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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 TOKYO 000261 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02/03/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) War on terror in Afghanistan: Reconstruction a key to victory; 
Military might does not guarantee victory (Yomiuri) 
 
(2) Aso now conscious about public support (Asahi) 
 
(3) Japan-U.S. alliance and Ozawa problem (Sankei) 
 
(4) TOP HEADLINES 
 
(5) EDITORIALS 
 
(6) Prime Minister's schedule, February 2 (Nikkei) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) War on terror in Afghanistan: Reconstruction a key to victory; 
Military might does not guarantee victory 
 
YOMIURI (Page 6) (Excerpts) 
February 3, 2009 
 
Afghanistan has resurfaced as a major international security issue 
following the U.S. Obama administration's announcement to put high 
priority on the war on terror in that country. Although the Obama 
administration intends to overwhelm the Taliban in Afghanistan by 
sending more troops to that country, the Taliban's bizarre tactics 
have exposed the limits of armed force. 
 
In an interview with the Yomiuri Shimbun, NATO Supreme Allied 
Commander in Europe John Craddock, who sits at the top of the chain 
of command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), 
said: "It is impossible to achieve a victory by military means 
alone." The commander indicated that sending more troops to 
Afghanistan would not result in the elimination of Taliban 
insurgents in that country. 
 
The commander regards activities by the provincial reconstruction 
teams (PRTs) that can make up for the shortfall of military 
operations as the key to victory. Civilians, including diplomats, 
are organized into small teams or PRTs to improve infrastructure, 
such as power generation, irrigation, transportation, and education 
under the protection of troops stationed in Afghanistan. The 
Japanese government, too, announced in January its intention to send 
personnel to serve on a PRT. 
 
Multinational force pins hope on Japan dispatching transport 
helicopters 
 
A shortage of transport helicopters is a serious problem for foreign 
forces in Afghanistan. 
 
A helicopter pilot of the Dutch force stationed at ISAF Kandahar Air 
Base flew 120 hours in a period of two and a half months -- 
equivalent to a regular workload of 10 months. ISAF is still in 
serious need of transport helicopters. 
 
Helicopters transport troops, arms and ammunition, construction 
materials, food and other supplies. 
 
High demand for transport choppers results from frequent attacks on 
 
TOKYO 00000261  002 OF 008 
 
 
overland transportation by Taliban insurgents and bandits, in 
addition to the precipitous terrain in Afghanistan. According to an 
NATO headquarters source, there is an informal report that some 20 
PERCENT  of transport trucks via Pakistan have been attacked. 
 
Large transport helicopters, Mi-26s, possessed by a Russian air 
transport company are also stationed at Kandahar Air Base. It took a 
lot of effort on the part of ISAF to convince the Afghanistan and 
Russian governments. Having been invaded by Russia in the past, 
Russian military helicopters flying into in Afghanistan involved 
some delicate political problems. There was no other option, 
however. 
 
Last fall, Japan was informally asked by the U.S. government to 
dispatch transport helicopters to Afghanistan. ISAF Urzgan Province 
force command Col. Case Mathijsen (TN: phonetic) said: "We will 
welcome Japan's Chinooks with open arms." 
 
The colonel served as Dutch force command in the southern Iraqi city 
of Samawah in 2004 in which the Dutch force worked closely with 
Japan's Ground Self-Defense Force. Comparing the situation in 
Samawah to that in Afghanistan's southern area, he noted: "In terms 
of terrain and the level of threats, Afghanistan is far more 
difficult (than Iraq)." 
 
(2) Aso now conscious about public support 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Slightly abridged) 
February 3, 2009 
 
In the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Prime Minister Aso used to 
rely on advice by Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima, 
his friend, but he has begun to count on advice from another "aide," 
Election Strategy Council Deputy Chairman Yoshihide Suga. While 
listening to Suga's advice, Aso is becoming sensitive about public 
support of his cabinet. In the New Komeito, Deputy President Junji 
Higashi, who comes from Fukuoka Prefecture, Aso's electoral 
district, and his old friend, has begun to play the role of 
intermediary between the LDP and the New Komeito. 
 
Shift of emphasis to Kuga's strategy 
 
Former State Minister in Charge of Economic and Fiscal Policy Heizo 
Takenaka showed up in a luncheon that Aso attended with business 
leaders after the Davos Conference in Switzerland on Jan. 31. Aso 
places emphasis on fiscal disbursements, while Takenaka stresses the 
need for structural reform. They seem to be as incompatible as oil 
and water, but on Jan. 22, they exchanged views at the Prime 
Minister's Office, surprising Aso's aides. Suga persuaded a 
reluctant Aso to meet Takenaka. 
 
