VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTV #0398/01 0491202
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 181202Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0532
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAHQA/HQ USAF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEADWD/DA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/CNO WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI PRIORITY 5022
RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS PRIORITY 1620
RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN PRIORITY 5493
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 5828
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT PRIORITY 5056
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 3538
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 5854
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 2685
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0898
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT PRIORITY 9610
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 7106
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH PRIORITY 2062
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY 6112
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 8147
RUEHJI/AMCONSUL JEDDAH PRIORITY 0940
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM PRIORITY 1425
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/COMSIXTHFLT  PRIORITY

UNCLAS TEL AVIV 000398 
 
STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD 
 
WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM 
NSC FOR NEA STAFF 
 
SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA 
HQ USAF FOR XOXX 
DA WASHDC FOR SASA 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR PA 
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL FOR POLAD/USIA ADVISOR 
COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE FOR PAO/POLAD 
COMSIXTHFLT FOR 019 
 
JERUSALEM ALSO ICD 
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL 
PARIS ALSO FOR POL 
ROME FOR MFO 
 
SIPDIS 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS
 
SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION 
 
-------------------------------- 
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT: 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶1.  U.S.-Israel Relations 
 
¶2.   Mideast 
 
¶3.  Iran 
 
¶4.  Aftermath of Israeli Elections 
 
------------------------- 
Key stories in the media: 
------------------------- 
 
All media reported that PM Ehud Olmert is convening the 
diplomatic-security cabinet today to discuss the release of Gilad 
Shalit in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.  Israel 
Radio reported that the cabinet will not discuss the prisoners 
names.  The media quoted Olmert as saying yesterday that Shalit may 
not be freed during his tenure.  HaQaretz quoted senior IDF and 
defense establishment officials as saying that Israel is mostly to 
blame for the delay in carrying out the Shalit release and truce 
deals.  The media reported that Hamas is opposed to releasing Shalit 
as part of the truce.  Leading media reported that the Shalit family 
warns that this is the last chance to save Gilad.  On the other 
hand, the media reported that the far Right will fight the deal and 
that bereaved families hurt by terrorism are divided over whether to 
carry it out. 
 
The media reported that today President Shimon Peres will begin 
consulting with all the parties on who should be the next prime 
minister, with neither Likud chairman Benjamin Netanyahu nor Kadima 
chief Tzipi Livni having a clear advantage.   The main question is 
whom Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman will recommend. 
HaQaretz quoted sources close to Netanyahu as saying that Lieberman 
will recommend neither of the two candidates.  Should that happen, 
neither would have a majority of 61 Knesset members behind them. 
Maariv quoted Kadima officials as saying that Lieberman is likely to 
recommend a rotational Likud-Kadima government.  The Jerusalem Post 
quoted Likud Knesset Member Reuven Rivlin as saying: QWe canQt 
promise that there wonQt be ultra-Orthodox in the coalition.  If you 
ask me to commit suicide, I wonQt.Q  HaQaretz reported that 
LiebermanQs attitude is infuriating some of his partyQs field 
activists, many of whom are former Likud members. 
 
Yediot reported that, prior to her first visit to Israel early next 
month, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton will attend a 
conference of chiefs of states in Cairo to raise funds for Gaza. 
 
Leading media cited yesterdayQs report in the British daily The 
Daily Telegraph that quoted Western intelligence analysts as saying 
that Israel is assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists as part of a 
covert war against the Islamic Republic's illicit weapons program. 
The British newspaper said that Mossad was rumored to be behind the 
death of Ardeshire Hassanpour, a top nuclear scientist at Iran's 
Isfahan uranium plant, who died in mysterious circumstances, 
allegedly from "gas poisoning" in 2007.  Other recent deaths, say 
analysts, are Israeli "hits" on important figures in the procurement 
and nuclear enrichment process and were intended to deprive Tehran 
of key technical skills at the head of the program. The Daily 
Telegraph also quoted intelligence sources in the U.S. as saying 
that Israel is using sabotage, front companies, and double agents to 
disrupt the regime's weapons project as an alternative to direct 
military action.  Israel has been carrying out similar covert 
activities for about a decade, ever since Iran was first suspected 
of seeking nuclear weapons.  U.S. journalist James Risen wrote 
recently that the CIA and the Mossad have planned together several 
operations to sabotage the Iranian program, including damaging power 
lines to nuclear sites in order to damage computer systems and 
equipment.  The Jerusalem Post citing reports appearing in the 
Russian media yesterday according to which Russia is unlikely to go 
ahead at this time with the sale of state-of-the-art S-300 
anti-aircraft missiles to Iran, in an effort to improve MoscowQs 
ties with the new U.S. administration. 
 
Maariv quoted Amos Gilad, who heads the Defense Ministry's 
political-security bureau, as saying that Olmert behaves as if 
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is in IsraelQs employ and that the 
Prime MinisterQs Office has not performed properly in the matter of 
ShalitQs release. 
 
