VZCZCXRO2447
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0016/01 0440910
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 130910Z FEB 09
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0364
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0349
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0175
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0155
RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0370

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000016 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, INR/EAP, AND EB/ESC/IEC 
DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/P-42 
COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EPET EINV ELAB ENRG PGOV ASEC ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: U.S. ADVISOR BUILDING 
RELATIONSHIPS; SUBSIDENCE AND FUNDING PROBLEMS LIMIT OPTIONS 
 
REF: A. 08 SURABAYA 138 (AND PREVIOUS) 
     ¶B. 08 SURABAYA 132 
 
SURABAYA 00000016  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
This Message is Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please Protect 
Accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: After almost two months on site, the U.S. mud 
advisor Van Williams has built a strong working relationship 
with officials at the Sidoarjo Mud Management Agency (BPLS). 
The collapse of a major directional dike at the mudflow's 
epicenter has hampered BPLS's efforts to move large quantities 
of mud out to sea via the Porong River during the ongoing rainy 
season.  BPLS and Williams would like to reinstall seismic 
monitors to help predict the rate of subsidence in the affected 
area, especially to the populated north and west of the site. 
Cash-strapped Lapindo, responsible for financing the BPLS 
operation, is unable fully to fund necessary maintenance or 
purchases of critical equipment.   BPLS has been able to keep 
the situation "kind of under control," but is fighting a losing 
battle as the volume of mud coming out of the ground exceeds the 
volume BPLS can move.  End Summary. 
 
Excellent Cooperation 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) USG-funded mud advisor Van Williams has been working 
with BPLS officials at the Sidoarjo mud flow site since 
mid-December 2008 (Ref A).  During his first two months, 
Williams has developed an excellent cooperative working 
relationship with BPLS officials and local technical advisors. 
He observed to ConGen Surabaya that numerous expert Indonesian 
scientists and engineers have done detailed investigations and 
compiled data on the mud flow.  The tremendous amount of 
engineering work being done at the site has largely succeeded so 
far in containing the dynamic and constantly changing mud flow 
and preventing additional damage to the surrounding communities. 
 This containment is threatened by accelerating land subsidence 
that continuously undermines the central control dikes and 
directs the mud in undesirable directions.  The difficulty is 
compounded by only partial implementation of the internal 
mitigation plans prepared by BPLS due to decreased funding from 
Lapindo. 
 
¶3. (SBU) BPLS has had its hands full since the rainy season 
began and Lapindo's parent company the Bakrie Group suffered 
significant financial losses (Ref B).  When the internal dikes 
directing mud toward the Porong River collapsed, BPLS lost the 
ability to control the direction of the mud flow.  Rather than 
flowing south toward the pumps, the mud began flowing north and 
west, toward the areas of greatest subsidence but also towards 
major infrastructure and heavily populated areas.  A factory, 
which had been surrounded yet untouched by mud, found itself 
inundated with muddy water as the mud overtopped protective 
dikes.  Within recent days, mud has built up sufficiently to 
start pushing the mud and water southward toward the pumps, 
although this change of course is from excessive buildup 
elsewhere in the mud flow area, rather than a fully positive 
development. 
 
Subsidence Draws Mud Toward Infrastructure 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Subsidence levels on the western side of the site, 
where the major road and railroad run, are very high.  In 
between trains, workers jack up the rail lines and insert rock 
ballast to keep the railroad linking Surabaya's port to 
industrial areas to the east operational.  Methane releases 
along the western side are also heavier than in other areas. 
Williams identified two types of subsidence: shallow compaction 
caused by the weight of the dikes and mud atop foundations of 
weak soil, and deep-rooted subsidence caused by the mud coming 
up from great depth and leaving space behind.  BPLS and Williams 
hope that seismic monitors can be reinstalled to help officials 
get a better picture of the deep geologic structures controlling 
subsidence.  Williams expressed concern that the water and 
methane eruptions in West Siring and areas to the west and north 
of the containment zone could connect far underground and create 
new vents for mud to erupt outside the existing dikes. 
 
¶5. (SBU) BPLS is focused on managing the mud flow and giving 
officials sufficient time to relocate critical infrastructure. 
The land in this area is only two meters above sea level and 
 
SURABAYA 00000016  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
sinking more quickly than land closer to the sea.  Williams 
predicted the village of West Siring, and the existing road and 
railroad, may eventually be overwhelmed by the mud, but no one 
could know when that would happen.  Officials told Williams that 
50% of the land, primarily agricultural land, needed for a new 
transportation corridor to the west of the site had been 
purchased.  However, officials admitted that they were 
encountering resistance from landowners in urban areas. 
 
Operational Funding Inadequate 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) BPLS officials complain that, while Lapindo does not 
directly refuse to fund BPLS recommended mitigation measures, it 
provides only a fraction of the money necessary to maintain 
operations.  While BPLS says it needs 100 trucks of dirt a day 
to maintain existing dikes, Lapindo provides only half that 
number.  Pumps needed to move mud from the holding ponds into 
the Porong River have been ordered, but delivery is on hold 
until Lapindo provides the cash.  BPLS continues to push for the 
central government to take over funding its operations arguing 
that half-measures will eventually have serious consequences. 
 
Looking Ahead 
------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Looking forward, Williams is working to deepen the 
dialogue between the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Corps of 
Engineers, and BPLS.  Besides technical questions such as 
continued chemical sampling to anticipate and predict potential 
changes in eruption pattern.  BPLS has requested USGS help in 
identifying the source of the mud flow's energy as an aid to 
predicting the likely duration of eruptions so that realistic 
long-range mitigation plans can be developed.  Williams feels 
this is a contribution USGS is uniquely qualified to make. 
Regardless of who will eventually assume the responsibility for 
long-term hazard control of the mud flow, such information is 
vital for success. 
MCCLELLAND