloaded and a new LDP 
president, after elected prime minister in the Diet, would dissolve 
the Lower House. Some think that replacing the prime minister so 
often will not be able to obtain understanding. Chances are, 
however, if Aso is found to be unable to serve as the key person of 
the election, a move to replace him could gain ground in one sweep. 
 
TOKYO 00000302  003 OF 008 
 
 
 
(10) Blue-ribbon panel calls for using ODA for public-private 
cooperation in investment 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Abridged slightly) 
February 8, 2009 
 
An advisory panel to Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone has produced 
a final report on the modality of effective international 
cooperation through the nation's official development assistance 
(ODA) program. To prevent a decline in private investments in 
developing countries due to the global financial crisis, the report 
calls for the promotion of investments in infrastructure in Asia and 
other regions by actively utilizing what is called the 
public-private partnership formula that combines private-sector 
funds with the ODA. 
 
The blue-ribbon panel on international cooperation, chaired by 
Takushoku University President Toshio Watanabe, will make proposals 
to the foreign minister after its meeting on Feb. 9. 
 
The report specifies the need to earnestly promote cooperation 
between the public and private sectors. As a specific step, the 
report calls for the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), 
the ODA implementation body, to resume its overseas investment 
projects, so that ODA projects would be able to facilitate private 
investments in development countries. To strengthen the Foreign 
Ministry's ODA planning functions, the report also proposes 
expanding the unit formulating development projects for each 
country. The panel also calls for active discussion by a 
cabinet-level overseas economic council established in 2006. 
 
Although the abolition of JICA's investment projects was decided in 
2001, the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and 
Industry have positive views about resuming ODA projects, 
maintaining that developing countries need assistance. The Finance 
Ministry remains opposed to the resumption. 
 
(11) LDP considering non-interest-bearing government bond plan as 
showcase for manifesto 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
February 7, 2009 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmakers are looking into the 
feasibility of issuing non-interest-bearing government bonds to 
lighten the inheritance tax. The idea is motivated by the desire to 
create a showcase item for the party's manifesto for the next Lower 
House election amid the Aso cabinet's suffering from sluggish public 
support ratings. However, it would not be easy to materialize the 
plan. 
 
LDP Election Committee Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga at a preparatory 
meeting to establish a parliamentarian league to consider issuing 
government notes and non-interest-bearing government notes 
enthusiastically noted, "The greatest measure of the century is 
needed for the greatest global recession of the century." The 
envisaged parliamentarian league will boil down merits of and 
problems about issuing such a bond and recommend the plan to Prime 
Minister Taro Aso. 
 
The mechanism of non-interest-bearing government bonds is to remove 
 
TOKYO 00000302  004 OF 008 
 
 
the face value of such bonds from the inheritance tax in return for 
paying no interest. Suga's argument is that issuing such a bond will 
help the effective use of individual financial assets kept at 
households for economic stimulus measures. 
 
Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has initiated the plan. Abe and 
Suga, who have an understanding with Aso, are positive about the 
idea, indicating their desire to contain a possible move to oust 
Aso, expected to emerge after passage of the fiscal 2009 budget, by 
putting up a new economic stimulus package. Abe and Suga have 
already proposed the plan to the prime minister. The prime minister 
appears to have shown interest in the idea. 
 
Some government sources have also shown understanding. State 
Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy Kaoru Yosano at a Budget 
Committee meeting on the 6th said there is a view that 
non-interest-bearing government bonds will lead to the creation of 
effective demand, as dormant financial assets will be used. 
 
However, there are many barriers. One is tax impartiality. Only 4.2 
PERCENT  of all deceased persons were subject to the inheritance tax 
in fiscal 2006. Only a handful of wealthy people will thus benefit 
from such a bond. Some said that if funds procured through the sale 
of such a bond are used for measures for the elderly or the socially 
weak, criticism that the government is giving preferential treatment 
to wealthy people can be avoided, as LDP Upper House member Kotaro 
Tamura said. However, whether the plan can obtain understanding from 
people is unclear. 
 
The idea of issuing non-interest-bearing government bonds has 
repeatedly surfaced in the ruling camp since the late 1990s as a 
measure to dispose of long-term debts held by the former Japan 
National Railways and to shore up the economy after the bursting of 
the asset-inflated bubble economy. However, it has never realized 
due to opposition from the former finance ministry, which was 
concerned about an ensuing drop in tax revenues. One senior official 
of the New Komeito said, "The idea has just been suggested. This has 
yet to be fully discussed." 
 
(12) Coordination underway to appoint Ambassador to France Iimura as 
government delegate for Middle Eastern issues 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
February 7, 2009 
 
The Foreign Ministry has started coordination on a plan to appoint 
Ambassador to France Yutaka Iimura to be the government's delegate 
in charge of issues with the Middle East. Besides former 
Administrative Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi, who now serves 
as the government's delegate for key diplomatic issues in response 
to Prime Minister Taro Aso's intention, there are four government 
delegates respectively in charge of normalization of diplomatic ties 
between Japan and North Korea, U.S. forces in Okinawa, and other 
issues. But the post dealing with issues with the Middle East has 
been vacant. 
 
