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Viewing cable 09SEOUL200, PRESS BULLETIN - February 6, 2009

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09SEOUL200 2009-02-06 08:37 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Seoul
VZCZCXYZ0004
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUL #0200/01 0370837
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 060837Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3180
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 8084
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC//DDI/OEA//
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//FPA//
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC//DB-Z//
UNCLAS SEOUL 000200 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/K, EAP/PD, INR/EAP/K AND INR/IL/P 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/WINGLE 
USDOC FOR 4430/IEP/OPB/EAP/WGOLICKE 
STATE PASS USDA ELECTRONICALLY FOR FAS/ITP 
STATE PASS DOL/ILAB SUDHA HALEY 
STATE PASS USTR FOR IVES/WEISEL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO PGOV PREL MARR ECON KS US
SUBJECT: PRESS BULLETIN - February 6, 2009 
 
Opinions/Editorials 
 
 
1. A Future for Iraq 
(JoongAng Ilbo, February 6, 2009, Page 27) 
2. Financial Protectionism Could Bring Second Crisis 
(Chosun Ilbo, February 6, 2009, Page 27) 
3. Even Though 'Buy America' Provisions Have Softened (Hankook Ilbo, 
February 6, 2009, Page 36) 
 
 
Features 
 
4. N. Korea "Could Fire Missiles across Sea Border" 
(Chosun Ilbo, February 6, 2009, Page 5) 
 
Top Headlines 
 
Chosun Ilbo 
The G20 Starts to Discuss Ways to Prevent "Financial Protectionism" 
 
JoongAng Ilbo 
Loopholes in ROK Social Safety Net Should Be Mended to Assist the 
"Newly Poor" 
 
Dong-a Ilbo 
Survey: Admissions Officials of 11 Major Universities Valued Talent 
and Aptitude Most in Selecting Students This Year 
 
Hankook Ilbo 
Conglomerates Face Restructuring 
 
Hankyoreh Shinmun 
Prosecution and Police Vow Strong Crackdown on "Memorial Rallies" 
for Victims of "Yongsan Tragedy" 
 
Segye Ilbo 
75 Percent of Experts Surveyed: "People's Right to Know and Freedom 
of Information "Regress" Under Current Administration 
 
Seoul Shinmun, All TVs 
Korean Figure Skater Kim Yu-na Sets World Record 
 
 
Domestic Developments 
 
1. According to an ROKG source, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 
will visit the ROK from Feb. 19-20. Secretary Clinton will meet with 
ROK Foreign Minister Yu Myung-kwan on Feb. 20 to discuss pending 
bilateral issues, including the North Korean nuclear issue, the 
bilateral alliance and Seoul's contribution to the U.S-led war in 
Afghanistan. She will also pay a courtesy call on President Lee. 
(JoongAng, Dong-a, Hankook, Hankyoreh, Segye, Seoul, all TVs) 
 
2. According to an ROKG source, the ROKG believes that the most 
likely provocation by North Korea would be the firing of short-range 
missiles across the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the de facto sea 
border between the two Koreas. (Chosun) 
 
3. Another ROKG source was quoted as saying: "North Korea would 
likely test-fire an upgraded version of the long-range Taepodong-2 
missile which it tested in 2006. The reason we believe it to be an 
upgraded version is that the previous one ended in failure." 
(JoongAng, all TVs) 
 
4. Former Vice Defense Minister Park Yong-ok said in a recent 
interview that it would be difficult for North Korea to go for an 
all-out provocation but that it would be possible for the North to 
test the ROK and U.S. militaries. (Chosun) 
 
 
International News 
 
1. The U.S. Senate voted on Feb. 4 to soften some of the 
controversial "Buy America" provisions in its economic stimulus 
bill. Accordingly, American trading partners, including the ROK and 
the EU, would likely be exempted from a strict requirement in the 
bill that all public works projects funded by the stimulus package 
use only U.S.-made iron, steel and manufactured goods. (All) 
Media Analysis 
 
Secretary Clinton's Trip to East Asia 
Citing an ROK Foreign Ministry official, most of the ROK media 
reported that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will visit the ROK 
from Feb. 19-20 after traveling to Japan and Indonesia.  The 
official was quoted as saying: "Secretary Clinton plans to hold 
talks with ROK Foreign Minister Yu Myung-kwan on Feb. 20 and she 
will also pay a courtesy call on President Lee Myung-bak."  Most of 
the ROK media noted that this will be the first official visit to 
the ROK by a high-ranking U.S. official since President Barack Obama 
took office, and expected that the two foreign ministers will 
discuss pending bilateral issues, including the North Korean nuclear 
issue, the bilateral alliance and Seoul's contribution to the 
U.S-led war in Afghanistan. 
 