Yediot and The Jerusalem Post quoted JaneQs Defense Weekly as 
saying, based on recent satellite images, that Syria has 
substantially increased its efforts to develop and produce chemical 
warfare materials for its ground-to-ground missiles. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that yesterday Israeli diplomatic 
officials brushed off plans by Jordanian parliamentarians to file a 
lawsuit against Israel at the International Criminal Court in The 
Hague for alleged war crimes stemming from Operation Cast Lead. 
 
HaQaretz and other media cited a statement issued yesterday by the 
organizers of the Dubai Tennis Championships that Israeli tennis 
star Shahar Peer was denied entry to the UAE in order to ensure her 
personal safety, given the spate of anti-Israeli protests at 
sporting events since the Gaza operation.  The snub brought swift 
denunciations from the WomenQs Tennis Association and warnings that 
it could consider scratching Dubai from its calendar.  The media 
reported that Israeli tennis player Andy RamQs participation in 
another Dubai tournament is also in doubt. 
 
Israel Radio reported that a mortar shell landed in the Negev 
yesterday and that a rocket landed today. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan 
Nasrallah made his first comments this week about the Israeli 
election results, telling his supporters that they should not fear 
the rising power of Yisrael Beiteinu, despite the radical rhetoric 
of its chairman, Avigdor Lieberman. 
 
The Jerusalem Post and other media reported that a new puppet host 
-- a bear named Nassur, appeared Friday on HamasQs Al Aqsa-TV, 
promising to be a jihad fighter and declaring war on the 
QZionists. 
 
The Jerusalem Post and other media quoted IranQs judiciary as saying 
yesterday that seven Iranian members of the BahaQi faith who are 
being held on suspicion of spying for Israel may be indicted by next 
week. 
 
Media named the chemist who allegedly supplied cyanide to 
Palestinians as Miriam Dumfrucht. 
 
The media reported that in the next few weeks Golan Druze will be 
marketing 8,000 tons of apples to Syria through the Israel-Syria 
border. 
 
The media reported that the GOIQs National Employment Service 
predicts that one-tenth of Israelis will be unemployed by the end of 
the year. 
 
-------------------------- 
¶1.  U.S.-Israel Relations: 
-------------------------- 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
Conservative columnist Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror wrote in the 
independent Israel Hayom: QThe panic that some elements are trying 
to sow regarding the future of Israel-U.S. relations under a 
specific prime minister is baseless. 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
"The U.S., after Our Elections" 
 
Conservative columnist Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror wrote in the 
independent Israel Hayom (2/18): QThose warning of horror scenarios 
of American punishment [of Israel] are wrong and misleading.  This 
does not mean that Israel should ignore its relationship with the 
U.S. -Q on the contrary.  Every future prime minister will have to 
take such relations into account, consider the United States 
desires and interests, endeavor to consider its important steps with 
it, and be attentive to its advice Q of course pursuant to IsraelQs 
interests. The conclusion to be drawn from the long experience of 
the relationship with the Americans is that a prime minister who 
will be open and reliable with his U.S. counterparts will be 
welcomed, even if differences arise on various modi operandi.  The 
panic that some elements are trying to sow regarding the future of 
Israel-U.S. relations under a specific prime minister is baseless. 
 
------------ 
¶2.  Mideast: 
------------ 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
The independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized: QIt would be a 
mistake to make the two [following] issues interdependent. 
[However], the next government should find its table cleared of the 
need to deal with the truce and the return of the abducted 
soldier. 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized: QBetween 
Iran's quest for nuclear weapons, the power vacuum in 
E 
Pakistan-Afghanistan, and the need to preserve relative stability in 
Iraq, the [U.S.] administration will, no doubt, want to prioritize 
its Middle East agenda accordingly. 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
¶I.  "A Deal that Must Not Be Missed" 
 
The independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized (2/18): QThe 
outgoing government must complete Operation Cast Lead by formalizing 
relations with the Gaza Strip and bringing back Gilad Shalit. These 
are the two tasks that remain for Olmert, who has thus far failed to 
accomplish them.  It would be a pity if he misses the opportunity 
Israel now has.... [Nevertheless], it is hard to believe that Hamas 
will now ease up on its demands because of concerns about the change 
of government in Jerusalem.  Therefore it would be a mistake to make 
the two issues interdependent.  Israel needs calm in the south just 
as much as Hamas does, to be able to concentrate on the complex 
challenges posed by Iran and the recession.  It must accept the 
reasonable proposal formulated with Egypt's help for a cease-fire in 
return for the renewal of economic activity in Gaza.  In parallel, 
it must agree with Hamas on the number of prisoners to be exchanged 
for Shalit, their identity, and the manner of their release.  The 
next government should find its table cleared of the need to deal 
with the truce and the return of the abducted soldier. 
 