Suga supported Aso in the LDP presidential election last fall, 
though he is not a longtime supporter of him. Aso began to listen to 
his explanation of the circumstances surrounding the next House of 
Representatives election on a regular basis, focusing on his 
expertise of charting strategy. 
 
Suga has placed emphasis, in drawing up a strategy for the Aso 
administration after the fiscal 2009 budget is enacted, on 
recovering popularity ratings. 
 
At Aso's private residence in Kamiyama-cho, Tokyo, on Jan. 3, Suga, 
 
TOKYO 00000261  003 OF 008 
 
 
who was across the table filled with traditional Japanese New Year's 
foods, told Aso: "Let us pour our all energy into measures to buoy 
up the economy in the upcoming regular Diet session. If we manage to 
pass the budget bill successfully, public support of the 
administration will naturally rise. In such a case, the government 
will be able to do anything, including reforming the party or 
dissolving the Lower House." Suga told those around him on another 
occasion: "If the public support rate after the budget passes 
through the Diet is at a 30 PERCENT  level, the government will find 
it possible to dissolve the Lower House anytime." 
 
Aso had assumed the posture of not caring about public support 
ratings. Frequently citing his grandfather, Shigeru Yoshida, whose 
support rates remained low but whose historical evaluation remained 
high, he once said: "A 5 PERCENT  support rate is enough." Based on 
his instinctive dislike of becoming sensitive to public support 
ratings, Aso has proposed raising the consumption tax. 
 
Recently, however, Aso has taken action apparently aimed to boost 
public support. 
 
Prime Minister Aso handed a trophy over to the victorious sumo 
wrester, Asashoryu, at the Kokugikan in Ryogoku on Jan. 25, 
apparently keeping in mind Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's 
handing a trophy to Takanohana, saying, "I was impressed." At that 
time, Aso had criticized Koizumi's political approach as populism. 
Those who know Aso said that the appearance at the Kokugikan of Aso, 
who is not particularly interested in sumo, goes against what he has 
usually said. 
 
Aso also attended the Davos Conference in an attempt to draw public 
attention, but it was also Suga who made arrangements for his Davos 
visit. 
 
Meanwhile, Oshima is moving away from Aso gradually. Aso and Oshima 
both served as deputy secretary general of the opposition LDP and 
jointly mapped out a policy platform in 1993. Since then, they have 
gone along with each other. Oshima voted for Aso in all the four 
party presidential elections in which Aso filed his candidacy, 
beginning with the election in 2001. 
 
Last fall, Aso agreed to accept Suga's view in favor of dissolving 
the Diet when all Lower House members' terms of office expire, 
instead of Oshima's call, echoed by New Komeito Secretary General 
Kazuo Kitagawa, for a general election in November. Attributing the 
further drops in Aso's popularity ratings to the postponement of 
dissolution of the Lower House, Oshima regrettably said: "It could 
not be helped, because he listened to what his friend said." 
 
After accepting Oshamas proposal for putting off submitting the 
second supplementary budget bill in the extraordinary Diet session 
last year, public support of the Aso cabinet plunged further. Oshima 
then advised Aso last year to reorganize his cabinet in order to 
deal with an expected difficult situation as a result of the 
postponement of Diet dissolution, but Aso did not accept his 
advice. 
 
New Komeito Higashi as new go-between 
 
Cited another key point in Aso drawing up a dissolution strategy is 
to maintain good relations with the New Komeito. 
 
 
TOKYO 00000261  004 OF 008 
 
 
At a Chinese restaurant in the Hotel Okura on Dec. 30, Prime 
Minister Aso dined with Junij Azuma. Aso has frequently met with 
Junji Higashi recently. 
 
Encouraged by Azuma, Higashi said: "Where has the Taro Aso who 
mingled with the geeks in Akihabara gone? In dealing with the 
unemployment issue, you should hear opinions directly from employees 
and workers," Aso reportedly replied: "Although we've known each 
other for a long time, I hear this nice advice from you for the 
first time." 
 
Azuma, who cannot be dubbed as an elite in the Soka Gakkai, a 
religious group supporting the New Komeito, began to act as 
intermediary between Aso and the New Komeito when friction appeared 
last fall over the issue of whether to put off dissolving the Diet. 
 
Kitagawa had been expected to act as go-between. But since he failed 
to predict the postponement of the election in November, voices of 
discontent also grew louder in the Soka Gakkai. 
 
The New Komeito can no longer misread the timing for the Lower House 
to be dissolved. Under this situation, the party singled out Higashi 
Azuma as mediator. For Aso, Azuma, familiar to him, was suitable as 
advisor on managing his damaged administration. 
 