North Korea 
Most of the ROK media continued to give attention to the purported 
preparations by North Korea to test-fire a long-range Taepodong-2 
missile.  Conservative Chosun Ilbo quoted an ROKG source as saying 
yesterday: "The ROKG believes that the most likely provocation by 
North Korea would be the firing of short-range missiles across the 
Northern Limit Line (NLL), (the de facto sea border between the two 
Koreas.)"  Chosun also quoted former Vice Defense Minister Park 
Yong-ok as speculating in a recent interview: "It would be difficult 
for North Korea to go for an all-out provocation.  However, it would 
be possible for the North to test the ROK and U.S. militaries." 
Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo, meanwhile, cited another ROKG source 
as saying yesterday: "North Korea would likely test-fire an upgraded 
version of the long-range Taepodong-2 missile which it tested in 
2006.  The reason we believe it to be an upgraded version is that 
the previous one ended in failure."  Conservative Dong-a Ilbo's 
inside-page report said that ROK and U.S. intelligence authorities 
suspect that the recent missile movements in North Korea might be 
related to the communist state's efforts to miniaturize its nuclear 
arsenal for placement on ballistic missiles.  The report went on to 
say: "If North Korea has made considerable progress on miniaturizing 
its nuclear warheads, there is a high possibility that North Korea 
might mount a 'mock warhead' on the Taepodong-2 missile before 
firing it."  Other newspapers, including moderate Hankook Ilbo, 
cited an ROKG source as saying: "Pyongyang may fire the Taepodong-2 
missile at an earlier time than the previously reported one to two 
months, because the regime is believed to have upgraded its 
technology since the 2006 test." 
 
Iraq - Provincial Election Results 
Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo's Senior Journalist Kim Young-hie 
opined: "There are four reasons to believe that the recent elections 
bode well for the future of Iraq.  First, the Sunnis had boycotted 
the 2005 elections, but this time many of them voted, helping find a 
balance in the distribution of power.  Second, Islamic political 
parties used to be strong and secular political parties weak, but 
this year it was the other way around, indicating the diminishing 
influence of Iran, which supported them, and of al-Qaeda.  Third, on 
the day of the election, the Iraqi army and police, not the U.S. 
military, headed security, and there was no major violence.  Fourth, 
young candidates, who have never sought asylum abroad, ran in the 
election, a good sign for the future leadership of the nation. 
However, there is still a very long way to go.  Iraq is surrounded 
by Iran, Syria and Jordan, and Jordan shares a border with Israel. 
Because of Iraq's geopolitical location, the U.S.' Iraq policy is 
directly linked to its instinct to protect Israel.  Iraqi issues are 
intertwined with issues of the Middle East region as a whole. 
Therefore, if there is no progress in negotiations for peace in 
Palestine, on Iran's nuclear program, or in talks between Syria and 
Israel on handing over the Golan Heights, no one knows how long it 
will take for the seed of peace in Iraq to sprout and bear fruit." 
 
U.S. Stimulus Bill 
The ROK media gave prominent play to the U.S. Senate's Feb. 4 vote 
to soften some of the controversial "Buy America" provisions in its 
economic stimulus bill.  Most of the ROK media expected that 
American trading partners, including the ROK and the EU, would 
likely be exempted from a strict requirement in the bill that all 
public works projects funded by the stimulus package use only 
U.S.-made iron, steel and manufactured goods.   Moderate Hankook 
Ilbo commented in an editorial: "However, the U.S has just watered 
down some of the provisions.  Furthermore, under this economic 
crisis, most countries are facing increasingly intense political 
pressure to protect their own businesses and jobs.  Thus, in all 
likelihood, similar disputes and conflicts will resurface any time 
and anywhere." 
 
