VZCZCXYZ0025
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUL #0235/01 0440736
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 130736Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3244
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 8106
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC//DDI/OEA//
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//FPA//
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC//DB-Z//

UNCLAS SEOUL 000235 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/K, EAP/PD, INR/EAP/K AND INR/IL/P 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/WINGLE 
USDOC FOR 4430/IEP/OPB/EAP/WGOLICKE 
STATE PASS USDA ELECTRONICALLY FOR FAS/ITP 
STATE PASS DOL/ILAB SUDHA HALEY 
STATE PASS USTR FOR IVES/WEISEL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO PGOV PREL MARR ECON KS US
SUBJECT: PRESS BULLETIN - February 13, 2009 
 
Opinions/Editorials 
 
¶1. Lessons of 'Buy-American' Policy 
(Hankook Ilb, February 13, 2009, Page 39) 
¶2. National Security Worries 
(JoongAng Ilbo, February 13, 2009, Page 26) 
¶3. North Korea Should Not Miscalculate Things with a Missile Launch 
 
(Hankook Ilbo, February 13, 2009, Page 39) 
 
 
Top Headlines 
 
Chosun Ilbo 
National Intelligence Service to Reshuffle Key Senior Officials 
 
JoongAng Ilbo, All TVs 
ROKG, Ruling Party Decide 
to Offer Tax Waiver to Spur Home Sales 
 
Dong-a Ilbo 
Crisis to Foster SOC Projects, New Growth Engines 
 
Hankook Ilbo 
Education Ministry to Send Official in Charge of University 
Admission to Korean Council for University Education, 
an Indication that ROKG Might be Involved 
in College Admission Policy Again 
 
Hankyoreh Shinmun 
Controversy Spreads over Blue House's Alleged Instructions to Police 
to Promote Serial Killer Case in a Bid to Prevent Escalation of 
Anti-Government Rallies 
Sparked by "Yongsan Fire Tragedy" 
 
Segye Ilbo 
State-run Credit Insurers to Roll Over All their Guarantees 
on Bank Loans that Mature This year, 
Amounting to 34 Trillion Won 
 
Seoul Shinmun 
Worst Drought in 100 Years Hits ROK 
 
 
Domestic Developments 
 
¶1. Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan warned yesterday that North Korea 
would not benefit from a missile launch, because of the resulting 
international sanctions. (JoongAng) 
¶2. According to a senior Defense Ministry official, 12 members of 
the U.S. House Armed Services Committee will visit Seoul on Feb. 18 
to discuss pending bilateral issues, including the transfer of 
wartime operational control from the U.S. to the ROK and the 
relocation of USFK bases. (JoongAng) 
 
 
International News 
 
¶1. It was learned yesterday that North Korea has transported a 
Taepodong-2 missile to the Musudan-ri launch site on the east coast 
using a special covered cargo carriage to make it difficult to 
track. ROK and U.S. intelligence authorities assume that the North 
is now assembling the missile at the launch site and could 
test-launch it as early as Feb. 25, the first anniversary of 
President Lee Myung-bak's inauguration. (Chosun) 
 
¶2. According to diplomatic sources in Washington and the foreign 
media, Stephen Bosworth, a former U.S. Ambassador to the ROK, is 
certain to be named as Special Envoy for North Korea. (All) 
 
 
Media Analysis 
 
North Korea 
Conservative Chosun Ilbo front-paged a report claiming that North 
Korea has transported a Taepodong-2 missile to the Musudan-ri launch 
site on the east coast using a special covered cargo carriage to 
make it difficult to track.  The report went on to say that ROK and 
U.S. intelligence authorities assume that the North is now 
assembling the missile at the launch site and could test-fire it as 
early as Feb. 25, the first anniversary of President Lee Myung-bak's 
inauguration.  An ROKG official was quoted as saying: "The 
Taepodong-2 has not been seen near the launch pad yet.  We assume 
that they are currently assembling the first and second-stage 
rockets.  Given the time needed to move the missile to the launch 
pad, raise it, and fill it with liquid fuel once the first and 
second-stage rockets are assembled, it is unlikely that it will be 
ready for Feb. 16, leader Kim Jong-il's birthday." 
 
Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo carried a quote from Foreign Minister 
Yu Myung-hwan, who warned yesterday that North Korea would not 
benefit from a missile launch, because of the resulting 
international sanctions. 
 
