VZCZCXRO5176
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHTV #0341/01 0371658
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 061658Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0422
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000341 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM IS
SUBJECT:  THE FINAL POLLS AND A POST-ELECTION TIMELINE 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY:  The campaign strategists and media are united in their 
efforts to ignite public interest in the upcoming February 10th 
elections to Israel's 120-member Knesset.  The final polls conducted 
by Israeli media and published on February 6 are predicting a closer 
race than they were a week ago, as support for the Yisrael Beiteinu 
Party (YBP) rises at the expense of the Likud.  The real drama may 
be reserved for the post-election period when, operating according 
to a legal timeline, President Peres will task a party leader with 
the formation of a new Israeli government and the work of 
coalition-building may commence.  The leader of the party that wins 
the most votes is traditionally given the first opportunity to form 
a government.  Despite the narrowing of the race between Likud and 
Kadima, most Israelis polled anticipate that Likud Chairman Binyamin 
Netanyahu will be Israel's next prime minister.  Kadima organizers 
are hoping for an upset.  End Summary. 
 
----------------------------------- 
THE FINAL POLLS PREDICT CLOSER RACE 
----------------------------------- 
¶2.  Polls released by Ha'aretz and other media organs on February 6 
- last date that polls are allowed before the elections -- predict 
that Likud will fall short of the thirty seats anticipated in recent 
months.  Analysts believe that YBP has picked up support at Likud's 
expense rather than at the expense of Kadima.  Others attribute the 
fall to a successful (negative) Kadima ad campaign against Likud 
Chairman Netanyahu.  A Kadima contact told us he believes that these 
final pre-election polls showing a close race will lead undecided 
voters to vote for Kadima or Likud rather than YBP or other second 
or third tier parties.   Kadima operatives remain hopeful that those 
who know and support Netanyahu have already made up their minds, and 
that a greater percentage of the undecided electorate will vote for 
Livni on February 10.  Viewed through this optic, Kadima organizers 
are hoping for a high voter turnout, which they believe will help 
lift Livni to victory.  Lower turnout of the undecided -- of either 
Jewish or Arab voters - will hurt Livni, in their view. 
 
-------------------------- 
ELECTION DAY & COUNTING... 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3. On Tuesday February 10th, close to 5.3 million Israelis over the 
age of 18 will be eligible to vote for one of 34 party lists for the 
18th Knesset to be held in polling stations open from 7am to 10pm in 
major cities and until 8pm in small communities across the country. 
When the polling stations close a secretary and representatives of 
three different parties, assigned to each station, will take the 
ballot results to the regional election committees, where they will 
be fed into the database of the Central Elections Committee (CEC). 
That database, which will be accessible by internet, will be updated 
throughout the night of the 10th of February.  By dawn on February 
11th, and depending on the closeness of the race, the general trend 
of the voting may be apparent and exit polling data will be 
released. 
 
------------------ 
MAKING IT OFFICIAL 
------------------ 
 
¶4. Barring computer failure, allegations of voter fraud or other 
irregularities, the final returns of polling should be known well in 
advance of the mandatory deadline for publication of the official 
election results.  Israeli law provides a full week however, in 
which the authorities may finalize the count and publish it in the 
official government gazette, no later than February 18. 
 
------------------- 
ENTER THE PRESIDENT 
------------------- 
 
¶5.  Within seven days of the publication of the official election 
results, the President of State must, after consultation with party 
leaders, task one with the formation of a government.  Israeli law 
does not explicitly prohibit consultations between the President and 
party leaders prior to the official publication of the results and 
if the election race is as close one between Likud and Kadima, as 
some pundits and pollsters now forecast, the President may wish to 
embark on his consultations as early as possible to ensure that the 
party leader tasked is certain of a Knesset majority (61 members) 
without which the governing party would not have the confidence of 
the Knesset.  A close election result could affect the criteria for 
the President's selection of the candidate to form a government, 
since mere party size might be of less consequence than the ability 
of the party leader to form the minimum requisite coalition of 61 
Knesset members.  This consideration aside, there is an as-yet 
unbroken Israeli tradition that the President will give the leader 
of the party that wins the most votes the first opportunity to form 
a government. 
 
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THE PRESIDENT IN SEARCH OF A PRIME MINISTER 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  Once the President has completed consultations with all the 
 
TEL AVIV 00000341  002 OF 002 
 
 
faction leaders of parties that will cross the two-percent threshold 
required to win a seat in the Knesset, he formally assigns the task 
of establishing a government to a selected party leader who has 28 
days in which to meet this requirement, with a further 14 days 
extension at the discretion of the President.  If the said Knesset 
Member is unable to form a government within this maximum 
allocation, or on presenting the government to the Knesset, fails to 
secure its vote of confidence, the President may again consult with 
party leaders with a view to re-assigning the task of forming a 
government. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
THE PRIME MINISTER IN SEARCH OF A COALITION 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. The most difficult part of the post-election political process is 
not the president's search for a willing prime minister but the 
prime minister's quest for a viable coalition.  The two processes 
are inextricably linked, however, which is why the law makes various 
modalities available for the purpose of forming a government and 
lays down a clear timeline which must be met by its leader in regard 
to the legislature.  One key date in the timeline is the date for 
the convening of the 18th Knesset which is set for the afternoon of 
Tuesday 24 February.  This date which falls only 14 days after the 
elections, is highly symbolic, but does not obligate either the 
President or a new prime minister -- in the event that one has been 
named.  If the process of consultations and government formation is 
still unresolved, the Knesset session will be devoted to the 
inaugural session of the plenary and the swearing in of all 120 
members of Knesset.  In the event that the President has succeeded 
in naming a Prime Minister who has successfully formed a government, 
the Knesset could be asked for its vote of confidence.  A more 
likely scenario is that the prime minister will require nothing 
short of the available allocation of time to assemble a viable 
coalition to be presented to the Knesset at a later date, most 
likely in late March (assuming the first party leader is able to 
form a government within 28 days). 
 
CUNNINGHAM