Global Economy 
Conservative Chosun Ilbo noted that advanced countries, including 
the U.S. and the EU, are offering bailout funds to their banks on 
condition of increasing their domestic lending, and commented in an 
editorial: "In order to increase domestic lending amid the ongoing 
credit crunch, banks should reduce their foreign lending.  This will 
tighten the flow of money in the international financial market, 
which will, in turn, reduce international trade, making it difficult 
to turn around the global economy." 
 
 
Opinions/Editorials 
 
A Future for Iraq 
(JoongAng Ilbo, February 6, 2009, Page 27) 
 
By Senior Columnist Kim Young-hie 
 
There are several reasons to believe that the recent elections in 
Iraq bode well for the country's future. 
 
My heart aches when I think about Iraq. 
 
The country has the elements necessary to become a prosperous 
country in terms of economy, history and culture.  It's the only 
nation in the Middle East that has abundant water as well as oil. 
 
One of the four ancient river valley civilizations was developed in 
Mesopotamia, along with the Yellow River in China, the Nile River in 
Egypt and the Ganges in India.  Mesopotamian civilization developed 
along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in today's Iraq thanks to the 
fact that there was plentiful water, a scarce resource in the 
region. 
 
Mesopotamian civilization was the world's first, and has left a rich 
cultural heritage for subsequent generations that we continue to 
benefit from today.  Sumerians came to the area before 6000 B.C. and 
established a city state in southern Iraq, although it is not known 
where these people came from. 
 
Around 3200 B.C., they devised the earliest cuneiform script known 
to humankind.  The epic of Gilgamesh, the king of the Uruk Dynasty 
that was founded around 2800 B.C., is the earliest such work known 
to the world, and has been preserved on clay tablets until today. 
 
Qurna, a small town in southern Iraq, is believed by many to be the 
Garden of Eden, where Adam and Eve are said to have lived.  Another 
common claim is that Noah's flood in the Old Testament was in fact a 
deluge that wiped out the Mesopotamian region. 
 
Sumerian civilization merged into the Akkadian Empire that developed 
in northern Iraq, giving birth to Babylonia.  The Tower of Babel and 
the Code of Hammurabi, the world's earliest legal system, are the 
most well-known relics from Babylonian civilization. 
 
Relics from the ancient civilizations in Iraq are precious resources 
and serve as huge tourist attractions. 
 
Iraq has been blessed with water, oil and tourist attractions, but 
its politics had not caught up with its environmental attributes. 
Saddam Hussein's 35-year rule was pure tyranny.  He gassed tens of 
thousands of his people.  He waged an eight-year war against Iran 
based on his ambition of creating a Middle Eastern superpower.  He 
invaded Kuwait and was punished by the United States.  Throughout 
all this, the people suffered. 
 
Hussein's despotism ended in 2003 with the American invasion.  But 
under the United States' occupation, clashes among different 
religious denominations and ethnic groups have become commonplace in 
Iraq, instead of the peace through democracy that Washington had 
intended to create. 
 
It seemed as if there was no hope for the country. People worried 
that if the U.S. army withdrew by 2011 as Washington and Baghdad 
E 
agreed, a civil war would break out and the country would either be 
divided among the Shiites, the Sunnis and the Kurds, or only be held 
together in the form of a loose federation. 
 
The Jan. 31 local elections, however, eased such worries quite 
significantly.  In the elections for 444 officials for 14 of the 
country's 18 provinces, 1,400 candidates from 400 political parties 
ran.  The turnout rate was 51 percent. 
 
There are four reasons to believe that the recent elections bode 
well for the future of Iraq.  First, the Sunnis had boycotted the 
2005 elections, but this time many of them voted, helping to find a 
balance in the distribution of power. 
 
Second, Islamic political parties used to be strong and secular 
political parties weak, but this year it was the other way around. 
 
Third, on the day of the election, the Iraqi army and police, not 
the U.S. military, headed security, and there was no major violence. 
 