JoongAng Ilb editorialized: "Amidst a series of signs that North 
Korea may soon test a long-range missile, North Korea's propaganda 
newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, has abruptly asserted North Korea's right 
to use and develop space technology.  Furthermore, the fact that 
Chinese vessels have stopped fishing in the West Sea is definitely 
an abnormal (would "unusual" fit better or not fit the original 
sense?) move.  Nevertheless, Seoul is exceptionally quiet, marking a 
stark contrast to Washington, where warnings about North Korea's 
provocations come out every day.  Some even predict that the North 
will probably seek to launch an attack calibrated to be too small 
for Washington to intervene but strong enough to cause psychological 
shock for the ROK.  With the economy in such bad shape, we can't 
afford concerns over national security.  The ROKG must show 
confidence and resolution on the matter."  Moderate Hankook Ilbo 
observed in an editorial: "Despite Washington's warnings and 
concerns, North Korea appears to be pushing for the launch of a 
ballistic missile.  It is also unusual that Pyongyang replaced the 
Minister of People's Armed Forces and the Chief of the General Staff 
at the same time.  We do not know what triggered these moves, 
whether it was the internal circumstances in the North or something 
else... Some observers say that these moves are designed to grab 
Washington's attention, but the North's saber-rattling against the 
Obama Administration, which is willing to have direct talks with it, 
will not benefit U.S.-North Korea relations.  It will only give 
ammunition to hawks." 
 
Citing diplomatic sources in Washington and the foreign media, the 
ROK media gave wide play to a report saying that Stephen Bosworth, a 
former U.S. Ambassador to the ROK, is certain to be named as Special 
Envoy for North Korea. 
 
Pakistan 
Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo replayed a Reuters report saying that 
Pakistan admitted for the first time on Feb. 12 that last November's 
Mumbai terrorist attacks were partially plotted on its soil. 
Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik was quoted as saying: "We 
have already expressed our intention to proactively cooperate with 
India regarding the terror attacks."  JoongAng viewed this 
development as setting the stage for a thaw in relations between 
Pakistan and India. 
 
 
Opinions/Editorials 
 
Lessons of 'Buy-American' Policy 
(Hankook Ilb, February 13, 2009, Page 39) 
 
By Sogang University Prof. An Se-young 
 
These days, a new protectionist streak is surfacing in the world 
economy.  In late January, the U.S. House of Representatives passed 
an economic stimulus package with a 'Buy-American' provision that 
prohibits the purchase of foreign iron and steel for any 
stimulus-funded infrastructure.  The mandatory use of its own 
products by a country under the World Trade Organization (WTO) 
system apparently is a policy that might be seen in East Asian or 
Latin American countries.  But the U.S., which has been in the 
vanguard of the world's free trade, made an unconvincing move. 
 
In fact, the 'Buy-American' provision is a bygone relic that 
vanished into history after the 1980s when Asian-made products such 
as textiles and electronic goods were imported en masse to the U.S. 
However, with economic meltdown in the U.S., the U.S. Congress 
revived the protectionist clause to pacify the laborers in its 
legislative districts. 
 
In the U.S., there is a saying, 'protectionism by Congress versus 
free trade by President'.  In times of economic downturn, lawmakers 
tend to represent interests of their legislative districts which 
generally call for protectionism.  But the U.S president takes a 
different attitude.  He is mindful of America's leadership in the 
international community and views the public economy from an overall 
perspective.  Therefore, the U.S president is somewhat keen on 
preserving free trade while occasionally balking at protectionist 
moves by Congress. 
 
The 'Buy-American' policy by the U.S. could lead to similar moves in 
countries such as the European Union (EU), Japan and Korea which are 
also eager to protect their own faltering industries.  France and 
China each are moving to enforce mandatory purchase of their own 
products. 
 
With spread of this vicious cycle, protectionism would spread beyond 
the steel industry into the manufacturing field and service sector.. 
 This would plunge the world economy into a great depression.  A 
study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics has 
found that the 'Buy-American' provision could create merely 1,000 
jobs in the steel industry.  On the contrary, if this protectionist 
move for steel spreads to U.S. trading partners such as EU and China 
and they import less U.S.-made steel products than before, it would 
cost the U.S. steel industry as many as 6, 500 jobs. 
 
We should draw clear lessons from the 'Buy-American' policy.  We 
should not budge an inch from the World Trade Organization (WTO) 
system that has taken hold for the past half century with 
cooperation from around the world.  President Lee Myung-bak stressed 
this point at the Group of 20 (G-20) financial summit and President 
Obama also underscored in early February that the 'Buy-American' 
provision should be in accordance with international agreements.  We 
expect the G-20 leaders, who will gather in London in April, to 
display leadership by spurning protectionism and making a concerted 
effort to re-affirm the world's free trade spirit. 
 