II.  "ShariQa-for-Peace" 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized (2/18): 
QThe decision to trade ShariQa-for-peace appears to reflect a bad 
trend in the Muslim (and Arab) world whereby radicals stick to their 
guns, and moderates capitulate.  Even if the Taliban could be 
satiated with QjustQ Afghanistan and Pakistan, these vast lands 
would become -- even more than they already are Q save havens and 
launching pads against the QinfidelsQ.... U.S. envoy to Pakistan and 
Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke, who is just completing a tour of the 
region, called the Swat deal proof that India, the United States, 
and Pakistan Qall have a common threat now.Q  If only that were 
true.  If only matters were that clear-cut.... Between Iran's quest 
for nuclear weapons, the power vacuum in Pakistan-Afghanistan, and 
the need to preserve relative stability in Iraq, the administration 
will, no doubt, want to prioritize its Middle East agenda 
accordingly. 
--------- 
¶3.  Iran: 
--------- 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
Senior military affairs analyst Reuven Pedatzur wrote in the 
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz: QUnfortunately,  for the time 
being Israeli policy is based on active defense.... Only deterrence 
will prevent Iran from using its nuclear weapons. 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
"ItQs Possible to Live with Iran" 
 
Senior military affairs analyst Reuven Pedatzur wrote in the 
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz (2/18): QOne of the most urgent 
strategic issues the new government will have to deal with is Iran. 
The cabinet will have to choose one of four options for addressing 
the Iranian threat, or a combination thereof: active defense, 
passive defense, attack, and deterrence.  The significance of the 
choice will be seen in the huge budgets that will have to be 
directed to the options chosen.  The choice of one or more of the 
first three options is liable to turn out to be a major strategic 
mistake.  Unfortunately, such a choice has already been made, 
because for the time being Israeli policy is based on active 
defense.... Hopefully the cabinet will be presented with the 
strategic doctrine developed in the United States during the Cold 
War and adopted by the Soviet Union, whereby countries must not rely 
on active defense.  After all, it is enough for two nuclear missiles 
to hit the greater Tel Aviv area for the price to be unbearable. 
[Eventually], what remains is the fourth option, which is 
conditional on the reliability of foreign sources: deterrence. 
There is a need to invest in this, though not a lot.  According to 
foreign sources, Israel has managed to build up a deterrent 
capability, including a second-strike capacity from submarines. 
Only deterrence will prevent Iran from using its nuclear weapons. 
Only the knowledge that Iran's cities will become heaps of rubble if 
a single rocket is launched at Israel will dispel from the minds of 
Iran's leaders the thought of a nuclear strike.  The choice of the 
correct option will not only save a lot of money, it will ensure 
Israel's security. 
----------------------------------- 
¶4.  Aftermath of Israeli Elections: 
----------------------------------- 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
Former Editor-in-Chief David Landau wrote in the independent, 
left-leaning Ha'aretz: QWe voted for [Tzipi Livni] out of strategic 
considerations.  But it seems that this did something for her.  And 
maybe, please God, for us as well. 
 
Liberal columnist Gideon Samet, a former Consul in Philadelphia, 
wrote in the popular, pluralist Maariv: QLivni apparently fears the 
chill of sitting in the opposition.  Furthermore, [a unity 
government] is all that the bad cards that the Israelis dealt last 
week can yield. 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
 "We Have a Leader" 
 
Former Editor-in-Chief David Landau wrote in the independent, 
left-leaning Ha'aretz (2/18): QWhat we are lacking, what we really 
need, is someone who has been blessed with a healthy dose of common 
sense -- the rare commodity that is so often dismissed as 
unimportant.  Someone who understands, really understands, to the 
depths of her being, that our time as a country is running out, and 
that without two states, there will be only one state -- theirs. It 
seems that we have alighted on such a person.  But she is still weak 
and fragile, surrounded by shallow, cynical politicians who are not 
fit partners for her, given the importance of the moment and the 
scale of the dangers.  We voted for her out of strategic 
considerations.  But it seems that this did something for her.  And 
maybe, please God, for us as well. 
 
II.  QThis Will End in Unity 
 
Liberal columnist Gideon Samet, a former Consul in Philadelphia, 
wrote in the popular, pluralist Maariv (2/18): QWhat is currently 
missing in the formation of a unity government is a rotation.  This 
is the main issue that [President Shimon] Peres must solve.  This 
isnQt complicated when Netanyahu is under pressure.... Kadima would 
normally have joined Labor on the opposition backbenches.  But this 
will not happen.... Livni apparently fears the chill of sitting in 
the opposition.  Furthermore, this is all that the bad cards that 
the Israelis dealt last week can yield.  Fasten your seat belts. 
 
CUNNINGHAM