In 2001, when Iimura was chief of the foreign minister's 
secretariat, he was dismissed in conflict with then Foreign Minister 
Makiko Tanaka. He became ambassador to Indonesia in 2002 and has 
been in his current post since 2006. Given that Ambassador to Russia 
Yasuo Saito has been informally appointed to become ambassador to 
France by the end of this month, attention was being focused on how 
 
TOKYO 00000302  005 OF 008 
 
 
Iimura would be treated. 
 
Government delegates are special officeholders authorized to hold 
negotiations with other countries on behalf of the government. 
 
(13) Government's written reply to note: "Details have not been 
grasped" about pirates off Somalia 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
February 7, 2009 
 
The government decided in a cabinet meeting yesterday to note in its 
written reply that the government has not grasped details about 
pirates off Somalia, Africa. In it, the government takes the 
position that it has learned through reports that pirates are armed 
with automatic rifles and rocket launchers. It also notes that the 
government has not been informed of the details of how they attack. 
House of Representatives member Hideo Hiraoka of the Democratic 
Party of Japan, who asked questions in writing to the government, 
commented: "The government is set to dispatch Maritime Self-Defense 
Force destroyers to Somalia though it knows nothing about pirates. I 
wonder how the government will handle this matter." 
 
(14) Defense Minister Hamada confirms anti-piracy cooperation with 
Britain 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
February 8, 2009 
 
Shigehisa Furuya, Munich 
 
Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada held separate talks with his 
Singaporean counterpart Teo Chee Hean and British counterpart John 
Hutton on Feb. 7 on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. 
As a result, they confirmed a policy course to cooperate in the 
fight against piracy in waters off Somalia, Africa. Hamada also 
discussed reconstruction assistance to Afghanistan with Defense 
Minister Hutton. 
 
Meanwhile, Defense Minister Teo indicated that he would welcome the 
dispatch of destroyers by Japan for an anti-piracy mission. He also 
said: "Singapore is also considering a dispatch to waters off 
Somalia. An opportunity would arise to exchange information." 
Reportedly, there is a possibility that (Japanese) destroyers will 
call at a port in Singapore for replenishment. Hamada is also 
scheduled to have a meeting with Defense Minister Franz Jung of 
Germany. 
 
Hamada was also scheduled to meet with Defense Minister Herve Morin 
of France and defense chief Vlasta Parkanova of the Czech Republic, 
the chair of the European Union, but they were called off at the 
eleventh hour due to the two countries' circumstances. 
 
(15) France, Czech cold-shoulders Japan 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
February 8, 2009 
 
Shozo Nakayama, Munich 
 
Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada planned to meet on Feb. 7 at a 
Munich hotel with Czech Defense Minister Vlasta Parkanova and French 
 
TOKYO 00000302  006 OF 008 
 
 
Defense Minister Herve Morin. However, the planned meetings were 
cancelled at the last minute due to their circumstances. The Czech 
Republic currently takes over the European Union presidency. 
 
According to the Defense Ministry, the Czech side proposed 
postponing the meeting planned for the morning to the afternoon, but 
the meeting was eventually cancelled. Reportedly, the reason for the 
cancellation of the Hamada-Morin meeting, which had been planned for 
noon, was because President Nicolas Sarkozy's speech at the Munich 
Security Conference, which Morin attended, was delayed. A senior 
Defense Ministry official said, "The sudden cancellation of a 
meeting on the sidelines of a multinational conference is not 
unusual." However, some might say that Japan's presence still 
remains small in the security world. 
 
(16) PACOM commander: "More funds needed to transfer U.S. Marines in 
Okinawa to Guam 
 
AKAHATA (Page 2) (Full) 
February 7, 2009 
 
Adm. Timothy Keating, commander of the Pacific Command, indicated in 
an interview with Reuters on Feb. 5 that the transfer of U.S. 
Marines in Okinawa to Guam, initially planned to be completed by 
2014, will likely fall behind schedule and that more funds would be 
needed for the plan. 
 
Keating said: "The schedule for attaining the goal of transferring 
8,000 (U.S. Marines) to Guam has fallen behind schedule. In 
addition, there are not enough funds to immediately carry it out." 
He repeatedly said: "The relocation plan will not be carried out as 
planned, and it will also cost more." 
 
Keating emphasized that there has not been any change so far to the 
relocation plan under the Obama administration. He stated: "I think 
that handling this plan in a more cautious manner over the long run 
will be more beneficial. ... We will neither abandon Japan nor make 
a quick decision to do so. We guarantee this to our friends and 
allies in the region." 
 
Keating did not disclose which side, Japan or the U.S., will 
shoulder this increased cost. 
 
In November 2008, Keating said that the Guam transfer process would 
not be completed in 2014. Later, though, the Department of Defense, 
denying this prediction by Keating emphasized that the process will 
finish by that year. 
 
