VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUL #0175/01 0350803
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 040803Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3128
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 8073
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC//DDI/OEA//
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//FPA//
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC//DB-Z//

UNCLAS SEOUL 000175 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/K, EAP/PD, INR/EAP/K AND INR/IL/P 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/WINGLE 
USDOC FOR 4430/IEP/OPB/EAP/WGOLICKE 
STATE PASS USDA ELECTRONICALLY FOR FAS/ITP 
STATE PASS DOL/ILAB SUDHA HALEY 
STATE PASS USTR FOR IVES/WEISEL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO PGOV PREL MARR ECON KS US
SUBJECT: PRESS BULLETIN - February 4, 2009 
 
Opinions/Editorials 
 
¶1. Will North Korea Again Test-fire Missiles? 
(Hankook Ilbo, February 4, 2009, Page 39) 
¶2. Seoul, Washington Must Stand Shoulder to Shoulder 
(Chosun Ilbo, February 4, 2009, Page 27) 
 
 
Features 
 
¶3. Lee, Obama Pledge Cooperation on N. Korea 
(Chosun Ilbo, February 4, 2009, Front Page) 
¶4. Is North Korea Choosing Missiles over Clashes at NLL? 
(Dong-a Ilbo, February 4, 2009, Page 4) 
 
Top Headlines 
 
Chosun Ilbo 
Foreign Investors Buying Korean Shares 
in Anticipation of Gains in Korean Currency 
 
JoongAng Ilbo, Dong-a Ilbo 
College Students Delay Graduation Due to Difficulties 
in Getting Jobs 
 
Hankook Ilbo 
IMF Predicts Minus 4 Percent Growth for ROK This Year, 
the Worst Figure Among G20 Countries 
 
Hankyoreh Shinmun 
Ruling Circles Decide to Shelve Plans to Ratify 
KORUS FTA in February 
 
Segye Ilbo 
Professors Using Research Funds for Personal Purposes 
 
Seoul Shinmun 
North Korea Preparing to Test Taepodong-2 
 
 
Domestic Developments 
 
¶1. During their Feb. 3 telephone conversation, the leaders of the 
ROK and the U.S., agreed to work together to verifiably denuclearize 
North Korea through the Six-Party Talks and to forge a stronger 
alliance between the two countries.  According to Blue House 
Spokesman Lee Dong-kwan, President Barack Obama said: "Countries 
around the world must resist the temptation to go back to trade 
protectionism."(All) 
 
¶2. According to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the number 
of Korean students studying in the U.S. reached 110,000 last year, 
the largest foreign student group in the U.S. for three years in a 
row. (JoongAng, Dong-a, MBC, OhmyNews) 
 
 
International News 
 
¶1. According to an ROKG source, ROK and U.S. intelligence 
authorities have recently spotted signs of North Korea preparing to 
test-fire a long-range Taepodong-2 missile that has a maximum range 
of 6,700 km and can hit Alaska with a light payload. Military 
intelligence officials were quoted as saying that it would take one 
or two months for North Korea to test-fire a Taepodong-2 missile, 
because it takes considerable time to assemble the first, second and 
third-stage rockets, set up the launch pad, and to fill the rockets 
with liquid fuel. (All) 
 
¶2. According to AP, Deputy State Department Spokesman Robert Wood 
criticized the North's move by saying: "North Korea's missile launch 
is of no help and frankly provocative." (Hankyoreh) 
 
¶3. Seven U.S. experts on North Korea arrived in Pyongyang yesterday 
in the first major civilian visit from Washington under the Obama 
Administration. (Hankoyreh, all TVs) 
Media Analysis 
 
North Korea 
The ROK media gave prominent coverage to possible missile launch 
preparations in North Korea.  An ROKG source was widely quoted as 
saying: "A U.S. reconnaissance satellite last week spotted a train 
carrying a large cylindrical object from a missile arsenal near 
Pyongyang to a test site in the country.  If the cylindrical object 
is a missile, there is a high possibility that it is Taepodong-2 
(that has a maximum range of 6,700 km and can hit Alaska with a 
light payload.)"  Military intelligence officials were also cited as 
saying: "It would take one or two months for North Korea to 
test-fire a Taepodong-2 missile, because it takes considerable time 
to assemble the first, second and third-stage rockets, set up the 
launch pad, and to fill the rockets with liquid fuel.  Left-leaning 
Hankyoreh Shinmun quoted Deputy State Department Spokesman Robert 
Wood as responding by stating: "North Korea's missile launch is of 
no help and frankly provocative." 
 
