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P 061157Z FEB 09
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RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 5780
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT PRIORITY 5009
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 3480
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 5799
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 2636
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0849
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RHMFIUU/COMSIXTHFLT  PRIORITY

UNCLAS TEL AVIV 000334 
 
STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD 
 
WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM 
NSC FOR NEA STAFF 
 
SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA 
HQ USAF FOR XOXX 
DA WASHDC FOR SASA 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR PA 
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL FOR POLAD/USIA ADVISOR 
COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE FOR PAO/POLAD 
COMSIXTHFLT FOR 019 
 
JERUSALEM ALSO ICD 
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL 
PARIS ALSO FOR POL 
ROME FOR MFO 
 
SIPDIS 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS
 
SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION 
 
-------------------------------- 
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT: 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶1.  Israeli Elections 
 
¶2.  Mideast 
 
------------------------- 
Key stories in the media: 
------------------------- 
 
All print media led with the last election polls: 
Kadima trails behind Likud by one to three Knesset seats; a swelling 
Yisrael Beiteinu comes in third, ahead of and the Labor Party.  But 
when it comes to forming a coalition, Likud still has a clear edge 
over its rival: Even in the unlikely event of Avigdor Lieberman 
choosing to throw his support behind Kadima chairwoman Tzipi Livni 
rather than Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu, the only coalition Livni 
could form would be highly unstable. -- and without Lieberman, she 
has no coalition at all.  The media forecast low voter turnout, 
particularly among Israeli Arabs. 
 
HaQaretz reported that PM Ehud Olmert has been making great efforts 
in recent weeks to clinch a deal with Hamas for the release of Gilad 
Shalit, and recently said privately that he is determined to try to 
bring Shalit home before he leaves office.  However, DM Ehud Barak 
told Channel 2-TV last week that he believes there is a better 
prospect of bringing Shalit home after the elections than before. 
But Thursday he seemed to backtrack, saying the results of the 
military campaign in the Gaza Strip "can help us accelerate the 
decision-making process to bring Shalit home.  It will require tough 
and painful decisions, but I believe there will be cabinet members 
who will do these things." 
 
Meretz Chairman Haim Oron (QJumesQ) was quoted as saying in an 
interview with HaQaretz that the Qtwo-state solution is on its last 
legs. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that yesterday Radikha Coomaraswamy, the 
UN special representative for children and armed conflict, told the 
newspaper that the UN is ready to address HamasQs use of children as 
human shields. 
 
Israel Radio reported that Israel is freeing the 18 passengers and 
crewmembers of the Lebanese ship the Israeli Navy commandeered 
yesterday.  Four passengers will remain in custody.  The radio 
reported that Lebanon is urging the UN Security Council to force 
Israel to release the ship.  In another development, HaQaretz 
reported that Greece has been holding a ship bound for Iran for over 
a month because its cargo was found to contain components for 
surface-to-surface missiles. 
 
Israel Radio reported that this morning two rockets were launched at 
Israel from Gaza. 
 
Israel Radio reported that yesterday Secretary of State Hilary 
Clinton thanked Olmert for transferring 175 million shekels (around 
$44 million) to Palestinian banks.  The radio reported that the 
Kibbutz Movement is sending three truck loads of aid to Gaza.  Makor 
Rishon-Hatzofe cited research by the Jerusalem Center for Public 
Affairs that the PA finances HamasQs military with aid money from 
the U.S. and other countries. 
 
Col. Alain Fougeras, the head of the European Union Border 
Assistance Mission, which is in charge of monitoring activity at the 
Rafah crossing, was quoted as saying in an interview with The 
Jerusalem Post that keeping the crossing open is critical and that 
security protocols must be signed this time. 
 
The Jerusalem Post cited an analysis of the Gaza operation by 
Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International 
Studies that concluded that Israel did not violate the laws of war 
and made marked improvements in its fighting capability during the 
recent military operation against Hamas in Gaza, yet the gains from 
the conflict in the long term remain uncertain,. 
The Jerusalem Post quoted an Israeli defense official involved in 
international efforts to stop IranQs race toward nuclear power as 
saying that a victory by Muhammad Khatami in the upcoming Iranian 
presidential elections would likely derail that process. 
 
The Jerusalem Post quoted the Israeli NGO BQTselem as saying 
yesterday in its annual report that Israel has been holding 42 
Palestinians in administrative detention for more than two years. 
 
Leading media reported that, during a lecture at Stockholm 
University on Wednesday, Israeli Ambassador to Sweden Benny Dagan 
was hit by a protesterQs shoe while defending the IDFQs actions in 
Gaza. 
Former U.S. Ambassador to the UN John Bolton was quoted as saying in 
an interview with The Jerusalem Post that the window of opportunity 
for military action against Iran is small and that the next Israeli 
PM would do well to appoint a counterpart to deal with U.S. envoy 
George Mitchell. 
 
Yediot reported on a meeting that took place yesterday between war 
orphans from Gaza and Sderot children. 
 
