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RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHRO #0192/01 0491727
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 181727Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1635
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHFL/AMCONSUL FLORENCE 3472
RUEHMIL/AMCONSUL MILAN 9854
RUEHNP/AMCONSUL NAPLES 3645

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000192 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL IT
SUBJECT: VELTRONI RESIGNS, PD ON LIFE SUPPORT 
 
REF: A. A 08 ROME 01192 
     ¶B. B 08 ROME 001279 
 
ROME 00000192  001.2 OF 002 

 
Classified By: A/POL J. Liam Wasley for reasons 1.4(b) and 1.4(d). 
 



Summary 
- - - - 
¶1. (C) The opposition Democratic Party (PD) could ultimately 
face fracture after party leader Walter Veltroni stepped down 
yesterday citing the February 15-16 defeat in regional 
elections in Sardinia. Veltroni's resignation leaves PD 
flat-footed in advance of the European Parliament elections 
in June. While many PD officials and leaders had been looking 
beyond Veltroni since he led the party to defeat in last 
year's national elections, no one wanted him to resign before 
the European elections. PD now faces the prospect of having 
to reorganize under a new leadership before elections that 
many of our PD contacts are expecting to go badly. PD 
politicians with ambitions to become prime minister will be 
wary to take the helm at this point, and some contacts are 
predicting the PD could split up before the European 
elections. Veltroni's resignation is not an unqualified 
victory for the center right, which now lacks the 
interlocutor it needs to pass key structural reforms in the 
Parliament. End Summary 
 


Next Steps for the PD 
- - - - - - - - - - 

¶2. (C) Tired of being the whipping boy for PD's losses, 
Veltroni decided to leave after the big February 15-16 defeat 
in Sardinia and the defeat of his candidate in the Florence 
mayoral primary rather than having to absorb the expected 
loss in the European elections in June. Had he not left on 
his own accord, Veltroni may well have faced the prospect of 
being forced out in the planned party congress this fall. His 
early exit surprised his attackers, and leaves PD officials 
and politicians wondering how the party will manage to right 
itself. PD announced that on Saturday the party will decide 
whether to choose an interim leader or hold an early party 
congress. It is too early for serious hypotheses for 
Veltroni's successor to be circulating. PD's gloomy prospects 
in the June elections may cause leading contenders for future 
party leadership such as Pierluigi Bersani and Enrico Letta 
to put these ambitions on hold until the party is in a 
somewhat better position. PD may have a caretaker leader for 
several months until a permanent solution can be found. Until 
a decision is made on a long-term caretaker or a new 
leadership race, Dario Franceschini--Veltroni's deputy with a 
background in Catholic movements on the center left--will run 
the party. 
 


¶3. (C) Many PD heavyweights were never convinced that a 
single party on the center left would ever manage a victory. 
(Ref A) These colonels continued to run their own wings of 
the party and withheld their full support from Veltroni. The 
center-left's poor performance in last year's national 
elections and then the beatings it took in the regional 
elections in Abruzzo and Sardinia have further convinced 
these elements that a broad center left coalition rather than 
a single party would be more competitive with the center 
right. (Ref B) The leading exponent of this strategy is 
former Prime Minister Massimo D'Alema, and he is best 
positioned to be the kingmaker for new leadership on the 
center left. For months PD contacts have been telling us that 
D'Alema would like to eliminate the internal tension in the 
party by allowing the Catholic wing commanded by Francesco 
Rutelli to leave the party and instead form a coalition with 
the rump PD. At the same time, we have heard that Rutelli is 
deeply unhappy with the PD and feels marginalized. A contact 
in Pierferdinando Casini's Catholic party Union of the Center 
told PolOff today that Rutelli is constantly weighing the 
possibility of joining Casini. It is an open question whether 
a new PD leader will manage to keep these different forces 
together before the European elections. 
 


No Interlocutor for the Center Right 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

¶4. (C) As leader of the opposition with a shadow cabinet, 
Veltroni had been an interlocutor for the center right on a 
range of reforms that can be passed more easily with 
bipartisan support. These included judicial reform and 
parliamentary procedure reform. Without Veltroni in power and 
with a deeper crisis in PD, the center right lacks an 
interlocutor. A center-right journalist told PolOff that this 
will lead to gridlock on some of these reforms, and could 
spark more squabbling within the center right as it will have 
no need to present a common front against the center left. 
Thus far neither privately nor in the press have center right 
contacts expressed schadenfreude for the demise of Veltroni, 
indicating that it was in the center-right's interests to 
 
ROME 00000192  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
have a clear--albeit weak--PD leader. 
 


Comment 
- - - - 

¶5. (C) The most likely scenario that PD contacts are 
discussing is a return to some sort of center left coalition 
with a rump PD still bigger than any center left party in the 
past, but in alliance with a far left party and a center 
Catholic party. It is not clear how long it will take PD to 
reorganize. The party congress was expected to take place in 
October, and the selection of a new leader would have to be 
done through the same sort of primary that selected Veltroni 
in 2007. That timetable will probably be accelerated, but 
until PD leadership makes these decisions--probably over the 
weekend--the timing of the next steps for PD is unclear. With 
Veltroni no longer able to stomach PD's deep divisions and 
repeated anemic electoral performances, Italy's major 
opposition party is without a leader or a clear future. End 
Comment. 
 
DIBBLE 
"