Most of the ROK media noted that the latest development comes amid 
growing tension on the Korean Peninsula, following a series of 
hostile statements by North Korea toward the ROK.  The ROK media 
cited local pundits as analyzing that Pyongyang is highly likely to 
fire a missile in order to prove its recent threats are not hollow 
and that a missile launch is an easier way for the North to do that 
than an armed clash on the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the de facto 
sea border between the two Koreas.  The ROK media also speculated 
that North Korea is likely to use its main missile launch site at 
Musudan-ri on the eastern coast - which was used to launch a 
Taepodong-1 missile in 1998 over Japan - for this missile launch, 
rather than a new site at Dongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province, 
given that the new site is still under construction. 
 
Conservative Chosun Ilbo editorialized: "North Korea, whenever 
launching long-range missiles, have staged 'political events.'  It 
test-fired the Taepodong-1 in August 1998 when the North's leader 
Kim Jong-il took charge after his father- the country's founder Kim 
Il-sung- died.  It also detonated a nuclear device three months 
after launching a Taepodong-2 in 2006.  Whatever the North might do 
this time, the ROK and the U.S. should be prepared for all possible 
scenarios and speak with one voice through close coordination." 
 
Moderate Hankook Ilbo stated in an editorial: "In 2006, North Korea 
succeeded in inducing the Bush Administration to change its North 
Korea policy by pushing for the launch of a Taepodong-2 missile and 
conducting a nuclear test.  In this regard, there is a high 
possibility that North Korean may be trying to draw attention to it 
and raise the stakes ahead of substantive negotiations with the 
Obama Administration.  However, if Pyongyang thinks that its 
saber-rattling will produce the results that it has intended, it is 
a serious miscalculation.  Instead such a move could arouse a strong 
repulsion by the international community and backfire on the 
North." 
 
Yesterday's telephone conversation between Presidents Lee Myung-bak 
and Barack Obama received wide attention. The two leaders were 
quoted as pledging to work together to verifiably denuclearize North 
Korea through the Six-Party Talks and to forge a stronger alliance 
between the two countries. 
 
 
Opinions/Editorials 
 
Will North Korea Again Test-fire Missiles? 
(Hankook Ilbo, February 4, 2009, Page 39) 
 
The ROK and U.S. intelligence authorities have reportedly spotted 
North Korea preparing for a missile launch.  If a missile is 
actually fired, it is highly likely to plunge the Korean Peninsula 
into an uncontrollable state of tension. 
 
Of course, we do not need to overreact to North Korea's move.  If 
what the North is preparing is a Taepodong-2 missile, it will take 
over one or two months to inject fuel into the missile and fire it. 
.  Therefore, the ROKG should respond calmly to this by establishing 
close cooperation with related countries. 
 
If North Korea pushes forward with a missile launch, it is not 
difficult to read its true intentions.  In 2006, North Korea 
succeeded in inducing the Bush Administration to change its North 
Korea policy by pushing for the launch of a Taepodong-2 ballistic 
missile and conducting a nuclear test in 2006.  This time, it seems 
highly probable that North Korea aims to call attention to the 
communist state and raise the stakes ahead of substantive 
negotiations with the Obama Administration. 
 
However, if the North Koreans think that their saber-rattling, such 
as missile launches, will produce the results that they have 
intended, it is a serious miscalculation.  Instead, Pyongyang's move 
may arouse a strong repulsion by the international community and 
backfire on the North.  Above all, Pyongyang should not forget that 
raising military tension on the Korean Peninsula will also do 
considerable harm to the North. 
 
 
Seoul, Washington Must Stand Shoulder to Shoulder 
(Chosun Ilbo, February 4, 2009, Page 27) 
 
South Korean and U.S. intelligence services have recently spotted a 
train carrying covered cylindrical objects loaded at a munitions 
factory to the missile base in Cholsan in North Korea's North 
Pyongan Province.  Judging from where the objects were loaded, their 
length and method of transportation, they are believed to be 
Taepodong-2 missiles.  The move comes as the Rodong Shinmun, a 
publication of the North Korean Workers' Party, on Tuesday again 
said inter-Korean relations are at the threshold of war. 
 
