VZCZCXRO1601
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0010/01 0341123
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 031123Z FEB 09
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0355
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0170
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0341
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0361

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000010 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, INR/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ID KISL KIRF
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA: GOVERNOR'S RACE ENDS WITH MURKY LESSONS FOR 2009 
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN 
 
REF: A. A) 2008 SURABAYA 94 (EAST JAVA'S FIRST FEMALE GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE) 
     ¶B. B) 2008 SURABAYA 131 (RUN-OFF SIGNALS VOTER APATHY AND PARTY DISUNITY) 
     ¶C. C) 2008 SURABAYA 88 (WEAK PARTY LOYALTY IN GENERAL ELECTION) 
 
SURABAYA 00000010  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
The message is sensitive but unclassified. Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Indonesia's most populous province has finally 
elected a new governor after one general election and two 
run-off elections. Unprecedented televised testimony in 
Indonesia's Constitutional Court triggered a second runoff after 
vote buying in Madura was revealed. In a province of nearly 40 
million, East Java's Election's Commission (KPU) and the 
Constitutional courts effectively managed complex logistic and 
legal challenges through three rounds of elections. With only 
34,000 votes out of more than 15 million cast separating winners 
from losers, this election raised more questions that it has 
answered about what it takes to win over today's Indonesian 
voter. End Summary 
 
Good Ground Game Plus Religious Conservatism 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) After three rounds of voting, Soekarwo and Syaifullah 
Yusuf, supported by the National Mandate Party (PAN), Party 
Democrat (PD), and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), again 
narrowly defeated Khofifah Indar Parawansa and Mudjiono, 
supported by the United Development Party (PPP), the Patriot 
Party, and a coalition of smaller parties. Voters in the 
court-mandated January 21 run-off in two regencies on the 
conservative island of Madura cast the deciding votes in a 
closely fought election. Discussions with voters at polling 
stations in Madura showed that village heads were critical in 
getting out the vote for Soekarwo. One village head claimed that 
he provided transportation to the polls for each of the 
village's 300 registered voters -- intercepting them on the way 
to work their fields.  Similar claims were made at two other 
polling stations. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Perhaps reflecting Soekarwo's behind the scenes 
campaigning during the Madura run-off, one conservative Muslim 
voter told us that he could not vote for Khofifah on religious 
grounds since she is a woman. This was also the reason Soekarwo 
got the backing of PKS, who reportedly declined to support 
Khofifah due to her gender. The KPU received reports of vague 
threats made to voters by Khofifah's Patriot Party supporters, 
who are reportedly tied to gangsters or 'preman'. (Ref A). 
Khofifah has yet to concede and will reportedly file formal 
complaints regarding new irregularities found by her campaign's 
poll watchers. KPU officials have told us, however, that 
reported irregularities do not appear to be systematic and are 
very unlikely to affect the outcome. 
 
The Courts' Evolving Role in Elections 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Staff attorney for East Java KPU, Mr. Fahmi Bachmid, 
told us that the Constitutional Court's decision to hold 
hearings in response to Khofifah's original allegations of 
widespread fraud during the general election was unnecessary and 
weakened the role of the KPU. He noted that while Khofifah's 
campaign alleged violations in only some of Madura's polling 
stations, the courts decided that the run-off should include two 
entire regencies containing nearly half a million people. The 
KPU had no choice but to comply with the decision. However, 
violations during the election did not rise to the levels 
required for a recount, according to Bachmid. And the court's 
order put a real strain on the KPU at a time when it could ill 
afford the extra expense. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The KPU's unease with the courts echoes what we have 
heard from KPU officials in South Sulawesi, which was the scene 
of a contentious courtroom drama over the results of last year's 
governor's election. KPU officials expressed concern that the 
courts might increasingly wade into election disputes due to 
pressure from political parties hoping to overturn a loss at the 
polls. Other observers said that the Constitutional Court's 
decision was an attempt to play a constructive role and clear 
the air over the results in a close race. 
 
General Election vs. Runoff --Strategies for 2009 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The East Java governor's race shows the complex 
electoral landscape facing presidential campaign strategists. In 
 
SURABAYA 00000010  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
a crowded field, early campaigning in East Java sought support 
based on party platforms. This culminated in a first-ever 
televised debate between the original five East Java candidate 
teams. Discussion of issues faded, however as get-out-the-vote 
efforts focused on the candidates' persona alone in the run-off 
elections between Soekarwo and Khofifah. Voter turnout also 
dropped dramatically after the general election (Ref B). While 
East Java is home to Indonesia's largest Muslim organization, 
Nadlatul Ulama (NU), the political role of local Islamic leaders 
(or Kiai) was weakened during the campaign as voters ignored 
their endorsements and NU support splintered between two 
NU-affiliated candidates. Religion seems to have been 
repositioned too. While Islamic credentials loomed large early 
in public discussions regarding the candidates, an anticipated 
Islamic voting bloc never coalesced decisively behind a single 
pair of candidates. If the East Java governor's election is a 
guide, issues like employment, healthcare and education will 
continue to motivate voters' choice of a candidate rather than 
party affiliation. However, a strong ground operation and direct 
appeals to individual voters are required to get voters to the 
polls. 
MCCLELLAND