Cooperation with Suga of the LDP and Higashi of the New Komeito may 
facilitate mutual understanding between both ruling parties, but 
they have weak political bases in their respective parties. This 
means that the protection effort from moves to drive Aso out of 
office might be undermined. 
 
If public support of the government stays low in the run-up to the 
expiration of all Lower House members' terms of office in September, 
a call for moving up a party presidential election will inevitably 
gain influence in the LDP. But Aso has yet to prepare a scenario to 
raise public support rating and dismiss the nightmare of the prime 
minister pressed to resign before the next Lower House election. 
 
(3) Japan-U.S. alliance and Ozawa problem 
 
SANKEI (Page 13) (Full) 
January 31, 2009 
 
By Keiichiro Nakashizu, deputy chief editorial writer 
 
High government officials of Japan and the United States have 
advocated a policy of strengthening the bilateral alliance as if to 
exchange words of encouragement. 
 
At her confirmation hearing with the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations 
Committee on Jan. 13, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said: "Our 
alliance with Japan is a cornerstone of American policy in Asia, 
essential to maintain peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific 
region." 
 
In his policy speech at the Diet on Jan. 28, Prime Minister Taro 
Aso, too, stated: "I together with President Barack Obama will 
further strengthen our alliance with the United States." 
 
However, neither Clinton nor Aso specifically referred to how they 
would reinforce the bilateral alliance. The reason is because they 
cannot hammer out substantive contents. 
 
TOKYO 00000261  005 OF 008 
 
 
 
Approximately 50,000 troops from 41 countries, including the NATO 
(North Atlantic Treaty Organization) countries, have taken part in 
the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, 
to which the United States is expected to send more troops. Japan, 
however, has yet to decide on whether to dispatch its Self-Defense 
Forces (SDF) personnel. This is the reason for Tokyo and Washington 
to avoid referring to measures for Afghanistan. 
 
It is believed that the sharing of risk is essential for an 
alliance. Japan tries to fend off bearing risk and costs as much as 
possible. 
 
It is difficult for Japan to find 'safe areas,' which is a 
precondition for sending SDF troops to Afghanistan. The government's 
interpretation of the Constitution does not allow (SDF personnel) to 
use weapons 'to eliminate actions to obstruct their operations, 
which is included in the United Nations' weapons-use standards. The 
government's rational reason is that that might become the same as 
the use of weapons prohibited by Article 9 of the Constitution. 
Although the United Nations' policing activities do not fall under 
that category, the government does not accept it. The Japan-U.S. 
alliance has lost substance due to Tokyo's safety-first policy and 
unrealistic interpretation of the Constitution. 
 
However, political incompetence has prevented reviewing the 
safety-first policy and constitutional interpretation. 
 
In his speech delivered on Jan. 14 at the Japan National Press Club, 
then U.S. Ambassador to Japan Thomas Schieffer expressed a strong 
sense of alarm about such a situation. He gave a warning, noting: 
 
"The bilateral alliance should not be used as a tool for a political 
fight (between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Democratic Party 
of Japan). With its political chaos, Japan could be isolated in the 
international community." 
 
The situation appears to be becoming more serious. The political 
turmoil could expand. The reason is that if a DPJ-led coalition 
government is inaugurated, there is a possibility that the 
Japan-U.S. alliance will be changed. 
 
Last November, DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa revealed his view on the 
Japan-U.S. alliance in explaining his party members the reason for 
the failure of his talks with Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda on the 
formation of an LDP-DPJ coalition. He said: 
 
"SDF overseas dispatches for international peace cooperation are 
limited to UN-led activities based on resolutions adopted by the UN 
Security Council or UN General Assembly. Therefore, our operation." 
 
 
Ozawa said that Fukuda had made a commitment to this. Although it 
remains unclear whether it was true or not, Ozawa said: 
 
"In order to establish principles for our country's international 
peace cooperation, drastically shifting our country's unprincipled 
security policy, I judged the (talks with Fukuda) would worthy of 
initiating policy consultations." 
 
However, there are still remaining issues to be hammered out. In the 
case of a contingency involving Taiwan, the UN will not function 
 
TOKYO 00000261  006 OF 008 
 
 
because of China's exercising its veto. Even if U.S. military is 
mobilized, the SDF will not be able to cooperate with them under 
Ozawa's principles. If that is the case, the Japan-U.S. alliance 
will not work. Adversely, Ozawa's way of thinking could force the 
SDF to use weapons. 
 