Taepodong-2 missiles have a range of up to 6,700 km, making them 
capable of reaching Alaska.  The U.S. has every cause for alarm.  A 
Taepodong-2 missile fired from Musudanri on the east coast in 2006 
crashed into the sea after 2 km, but Pyongyang has continued 
capacity tests ever since.  The preparations now are probably a 
demonstration intended to nudge the U.S. into direct negotiations. 
 
Even while threatening the South with war, the North on Monday urged 
Washington to talk about mutual nuclear disarmament. 
 
It may also be intended to test the Seoul-Washington alliance.  But 
U.S. President Barack Obama in a telephone conversation with 
President Lee Myung-bak on Tuesday said it is vital for the two 
countries to cooperate in resolving the North Korean nuclear problem 
through the Six-Party Talks, and that the insight the South Korean 
government demonstrated with regard into the nuclear issue provided 
a valuable lesson.  Obama, who stressed direct dialogue with the 
North during his campaign, has begun to open his ears to Seoul's 
North Korea policy. 
 
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is scheduled to visit Seoul this 
month.  It is important that the two countries share a common 
understanding of the North's recent actions through such a 
high-level dialogue and maintain consistency in future North Korea 
policies and in ways of dealing with North Korean provocations. 
 
North Korea has caused political incidents whenever it fired 
long-range missiles in the past.  In the wake of testing a 
Taepodong-1 missile in August 1998, the North formally abolished the 
presidential system, leaving Kim Jong-il solely in command.  Three 
months after the firing of a Taepodong-2 missile in July 2006, 
Pyongyang tested a nuclear device.  Whatever actions it may take 
this time, Seoul and Washington should strive to agree on all 
possible scenarios so that they can speak with the same voice. 
Whatever intentions North Korea may harbor, the two allies should 
not show the slightest crack in their response to North Korea. 
 
* This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is 
identical to the Korean version. 
 
 
Features 
Lee, Obama Pledge Cooperation on N. Korea 
(Chosun Ilbo, February 4, 2009, Front Page) 
 
By Reporter Joo Yong-joong and Washington Correspondent Lee Ha-won 
 
U.S. President Barack Obama agreed with President Lee Myung-bak by 
phone on Tuesday to cooperate closely through the Six-Party Talks 
and the bilateral alliance to dismantle North Korea's nuclear 
weapons and programs in a verifiable way, according to White House 
spokesman Robert Gibbs. 
 
This suggests that Obama is inclined to stick to due process rather 
than agreeing to North Korea's recent calls for nuclear disarmament 
talks or normalizing U.S.-North Korean relations before dismantling 
its nuclear weapons. 
 
Obama was quoted by Cheong Wa Dae Spokesperson Lee Dong-kwan as 
saying that he came to understand it would be possible to 
denuclearize the Korean Peninsula at an early date by strengthening 
cooperation among nations taking part in the Six-Party Talks and 
that the insight shown by the ROKG became a valuable lesson.  In 
response, President Lee appreciated the new USG's demonstration of a 
strong resolve regarding the North Korean nuclear issue. 
 
President Lee stated, "As a fan of the Pittsburgh Steelers, I was 
pleased that the team won the Super Bowl yesterday.  Doesn't Korean 
(-American) Hines Ward play for the Steelers?" and President Obama 
also said, "I am also a fan of the team."  When President Lee 
remarked, "I hope that the U.S. economy makes a comeback as the 
Steelers did to win the championship," President Obama said with a 
big laugh, "Thank you." 
 
* We have compared the English version on the website with the 
Korean version and added some sentences to make them identical. 
 
 
Is North Korea Choosing Missiles over Clashes at NLL? 
(Dong-a Ilbo, February 4, 2009, Page 4) 
 
By reporter Yun Sang-ho and Kim Young-sik 
 
After a string of recent menacing rhetoric from the spokesman for 
the Chief of General Staff of the Korean People's Army and the 
North's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fartherland, 
North Korea is gearing up to test-fire a long-range ballistic 
missile.  This move by North Korea is apparently aimed at placing 
more pressure on ROK through heightened military tensions and to 
elicit attention from the Obama Administration. 
 