 
Fourth, young candidates who have never sought asylum abroad ran in 
the election, a good sign for the future leadership of the nation. 
 
The election results were good enough to give George W. Bush reasons 
to boast.  It has become easier for the Barack Obama Administration 
to plan a U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq.  The defeat of the 
Islamic political parties to some signals diminishing influence of 
Iran, which supported them, and of Al Qaeda. 
 
If the Iraqis' break from Islamic extremism and their determination 
to take part in the political process persists through to the 
December local elections, the seed for peace through democracy will 
finally be planted. 
 
If the country stabilizes, many Koreans will visit the ancient land 
of the Garden of Eden and the Tower of Babel.  If an economic 
resurgence begins in Iraq, Korean companies will do business with 
the country. 
 
However, there is still a very long way to go.  Iraq is surrounded 
by Iran, Syria and Jordan, and Jordan shares a border with Israel. 
Because of Iraq's geopolitical location, the United States' Iraq 
policy is directly linked to its instinct to protect Israel.  Iraqi 
issues are intertwined with issues of the Middle Eastern region as a 
whole. 
 
Therefore, if there is no progress in negotiations for peace in 
Palestine, on Iran's nuclear program, or in the talks between Syria 
and Israel on handing over Golan Heights, no one knows how long it 
will take for the seed of peace in Iraq to sprout and bear fruit. 
 
* This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is 
identical to the Korean version. 
 
 
Financial Protectionism Could Bring Second Crisis 
(Chosun Ilbo, February 6, 2009, Page 27) 
 
Rhee Chang-yong, the Vice Chairman of the Financial Services 
Commission, said on Thursday, banks could once again face shortages 
of foreign currency.  The dollar shortage that ensued as the global 
financial crisis hit in September could happen again, and although 
Rhee had expected it to be resolved between January and February, he 
now expects it to take longer.  Banks will have a difficult time 
boosting the amount of loans to small- and mid-sized companies as 
long as this problem remains unresolved. 
 
Rhee's comments are related to financial protectionist measures that 
are becoming evident in advanced countries.  The United States and 
Europe have extended financial aid to their banks on condition that 
they boost loans to domestic businesses.  And with the global credit 
crunch unresolved, the only way to boost domestic lending is to cut 
back on international loans.  That means cash flow in the global 
financial markets will be further constricted, leading to a decrease 
in trade and making it more difficult for the global economy to 
recover. 
 
Financial protectionism was the biggest issue at the recent World 
Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.  British Prime Minister Gordon 
Brown said the biggest threat to the global economy was the policies 
of financial protectionism and isolationism, which prohibit 
financial rescue funds from being spent overseas.  But even Brown is 
demanding that British banks expand loans to domestic companies. 
 
Newly industrialized economies will find it tougher to secure 
foreign capital as a result.  The Institute of International Finance 
forecasts that only US$165 billion in private capital will flow into 
newly industrialized country (NICs) this year, down 65 percent 
compared to last year's $466 billion.  Eastern Europe is expected to 
be hit hardest, with only $30 billion in foreign capital coming in 
this year, compared to $254 billion last year. 
 
In Korea's foreign exchange market, the signs have yet to show.  The 
Korea Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of Korea succeeded 
this year in issuing $2 billion worth of bonds overseas, almost 
resolving the dollar shortage here.  But if Eastern Europe and other 
NICs experience a foreign exchange crisis, then we may end up 
feeling the effects.  The government must bolster dollar reserves 
through state-run banks and public enterprises and closely monitor 
developments in international financial markets.  Banks cannot rely 
solely on government aid, but must try to resolve the dollar 
shortage on their own when they have the chance. 
 
* This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is 
identical to the Korean version. 
 
 
Even Though 'Buy America' Provisions Have Softened 
(Hankook Ilbo, February 6, 2009, Page 36) 
 
Yesterday, U.S. Senate came up with a diluted amendment to the 'Buy 
America' provisions in the $820 billion stimulus package, which is 
aimed to protect the U.S. steel industry.  This seems to ease 
escalating tensions over trade protectionism among the U.S., 
European Union (EU) and newly industrializing countries.  However, 
the U.S. merely watered down only some of the 'Buy America' 
provisions.   Moreover, most countries mired in the economic 
doldrums are facing more intense political pressure to protect their 
own business markets and jobs.  Thus, in all likelihood, similar 
disputes and conflicts will resurface any time and anywhere. 
 
