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PARIS ALSO FOR POL 
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E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS
 
SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION 
 
-------------------------------- 
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT: 
-------------------------------- 
 
Outcome of Israeli Elections 
 
------------------------- 
Key stories in the media: 
------------------------- 
 
Electronic media presented the nearly final results of yesterday 
Knesset elections (99.7% of ballots have been counted, with only 
soldiers votes yet to be included).  The results show that Kadima 
edges Likud by one Knesset seat, but that Likud Chairman Benjamin 
Netanyahu would be able to muster a right wing-bloc (65 seats vs. 55 
for the left).  Yediot called this a political knot.Q  Netanyahu 
called for the formation of a national camp government, while 
Kadima chair Tzipi Livni renewed her call on Netanyahu to form a 
national unity government.  Some commentators evoked the possibility 
of a rotational government headed by Kadima/Likud.  Israel Radio 
reported that Likud politicians rule this out: Former FM Silvan 
Shalom told the radio that such an arrangement would be possible 
only if the two blocs were equal.  Yisrael Beiteinu became the 
third-largest party in the Knesset but fell well below pre-election 
forecasts of nearly  20-seats; its leader, Avigdor Lieberman, called 
for the formation of a national camp government.  The Labor Party 
dropped to 13 seats. 
 
Results in Knesset seats as published this morning: 
Kadima 28; Likud:27; Yisrael Beiteinu: 15; Labor Party: 13; Shas: 
11; United Torah Judaism: 5 ; National Union: 4; Hadash: 4; RaQam 
TaQal (United Arab List - Arab Movement for Renewal): 4;  Meretz: 3; 
Balad  National Democratic Assembly: 3; Jewish Home: 3.  (Arab 
parties total 10 seats, unchanged from the previous Knesset.) 
 
HaQaretz and Israel Radio reported that yesterday UN Secretary 
General Ban Ki-moon appointed a board of inquiry into incidents that 
caused deaths and destruction at UN compounds in Gaza during the 
recent Israel-Hamas conflict.  The board will be headed by Ian 
Martin, a Briton who has led various crucial UN missions around the 
world.  He has been called on to complete the inquiry and submit a 
report within one month.  Ban said that the board will comprise 
legal advisers and a military expert.  Citing the AP, HaQaretz, The 
Jerusalem Post, and Makor Rishon-Hatzofe quoted an Amnesty 
International report released yesterday as saying that Hamas 
militants or security forces killed two dozen people and beat or 
tortured scores more during and after Israel's recent Gaza 
offensive. 
 
The media reported that yesterday dozens of Arab protesters 
confronted police in Umm al-Fahm after they learned that Knesset 
Member Aryeh Eldad (National Union) was there to serve as the town's 
ballot box chairman.  Five people were arrested for disturbing the 
peace, assault and throwing stones.   Maj. Gen. Shimon Koren, 
Commander of the Northern Police District, ordered the police to 
show the demonstrators "zero tolerance."  The right-wing party had 
sent Eldad to the Arab town as a backup for extremist Baruch Marzel, 
leader of the Jewish National Front, who had been authorized by the 
Central Elections Committee to fill the role of ballot box chairman 
there.  The police had announced their intention to keep Marzel out 
of the town in order to preserve public safety and let elections 
proceed unhindered.  Media quoted RaQam TaQal MK Ahmed Tibi as 
saying that he will not support Kadima. 
 
HaQaretz reported that, hours before exit polls were announced, 
media in the Arab world predicted that QextremistQ right wing 
political parties were expected to make a strong showing in the 
Israeli elections.  The Jerusalem Post quoted President Shimon Peres 
as saying yesterday that it is important for television viewers from 
Arab countries to see democracy in practice.  The Jerusalem Post and 
other media noted that the U.S. media paid scant attention to the 
elections. 
 
Makor Rishon-Hatzofe reported on confrontations between Jews and 
Muslims in South Africa and Australia. 
 
HaQaretz reported that a public committee and Education Minister 
Yuli Tamir have determined that in order to advance co-existence, 
each of the sectors -- Jewish and Arab -- must be taught about the 
other's culture, history, beliefs and heritage, from pre-school to 
grade 12.  Instruction hours should likewise be devoted to learning 
the "narrative of the other side."  HaQaretz also reported that, for 
the first time in the history of Israel's academy, an Arab lecturer, 
Dr. Mahmoud Yazbak, was elected president of the Middle East and 
Islamic Studies Association of Israel (MEISAI), the main association 
of researchers of the Middle East and Islam in Israel. The election 
brings to an end a long period during which Arabs did not hold key 
university positions in Israel in the field of Middle East studies. 
 