 
National Security Worries 
(JoongAng Ilbo, February 13, 2009, Page 26) 
 
A series of signs indicate that North Korea may soon test a 
long-range missile.  The intelligence authorities have evidence that 
missile launching equipment was positioned, after an object 
suspected to be a Taepodong-2 was moved to a missile base in 
Musudan-ri, Hwadae County, in North Hamgyeong Province. 
 
CNN reported that a U.S. intelligence satellite caught North Koreans 
assembling telemetry equipment used for a missile launch. 
 
North Korea's propaganda newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, abruptly talked 
about North Korea's right to use and develop space technology. 
Chinese fishing vessels stopped sailing into Yellow Sea waters, 
definitely an abnormal move.  Worries that North Korea will soon 
conduct a missile test are increasing. 
 
However, Seoul is exceptionally quiet, marking a stark contrast to 
Washington, where warnings about North Korea's provocations come out 
every day.  Seoul is taking a hands-off approach, just as it kept 
silent when North Korea announced that it would nullify all 
agreements between Seoul and Pyongyang that aimed to ease political 
and military confrontation, and that aimed to abolish causes of 
tension related to the Northern Limit Line, a sea border between the 
South and the North. 
 
South Korea is determined to abide by principles, remain persistent 
and resolute and not to change its attitude and stance according to 
North Korea's every move. 
 
However, the people are nervous.  Are there government measures to 
cope with a national security crisis if Pyongyang launches a 
Taepodong-2 missile and Washington shoots it down?  How will our 
government respond if North Korea fires a missile over the NLL into 
our territory, which Pyongyang claims as its waters? 
 
Will South Korea be lost, not knowing what to do, or will it 
counterattack?  If Seoul counterattacks, would this lead to an 
all-out war?  Some even predict that North Korea will probably seek 
an attack which would be too small for Washington to intervene but 
strong enough to cause psychological shock for South Korea. 
 
Our unification minister and the head of the National Intelligence 
Service have been replaced and the line-up of the new foreign 
affairs and national security team hasn't been decided yet, 
intensifying concerns even more. 
 
With the economy in such bad shape, we can't afford concerns over 
national security.  The government must show confidence and 
resolution on the matter. 
 
* This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is 
identical to the Korean version. 
 
 
North Korea Should Not Miscalculate Things with a Missile Launch 
(Hankook Ilbo, February 13, 2009, Page 39) 
 
A string of reports about North Korea are unsettling.  For quite a 
while, Pyongyang has pressured Seoul through statements from the 
Chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army and the 
Committee for the Peaceful Unification of the Fatherland, and this 
time, it is now preparing a launch of a ballistic missile.  After 
recently moving what looks like a Taepodong-2 missile to a launch 
site at Musudan-ri in Hwadae County, North Hamkyung Province, the 
North is now taking additional steps to test-fire the missile, such 
as assembling equipment for remote measurement.  Despite 
Washington's concern and its series of warnings, the North appears 
to be pushing for the launch of a ballistic missile.  It is also 
uncommon that Pyongyang replaced the Minister of People's Armed 
Forces and the Chief of the General Staff at the same time. 
 
We do not know what judgment the North made about the situation 
before making this move and how the internal circumstances in the 
North affected the move.  However, it is evident that in the current 
international situation, there is no benefit that the North can gain 
by raising tension through a missile launch.  Some observers say 
that it is designed to grab Washington's attention, but 
saber-rattling against the Obama Administration, which is willing to 
have direct talks with the North, is not beneficial to progress in 
the U.S.-North Korea relations.  It will only give ammunition to 
hawks. 
A missile launch may also be for internal purposes, of course.  The 
North might need an event like a missile firing to solidify internal 
unity, which was weakened by the alleged poor health of North Korean 
leader Kim Jong-il, and to pave the way for a post-Kim era.  The 
replacements of the Minister of People's Armed Forces and the Chief 
of the General Staff may have come in this context. 
 
If Pyongyang fires a Taepodong-2 missile for these purposes, it will 
likely say to the outside world that it is launching an artificial 
satellite, as it did in 1998.  Then, the North calculates, it could 
dodge criticism for violating the UN resolution.  However, 
considering that it is very difficult to distinguish a satellite 
projectile from a ballistic missile, the North's claim will be a 
transparent guile, and therefore, it will not be able to avoid 
international condemnation and sanctions.  It is also unusual that 
Washington is issuing a series of strong warnings against 
Pyongyang's missile test preparations.  The North should judge with 
a cool head what result its reckless behavior will produce. 
 
 
Stephens 
1