VZCZCXYZ0007
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #0107 0512116
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 202116Z FEB 09
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8973
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 0128
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 9038

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000107 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP XM XR XF BR
SUBJECT: Media Reaction Sao Paulo February 17 2009 
 
Media Reaction: Global Economy:  Financial market crisis; 
protectionism; Western Hemisphere: Venezuela, Chvez, re-election 
referendum; Global Economy: Financial Market crisis; Sao Paulo. 
 
Title- Limits to Chavez 
 
Editorial in liberal Folha de S. Paulo (2-17) states: "....With the 
turnaround of [oil] prices, the [Venezuela's] populist government is 
left with few sources to avoid a sensitive and rapid drop in 
Venezuelan's level of [consumer] consumption.  In this context, an 
in front of a refortified and active opposition, it is probable that 
Hugo Chavez's comfort diminishes a lot from now on, regardless of 
Sunday's victory." 
 
Title- Caribbean Messiah 
 
Op-Ed in liberal Folha de S. Paulo (2-17) by Clovis Rossi says: 
"....the messiahnism in politics always ends up in tragedy - either 
in a prolonged messiah dictatorship or in its collapse....if [the 
opposition] wants to defeat Chavez in 2012 - only the possibility of 
reelection was approved, not its obligation - it will have to 
demonstrate to the deposed that, beyond "messiah", the system will 
take care of them." 
 
Title- The Joke is over 
 
Op-Ed in liberal Folha de S. Paulo (2-17) by Eliane Catanhede 
states: "Now, the joke's over and he [President Hugo Chavez] will 
have to sit in his chair and do the most difficult thing, besides 
being also the most boring one: govern.....With the oil price 
dropping by half, around US$44, US$45, things change [the ability to 
offer] friendly bonding packages inside and outside of Venezuela on 
the circuit that includes Cuba, Paraguay, Bolivia and Ecuador [will 
be difficult]." 
 
Title- The Cost of Victory 
 
Editorial in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (2-17) says: "Until a 
month before the referendum, all opinion polls indicated that the 
unlimited reelection [of the president] would be rejected.....Hugo 
Chavez reversed this trend, using all the means at his 
disposal....all this, evidently, will have  cost for Hugo Chavez. 
The referendum proved, once more, that his permanence in power owes 
itself to a combination of the use of force and populists measures. 
Without the unlimited access to financial resources from the State, 
he is not invincible at the ballot-box.  The economic and fiscal 
crisis Venezuela is going through....can shorten the Bolivarian 
adventure." 
 
Title- Not Even the pessimists were right 
 
Editorial in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (2-17) says: 
"Pessimists were wrong for years, estimating the end of global 
prosperity in the months ahead [at that time].  Now prosperity is 
over and they were wrong again.  The international scene each day 
shows itself much worse than what they predicted last year, when 
[the world] acknowledged for the first time in a long time the risk 
of a global recession.....Indeed, Brazil is so far one of the least 
affected by the crisis.  It has better conditions than the majority 
[of nations] to avoid an internal deepening of its effects. 
Nonetheless, for this to happen, the government would need to get 
away from the stage, abandon its small stimulus packages to chosen 
sectors and think on fiscal and financial measures compatible with 
the size of the problem." 
WHITE