----------------------------- 
Outcome of Israeli Elections: 
----------------------------- 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
Senior columnist Nahum Barnea wrote on page one of the 
mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot: Irrespective of 
whether she becomes prime minister or not, Tzipi Livni yesterday won 
a major victory, one of the most impressive victories in the annals 
of Israeli politics. 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Ben Caspit wrote in the popular, pluralist 
Maariv: Netanyahu has a real behavior problem.  This has not 
changed in the course of the years.  It has even, perhaps, gotten 
worse.  If he doesn't straighten up, his second term will be even 
shorter than his first. 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Aluf Benn wrote in the independent, 
left-leaning Ha'aretz: A [Kadima-Labor] merger would strengthen the 
camp that supports a division of the land and a peace deal with 
Syria, in contrast with the right wing, which opposes any compromise 
or withdrawal. 
 
Former Meretz leader Dr. Yossi Beilin wrote in the independent 
Israel Hayom: I had much rather see a government with a clear 
direction, with two principal goals: the energetic continuation of 
the diplomatic move vis-`-vis the Palestinians and Syria, and an 
expansive economic policy investing in infrastructure. 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized: Israel 
needs an Arab partner with whom to make peace.... That said, Israel 
must not shirk its half of the conflict resolution equation. 
 
Editor-in-Chief Amnon Lord wrote in the editorial of the 
nationalist, Orthodox Makor Rishon-Hatzofe: The right-wing bloc 
scores a huge electoral victory - as is well known, a split one, 
but with a statement by the Israeli public regarding  the Kadima 
governments policy over the past three years. 
 
HaQaretz editorialized: Despite the doubts concerning her 
experience and her aggressive stance regarding the fighting in Gaza, 
Livni is better than Netanyahu as Israel's next prime minister. 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
¶I.  "Even if She Loses, She's Won" 
 
Senior columnist Nahum Barnea wrote on page one of the 
mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot (2/11): The winner is 
Livni, but Netanyahu holds the key.   If the results of the 
television stationsQ exit polls donQt differ dramatically from the 
final tally, Netanyahu is facing one of the most important decisions 
in his career: he can form a right wing coalition government under 
his leadership with either 63 or 64 seats.  A coalition of that sort 
will restore to the top tier of the Likud and, first and foremost, 
to Netanyahu himself the power and influence that they have missed 
so badly.  From their perspective, that is the advantage of such a 
coalition.  But that is hardly the coalition that Netanyahu dreamed 
about.  He doesn't want to head a government whose very existence is 
dependent on Lieberman and the National Unions whims.  The leaders 
of those parties have a hard time persevering inside coalitions. 
They will impose political paralysis on Netanyahu and impede his 
relations with the U.S. administration.  It is no coincidence that 
Netanyahu repeatedly said that the greatest political mistake he 
made was when he succumbed to the temptation to head a narrow right 
wing coalition when he was elected prime minister in 1996.  He vowed 
never to repeat that mistake.... The solution that seems to beckon 
is of a rotating premiership.  Livni will serve for two years as 
prime minister, after which Netanyahu will serve for two years.  The 
voters will love that solution, at first at least.  Netanyahu will 
love it less.  Livni isn't going to be overjoyed with the solution, 
but she probably won't have much of a choice.  Irrespective of 
whether she becomes prime minister or not, Tzipi Livni yesterday won 
a major victory, one of the most impressive victories in the annals 
of Israeli politics.  She won her party the same number of seats 
that Ehud Olmert won it in 2006.  Olmert had the option of relying 
on the enormous support that Ariel Sharon had garnered. Livni 
started almost from scratch.  Her campaign was personal: People who 
voted for Kadima didn't, for the most part, vote for the party or 
its list, but for Livni.  She has the full right to feel, even if 
just for a single night, that she is the local Obama. 
 
II.  "Lost before Winning" 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Ben Caspit wrote in the popular, pluralist 
Maariv (2/11): Only Netanyahu is capable of losing an election 
which had been a guaranteed victory and then becoming the next prime 
minister. If only Netanyahu had had a few more days he would also 
have lost his bid for the role of prime minister.  There wasn't a 
mistake he did not make in the course of his campaign.  There was 
not a single ditch he did not dig for himself.  No momentum he did 
not bring to a halt.  His failed deeds will be studied in years to 
come.  And yet, in the end of the day, if there is no huge surprise, 
he will still IsraelQs next prime minister.  God have mercy on such 
a government, god have mercy on Israel.  Not because of Netanyahu or 
his capabilities.  Because of the system.  Because of the stalemate. 
 Because of the dead end.  Yesterday he learned that he who eats 
alone also loses alone.  His loss was not great enough to cost him 
the role of prime minister.  We can only hope that it has taught him 
a lesson.  Netanyahu has a real behavior problem.  This has not 
changed in the course of the years.  It has even, perhaps, gotten 
worse.  If he doesnQt straighten up, his second term will be even 
shorter than his first. 
 