Yediot reported that one year ago Israeli agents used intelligence 
gathered by the U.S. to assassinate chief Hizbullah operative Imad 
Mughniyah in Damascus. 
 
Yediot reported that yesterday Justice Minister Daniel Friedmann 
signed an MOU with the U.S. on cooperation regarding the enforcement 
of child alimony payments: the U.S. authorities will deal with 
Israelis residing in the U.S who do not pay child support Q and the 
other way around. 
 
HaQaretz cited the results of a poll taken yesterday among 
Palestinians: 46% believe that Hamas won in Gaza. 
 
---------------------- 
¶1.  Israeli Elections: 
---------------------- 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized: 
QIsrael's next coalition government needs to put defining this 
country's red lines high on its agenda.  Our negotiators can then 
take those parameters, reflecting a national consensus, to the 
negotiating table. 
 
The independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized: QThe moment 
young people, secular people or Arabs, stay away from the polls, 
they are distorting the outcome of the election to their own 
detriment. 
 
Senior columnist and longtime dove Yoel Marcus wrote in Ha'aretz: QA 
20-percent abstention equals dozens of seats, which could neutralize 
Liebermanism.  Tzipi and Netanyahu would do well to join forces in a 
new government that will tackle both the problems of peace and the 
demon that is turning the country into a bastion of apartheid. 
 
HaQaretz publisher Amos Schocken wrote in his newspaper: QMeretz's 
position during the war in the south is no reason not to vote for 
it.... For its responsible and balanced behavior Meretz is now 
paying a high price, although this behavior should actually have 
been rewarded by a large number of votes. 
 
The nationalist, Orthodox Makor Rishon-Hatzofe editorialized: 
QNetanyahu is the man leading the resistance of public opinion that 
is gushing to the right.  Thus, until the job is done, Likud must be 
strengthened in order to make a true makeover possible. 
 
Prominent playwright Yehoshua Sobol wrote in the popular, pluralist 
Maariv: QAs a result of the never-ending conflict and the blows we 
have repeatedly inflicted and received, we have turned into the 
mirror image of the Palestinians.  They elected Hamas and we are 
voting for thrombosis in the arteries of peace that wonQt come. 
Desperation meets desperation. 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
¶I.  "Red Lines" 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized (2/6): 
QWhat guarantee do we have that once a Syria-Israel peace treaty was 
in place -- and the Golan abandoned -- Damascus-Tehran relations 
wouldn't revert to normal; that Syria wouldn't continue to give 
Hamas leaders safe haven; and that it wouldn't go on funneling 
Hizbullah weapons?  Should these doubts prompt red lines?.... 
Mahmoud Abbas today is still demanding: a total pullback to the 1949 
Armistice Lines; the redivision of Jerusalem, and the QreturnQ of 
millions of refugees, and their descendants, to Israel proper.   How 
are these red lines, representing the most QmoderateQ Palestinian 
position, to be reconciled with those of Israel's mainstream?  It's 
hard to fathom.... Israeli negotiators thus need to determine 
whether Palestinian red lines are indelible. It may be that they 
aren't.  Just four decades ago, the Arabs declared:  QNo peace, no 
negotiation, and no recognitionQ; today Israel has formal peace 
treaties with Egypt and Jordan, and is talking to the Palestinians. 
Israel's next coalition government needs to put defining this 
country's red lines high on its agenda.  Our negotiators can then 
take those parameters, reflecting a national consensus, to the 
negotiating table.  Benjamin Netanyahu may be best suited to help us 
identify our red lines at home; Tzipi Livni might be more credible 
at marketing them abroad.  Crystallizing red lines is not about 
throwing down the gauntlet, it's about knowing our own minds.  The 
danger lies not in revealing our hand, but in not having one. 
 
II.  "DonQt Sit at Home" 
 
The independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized (2/6): QFor 50 
years, voter turnout in Israel was extremely high, at about 80 
percent.  Over the last decade, however, it has dropped, and in the 
last election it hit a worrying low of 63 percent.  This decline in 
voter participation harms democracy and undermines the government's 
legitimacy.... The moment young people, secular people or Arabs, 
stay away from the polls, they are distorting the outcome of the 
election to their own detriment and essentially strengthening all 
the candidates and parties they oppose.  And in this election, this 
message seems especially important -- because everyone who votes 
with his feet, everyone who abstains, will be strengthening 
Lieberman.  Once every three years (that has been the average 
recently), we are asked to take our fate into our own hands and 
support some party or another.  This is not a major effort. Election 
Day is a national holiday.  We have a not inconsiderable choice of 
33 different lists, of which about half have a reasonable chance of 
making it into the Knesset. It is very important that the decision 
be made by as many people as possible -- because it is important 
that, insofar as possible, the results reflect the will of the 
nation, and not just the will of those who bothered to get out and 
vote. 
 