The economic stimulus bill that was passed in the U.S. Congress on 
Jan. 28 mandates that all public works projects funded by the 
stimulus package use only U.S.-made steel and manufactured goods. 
Shortly after (passage of the bill), (the bill) sparked scathing 
criticism from the EU, Japan and Canada that the U.S. move breaches 
the spirit of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and is a suicidal 
act leading to collective destruction, and ignited an outright cry 
for retaliatory measures.  President Obama who vowed to abandon 
unilateralism and the world order of mutual respect, said 
persuasively, "In times of global economic downturn, we cannot send 
a protectionist message and look only after ourselves." 
 
President Lee Myung-bak, in a telephone conversation with President 
Obama, emphasized the U.S. role as a global leader, saying that the 
world economy should not forget the experiences and lessons from the 
first Great Depression.  Apparently as a result of these efforts 
against opposition from the steel industry and its laborers and 
legislators representing their interests, the U.S. Senate in a voice 
vote passed the Buy America amendment, saying that such provisions 
should be 'applied in a manner consistent with U.S. obligations 
under international agreements'. 
 
But this amendment will not lead to an entire uprooting of the seeds 
of enmity.  Wrangling over interpretation of the provisions may 
follow and the provisions may more extensively cover goods in other 
fields.  Furthermore, (other foreign) governments, knowingly or 
unknowingly, have put up trade barriers while warning against 
harmful trade protectionism.  Currency manipulation rows between the 
U.S. and China, and tariff and non-tariff barriers bolstered by 
newly industrializing countries reveal that a trade war has already 
begun.  This is an ominous situation for South Korea as an 
export-reliant country but could offer a chance to re-examine the 
global strategy of the government and businesses. 
 
 
Features 
 
N. Korea "Could Fire Missiles across Sea Border" 
(Chosun Ilbo, February 6, 2009, Page 5) 
 
By Reporter Ahn Yong-hyun 
 
The government believes that the most likely provocation during 
North Korea's current grandstanding could be the firing of missiles 
across the Northern Limit Line, the de facto sea border which 
Pyongyang refuses to recognize. 
 
Working-level officials from security ministries and agencies met 
behind closed doors on Jan 30, after the North's Committee for the 
Peaceful Unification of the Fatherland threatened military action. 
There they discussed the chances of the North firing missiles over 
the NLL as the most likely provocation, a government official said. 
The reason was that the North declared all political and military 
agreements reached between the two Koreas null and void while also 
mentioning the NLL, the official added. 
 
A maritime demarcation line off the west coast unilaterally 
announced by the North in 1999 runs far south of the NLL. 
"Pyongyang may use the logic that South Korean leaflets being sent 
to the North is on par with North Korea firing missiles at the 
South," the official said.  South Korean civic organizations this 
week said they will send North Korean won across the border on or 
around Feb. 16, the birthday of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, and 
the North could retaliate with some kind of military action. 
 
The North has a surface-to-surface missile base on Chodo island, 
Hwanghae Province, from which it test-fired missiles in October last 
year.  With a range of 100-120 km, they would have no problem 
reaching the NLL.  However, some observers raised concern that if a 
missile fired by the North simply to intimidate a South Korean 
squadron hits the South's squadron by accident, the situation will 
spin out of control. 
 
"We can prepare ourselves when signs of provocation like the firing 
of long-range Taepodong-2 missiles are monitored in advance.  But 
it's difficult to cope with abrupt firing of short-range missiles or 
a North Korean vessel firing missiles near the NLL," a security 
official said.  North Korean patrol vessels are equipped with 40 
km-range surface-to-surface missiles. 
 
North Korea could up the ante and fire mid-range missiles at the 
open sea near Jeju Island, but that is unlikely because it has to 
take China and other countries into consideration. 
 
* This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is 
identical to the Korean version. 
 
 
Stephens 
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