Ozawa, meanwhile, in a question-and-answer session last October in 
the Lower House, said: "My party will build stronger Japan-U.S. 
relations by forming an equal partnership with Washington." Asked 
about the meaning of an equal partnership, Ozawa responded: "As long 
as Japan follows whatever America says, Japan will not be an ally of 
America." 
 
As if to demonstrate this, Ozawa last year opposed a new special 
agreement on Japan's financial burdens for costs for the U.S. forces 
stationed in Japan. The DPJ's Okinawa vision compiled last summer 
calls for revising the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) 
and relocating the U.S. Marine Corps Futenma Air Station outside the 
prefecture or the country. The vision overturns the conventional 
agreement between Japan and the United States. 
 
When told by the DPJ that it would suspend Japan's refueling mission 
and move to review the SOFA if it took political power, Joseph Nye, 
a former assistant defense secretary, last December in Tokyo said: 
"I will take it as an anti-American government." 
 
However, nobody knows Ozawa's real intention. Because he had said 
before joining the DPJ: "The Japan-U.S. alliance is a lifeline for 
Japan." If the DPJ takes the reins of power, there would be a change 
in Ozawa. The Ozawa problem will bear down on Japan. Both Ozawa and 
Prime Minister Aso should clarify how they will operate the 
Japan-U.S. alliance. 
 
In the government poll on foreign policy conducted last year, 73 
PERCENT  of respondents said that they had friendly feelings toward 
America. The figures prove that many Japanese think that Japan's 
alliance with the United States is significant. Making the 
Japan-U.S. alliance to function will lead to protecting national 
interests and the benefits of the people. 
 
(4) TOP HEADLINES 
 
Asahi: 
MAFF mulls allowing rice producers to opt for output adjustment with 
government subsidy 
 
Mainichi: 
Ratio of accepting pregnant women in emergency at perinatal centers 
across Japan varies 
 
Yomiuri: 
Softbank Mobile eyes fixed-rate wireless data communication service 
via tie-up with Emobile 
 
Nikkei: 
Seven & I in talks with J. Front Retailing on selling Sogo's 
flagship store 
 
Sankei: 
North Korea's preparations for Taepodong launch confirmed by U.S. 
satellites 
 
 
TOKYO 00000261  007 OF 008 
 
 
Tokyo Shimbun: 
Somalia anti-piracy mission: Defense Ministry not to allow MSDF to 
join multinational forces to avoid use of force 
 
Akahata: 
JCP Secretariat Head Ichida calls for policy shift in Upper House 
interpellation 
 
(5) EDITORIALS 
 
Asahi: 
(1) Education essential to prevent drug use 
(2) Chinese economy: Exports no longer the driving force 
 
Mainichi: 
(1) Job offers to graduating students must not be cancelled 
(2) Vocational education must not be left to schools 
 
Yomiuri: 
(1) Government must introduce single number system 
(2) Mt. Asama erupts 
 
Nikkei: 
(1) NHK's 24-hour English news service 
(2) Iraq takes step forward 
 
Sankei: 
(1) National Personnel Authority's resistance to civil servant 
system reform absurd 
(2) Prime minister's Davos speech: Ability to implement policies 
must be demonstrated in support for Asia 
 
Tokyo Shimbun: 
(1) Sumo wrestler Wakakirin fired due to drug use 
(2) Greater efforts for reconciliation and independence must follow 
Iraq election 
 
Akahata: 
(1) Prime Minister Aso fails to accept blame and show remedies in 
Diet interpellations 
 
(6) Prime Minister's schedule, February 2 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
February 3, 2009 
 
07:45 
Took a walk around his official residence. 
 
10:01 
Attended an Upper House plenary session. 
 
12:11 
Met at the Kantei with Election Strategy Council Chairman Koga and 
Deputy Chairman Suga. 
 
13:16 
Returned to the Upper House plenary session. 
 
16:00 
Attended a Lower House plenary session. 
 
 
TOKYO 00000261  008 OF 008 
 
 
16:16 
Met Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Yosano, Assistant Deputy 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Fukuda, and others. Yosano stayed behind. 
 
17:03 
Attended an LDP executive meeting. 
 
17:42 
Met Reform Implementation Office Head Takebe at party headquarters. 
 
18:12 
Met at the Kantei with METI Vice Minister Mochizuki, Economy and 
Industry Policy Bureau Director General Matsunaga, and Natural 
Resources and Energy Agency Director General Ishida. Followed by 
Chief Secretary General Kawamura and Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary 
Uruma. Kawamura stayed behind. 
 
19:37 
Met with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Konoike at a pub in the 
Imperial Hotel. 
 
21:54 
Returned to his official residence. 
 
ZUMWALT