III.  "Election Equations" 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized (2/11): 
Benjamin Netanyahu has been pigeonholed as hawkish.  And while it 
is true that Tzipi Livni is a centrist, Israel's entire political 
spectrum has shifted rightward in reaction to years of Palestinian 
intransigence.... Isn't the [British newspaper The] Guardian's 
Jonathan Freedland oversimplifying in claiming that Netanyahu rules 
out any compromise on Jerusalem, and is still refusing to accept 
a Palestinian state?  Is it not a gross exaggeration to claim, as an 
Associated Press dispatch did, that Netanyahu opposes giving up 
land for peace?  Netanyahu told The Jerusalem Post that he would be 
delighted to find a formula that allows the Palestinians to govern 
themselves and Israel to live in security.  Regardless of whether 
our next prime minister is called Livni or Netanyahu, Israel needs 
an Arab partner with whom to make peace.  Ultimately, of course, a 
deal is dependent on what happens in both polities.  That said, 
Israel must not shirk its half of the conflict resolution equation. 
Our next premier must ensure that all coalition partners in the new 
government are committed to what, is after all, a strategic 
imperative for Israel -- peace. 
 
IV.  "Now Is the Time to Merge" 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Aluf Benn wrote in the independent, 
left-leaning Ha'aretz (2/11): There is no ideological difference 
between Labor and Kadima that could constitute an immovable obstacle 
to the parties' merger.  Both combine political moderation with 
security-minded toughness, and their participation in the Olmert 
government was characterized by agreement on most of the fundamental 
issues.  The crises stemmed from a personal dispute between Ehud 
Barak and Ehud Olmert, not from differences of opinion.  A merger 
would strengthen the camp that supports a division of the land and a 
peace deal with Syria, in contrast with the right wing, which 
opposes any compromise or withdrawal.  As the largest parliamentary 
faction, the merged party would be the one to form the next 
government.  Even if it needs right-wing parties in the coalition, 
it would still be a center-left government -- and this is how Israel 
would be viewed by the rest of the world.  A merger would keep the 
right wing from expanding the settlements, would save Israel from 
clashing with the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama, and 
would do away with the racist ideas of Avigdor Lieberman. 
 
¶V.  From a Tie to a Decisive Government 
 
Former Meretz leader Dr. Yossi Beilin wrote in the independent 
Israel Hayom (2/11): Responding to those who would suggest a 
rotation and a stable coalition, a decisive coalition is necessary 
... I had much rather see a government with a clear direction, with 
two principal goals: the energetic continuation of the diplomatic 
move vis-`-vis the Palestinians and Syria, and an expansive economic 
policy investing in infrastructure.... When the support of the 
entire [center-left] camp is ensured, Livni could check at the same 
time the possibility of expanding the coalition through bodies such 
as United Torah Judaism and other factions.  The right-wing camp 
may still reserve more surprises in the future. 
 
 
 
VI.  "The Public Said QNoQ to the Left-Wing Bloc" 
 
Editor-in-Chief Amnon Lord wrote in the editorial of the 
nationalist, Orthodox Makor Rishon-Hatzofe (2/11): Outwardly, the 
results of yesterdays elections are a tie between the two large 
parties, but there is no doubt which political bloc won the 
elections big-time.  The right-wing bloc scores a huge electoral 
victory - as is well known, a split one, but with a statement by 
the Israeli public regarding the Kadima governments policy over the 
past three years.  That statement cannot be interpreted by an elated 
Kadima leader as victory.... If the Knesset eventually looks like 
yesterdays exit polls, well force a political situation of a 
right-wing government in which there is no natural partner for a 
national unity government.  Kadima came out [of the elections] too 
strong. 
 
VII.  The Preferred Candidate 
 
Haaretz editorialized (2/10): In today's elections, the contenders 
for prime minister are Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu and Kadima 
leader Tzipi Livni, each of whom represents a different approach to 
Israel's future.... Netanyahu's positions and the Likud's extreme 
Knesset list guarantee the perpetuation of the occupation and the 
settlements (under the guise of economic peace), and bode poorly 
for Israel's international status.  His policy will lead Israel to a 
confrontation with Barack Obama's administration, which seeks to 
advance the two-state solution.  Livni is not an ideal candidate. 
She pushed the outgoing cabinet to an erroneous war in Gaza and 
drove to expand it into a ground operation.... But in the most 
important issue at stake, the one in which the candidates present 
clear differences in approach and way -- the future of the relations 
with the Palestinians -- Livni has made the right decision for 
dividing the land and the two-state solution.  She has adhered to 
this approach for several years now and led the move to resume the 
final status arrangement talks with Ehud Olmert in the outgoing 
government.... This is why, despite the doubts concerning her 
experience and her aggressive stance regarding the fighting in Gaza, 
Livni is better than Netanyahu as Israel's next prime minister. 
 
CUNNINGHAM