North Korea's ulterior motive behind missile card 
 
In statements to ROK on Jan. 17 by the spokesman for the Chief of 
General Staff of the Korean People's Army and on Jan. 30 by the 
North's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, 
North Korea announced the waging of an all-out confrontation against 
ROK and nullify all political and military agreements, while calling 
for scrapping of the Northern Limited Line (NLL). 
 
Later, it was observed at home and abroad that North Korea would 
stage military action near the NLL around the May-June crab-catching 
season as it did in the past. 
 
However, North Korea has little chance of success in a military 
standoff with the South Korean navy, equipped with the state-of-art 
Aegis destroyer and next-generation high-speed vessels.  Moreover, 
such provocation would backfire domestically and internationally if 
North Korea is defeated.  Accordingly, for now, North Korean 
high-ranking officials have seemed to roll back its 'NLL card'. 
Instead, North Korea is sending a signal of the possible firing of a 
Daepodong-2 missile to attract international attention from the U.S. 
while evading direct clashes. 
 
Site of missile testing and countermeasures by ROK, the U.S. and 
Japan 
 
A Japanese media agency pointed out on the same day that a sign of 
missile testing by North Korea was spotted at Dongchang-ri base, 
Cheolsan-gun, Pyungbuk province.  But a high-ranking ROK government 
official denied the report, saying, "It was not Dongchang-ri but 
another long-range missile base where signs of missile testing were 
detected." 
 
The ROKG has been keenly alert to the Dongchang-ri base since it is 
larger than the Musudan-ri base and has enhanced launching 
facilities such as an engine test bed and fuel injection equipment. 
Yet, the Dongchang-ri base has not yet been completed and thus is 
not fully capable of launching a missile. 
E 
Reportedly, a U.S. spy satellite detected missile testing at 
Musudan-ri base, Hwadae-gun, Hambuk province.  In July 2006, North 
Korea fired a Daepodong-2 missile from Musudan-ri base; however, the 
missile crashed into the Eastern Sea 42 seconds later. 
 
ROK and the U.S. intelligence authorities have deployed a KH-12 spy 
satellite and RC-135 aerial vehicle to closely track signs of 
test-firing including military developments around the missile base. 
 Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura said, "With great 
interests, we are making all efforts to gather information." 
 
North Korea is stepping up attempts to draw attention 
 
Experts say that North Korea's move to test-fire a long-range 
missile is designed to flaunt that words can lead to action.  Also, 
this indicates North Korea's discontent with the no reaction policy 
taken by the ROK and the U.S. despite Pyongyang's continued 
escalation of tensions. 
 
Professor Kim Sung-han at the Graduate School of International 
Studies in Korea University analyzes that North Korea's move came 
from its unsettling recognition that the North Korean issues appear 
to be lower priorities in the diplomatic security policy of the U.S. 
and ROKG. 
 
In particular, North Korea's accelerated saber-rattling move since 
the inauguration of the Obama Administration is similar to that in 
1993 when the Clinton Administration took office.  North Korea aims 
to provoke tensions around the time of inauguration of the new U.S. 
administration to extract great compromise from the U.S. Professor 
Yun Deok Min at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National 
Security said, "North Korea's recent move is similar to that made 
during the early stage of the Clinton Administration; North Korea 
declared withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), 
fired a Rodong missile and then successfully pushed for U.S. and 
North Korea high-level talks. 
 
At that time, the Clinton Administration was willing to negotiate 
with North Korea, but the Kim Young-sam government was hard-lined 
against North Korea.  In a similar manner, the Obama Administration 
appears open to the possibility of talking with North, while the Lee 
Myung-bak government keeps a conservative stance toward North Korea. 
 
 
However, the overriding opinion is that the U.S. government is 
unlikely to be lured into such tricks by North Korea since the U.S. 
received criticism for the Geneva Agreement in which the U.S. agreed 
to provide a light water reactor after North Korea's repeated 
maneuvers. 
 
 
Stephens 
1