 
 
 
III.  "The Princess and Ivan the Terrible" 
 
Senior columnist and longtime dove Yoel Marcus wrote in Ha'aretz 
(2/6): QTzipi Livni is not Sharon, but she wrote the party platform 
at his ranch, and was his loyal helpmate all along.  When she won 
the Kadima party nomination for prime minister, the public greeted 
her victory with approval and optimism.  To her credit, let it be 
said that long before Lieberman popped up with his demands to take 
away the citizenship of a million and a half Israeli Arabs, and 
Netanyahu tried to rebrand the Likud as a centrist party, Livni 
supported the establishment of a unity government with Likud and 
Labor on the grounds that the left Qisn't so left anymore and the 
right isn't so right.Q  A 20-percent abstention equals dozens of 
seats, which could neutralize Liebermanism.  Tzipi and Netanyahu 
would do well to join forces in a new government that will tackle 
both the problems of peace and the demon that is turning the country 
into a bastion of apartheid.  Lieberman, like [the late extremist 
Rabbi Meir] Kahane, must remain outside. 
 
IV.  "IQm Voting Meretz" 
 
HaQaretz publisher Amos Schocken wrote in his newspaper (2/6): 
QMeretz's position during the war in the south is no reason not to 
vote for it.  If anything, it's a badge of honor for the party and 
its leaders, another one of many reasons to vote for the party in 
the upcoming elections.... Meretz could have tried to find favor in 
the eyes of its electorate and express opposition to any military 
operation.  But in the complicated situation of prolonged firing 
into Israeli territory by Hamas, Meretz did not abandon the 
residents of the south, even if they are not its natural electorate, 
and its stance, like the situation, was complex.  For its 
responsible and balanced behavior Meretz is now paying a high price, 
although this behavior should actually have been rewarded by a large 
number of votes. 
 
¶V.  QLikud -Q for a True Makeover 
 
The nationalist, Orthodox Makor Rishon-Hatzofe editorialized (2/6): 
QTuesdayQs vote must express the makeover that has clearly emerged 
in Israeli public opinion.  The public abandoned en masse the 
left-centerQs way.  It has strenuously opposed the Olmert 
governmentQs policy and the line that Sharon led since 
disengagement.  The person who extricated Israeli public opinion 
from the straits of Kadima and the left was Benjamin Netanyahu - 
not Avigdor Lieberman, and neither the QorangeQ [settler] leaders. 
Netanyahu is the man leading the resistance of public opinion that 
is gushing to the right.  Thus, until the job is done, Likud must be 
strengthened in order to make a true makeover possible. 
 
VI.  QIsrael Votes for Thrombosis 
 
Prominent playwright Yehoshua Sobol wrote in the popular, pluralist 
Maariv (2/6): QThe lack of passion for becoming the next prime 
minister of Israel likely springs from each candidateQs knowledge 
that he has no real solution for the expected upcoming economic 
crisis, bankruptcies, and mass dismissals.  This brings about a lack 
of passion to make the voter choose between the quiet man 
[Netanyahu] and the other woman [Livni], the unpleasant man [Barak], 
or the one who understands Arabic [Lieberman].  Without passion on 
the side of the elected officials, how surprising is it that the 
voters have become indifferent  as they have shaken off faith and 
hope?  As a result of the never-ending conflict and the blows we 
have repeatedly inflicted and received, we have turned into the 
mirror image of the Palestinians.  They elected Hamas and we are 
voting for thrombosis in the arteries of peace that wonQt come. 
Desperation meets desperation. 
 
------------ 
¶2.  Mideast: 
----------- 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
Freelance journalist Sean Gannon wrote in the conservative, 
independent Jerusalem Post: Q[The] QIrish solution to an Irish 
problemQ is unthinkable in the case of Hamas. 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
"Resist the Irish Model" 
 
Freelance journalist Sean Gannon wrote in the conservative, 
independent Jerusalem Post (2/6): QGiven that U.S. complicity played 
a major role in legitimizing the spurious Sinn Fein/IRA divide, 
WashingtonQs insistence that Hamas cannot Qhave one foot in politics 
and the other in terrorQ should be treated with caution.... The 
Irish modelQs toleration of a level of terrorist activity in the 
interests of reaching an agreement was barely supportable in a 
situation where IRA attacks were by then seldom indiscriminate 
(limited largely to military and economic targets) and not intended 
to cause mass slaughter.  But this QIrish solution to an Irish 
problemQ is unthinkable in the case of Hamas, which makes every 
possible effort to inflict maximum casualties and whose demands are, 
in any case (unlike those of [Northern Irish] Republicans, not 
amenable to political accommodation.  If Northern Ireland has a 
lesson for the Middle East conflict it is this: Terrorists will not 
lay down their weapons until they feel they are left with no choice. 
 Sinn Fein/IRAQs decision to renounce violence was largely the 
result of exhaustion, and exhaustion born both of repeated military 
reversals and increasing pressure to end its campaign from elements 
of its own wider community, from Irish constitutional nationalists 
and the Catholic Church to the Dublin government and latterly, Irish 
America.  In other words, its effective defeat. 
 
CUNNINGHAM