(17) U.S. force realignment: Futenma relocation issue may rekindle 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Abridged) 
February 8, 2009 
 
Takuji Soka 
 
There are some signs that the planned relocation of the U.S. Marine 
Corps' Futenma Air Station in Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture, to the 
coastal area of Camp Schwab in Nago will rekindle as a political 
issue. The government plans to conclude a new agreement with the 
United States to promote the relocation plan and will ask the Diet 
for its consent during the current session. But Diet deliberations 
may stall due to objections from opposition parties. 
 
TOKYO 00000302  007 OF 008 
 
 
 
Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone visited Okinawa earlier this 
month to hold talks with Governor Hirokazu Nakaima. In the meeting, 
Nakasone sought Nakaima's understanding by telling him Tokyo's plan 
to conclude a new agreement with Washington that will prohibit the 
United States from using some 6 billion dollars of Japan's 
contribution to the relocation of U.S. Marines to Guam for other 
purposes. 
 
In order to complete the relocation by 2014, as was agreed upon with 
the United States, the government needs to obtain by this fall the 
governor's authorization to use the surface of public waters. But 
Nakaima has insisted the relocation site be moved further offshore 
than was agreed upon between the two countries. The fissure between 
the central government and Okinawa has yet to be bridged. 
 
The envisaged agreement is also likely to stir up controversy at the 
Diet. The major opposition Democratic Party of Japan supports the 
Guam relocation plan, but it has raised a question about Japan's 
massive contribution, with Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama saying, 
"Japan's contribution seems too luxurious." 
 
A constitutional provision stipulates the precedence of a decision 
on an international treaty by the House of Representatives in which 
the ruling coalition has a majority. Still, a rejection by the House 
of Councillors would leave damage. 
 
Meanwhile, the U.S. Obama administration intends to realign U.S. 
forces in Japan as planned. 
 
In their telephone discussion earlier this year, Foreign Minister 
Nakasone and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton agreed to 
steadily implement the realignment of U.S. forces. During her Japan 
visit starting on Feb. 16, Clinton is expected to ask Nakasone again 
to implement the plan as scheduled. 
 
The Aso administration is aiming to build relations with the Obama 
administration. Nevertheless, sandwiched between the United States 
and Okinawa, the Aso administration finds itself in a tight spot. 
Some fear angering the United States, with a senior Defense Ministry 
official saying, "U.S. force realignment has constantly been rocked 
by Japan's political circumstances." 
 
Tokyo, Washington agree to specify observance of roadmap in 
agreement 
 
The governments of Japan and the United States have decided to 
specify their observance of the U.S. force realignment roadmap that 
was agreed in 2006 in a new agreement to be concluded on the 
relocation of U.S. Marines from Okinawa to Guam, several government 
sources revealed on Feb. 7. 
 
The agreement will be inked by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 
who is to visit Japan starting on Feb. 16, and Foreign Minister 
Nakasone. The government also plans to accelerate work to relocate 
Futenma Air Station to the coastal area of Camp Schwab. 
 
(18) Noise at Kadena increased; Burden not decreased by training 
relocation 
 
AKAHATA (Top play) (Abridged slightly) 
February 7, 2009 
 
TOKYO 00000302  008 OF 008 
 
 
 
The government has implemented a program to relocate F-15 fighters' 
training from the U.S. Kadena Air Base, located in Kadena Town, to 
elsewhere as a means to reduce the burden on Okinawa. Despite that, 
noise at the base has increased, Japanese Communist Party lawmaker 
Seiken Akamine revealed in a House of Representatives Budget 
Committee session on Feb. 6. 
 
U.S. fighter training has been moved from Okinawa to six 
Self-Defense Force bases starting in March 2007. 
 
According to data formulated by the Kadena Town base affairs 
department and presented by Akamine at the committee meeting, the 
frequencies of noise caused by U.S. military aircraft during the 
periods of F-15 training conducted outside Kadena in fiscal 2008 all 
exceeded the average of fiscal 2006, the year before the program was 
implemented. 
 
Increases in noise are ascribable to the arrival and training of 
many aircrafts from outside Kadena, such as the deployment of 
state-of-the-art F-22 stealth fighters and F-18 attack planes from 
Iwakuni Air Station in Yamaguchi Prefecture. 
 
Akamine also pointed out the planned joint use of Kadena Air Base 
with the Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF), the deployment starting this 
year of F-15 fighters at the SDF's Naha base in Naha City, the 
Ground Self-Defense Force's ongoing training at Camp Hansen in Kin 
Town, and a plan to turn the GSDF First Combined Regiment into a 
brigade. Akamine said: "In reality, the burden has increased rather 
than decreased. The government is strengthening the bases in Okinawa 
and in other prefectures by taking advantage of the people of 
mainland Japan who want to see the burden on Okinawa reduced." 
 
Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada replied: "I take the local 
indication seriously that the burden has not been lessened." Foreign 
Minister Hirofumi Nakasone, too, replied: "I would like to convey 
the actuation situation about alleviating the burden on Okinawa (to 
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who is scheduled to visit 
Japan starting on Feb. 16)." 
 
ZUMWALT