VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHRB #0124 0401417
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 091417Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY RABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9656
INFO RUCNMGH/MAGHREB COLLECTIVE
RUEHCL/AMCONSUL CASABLANCA 4488
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS RABAT 000124 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EAGR SOCI MO
SUBJECT: FLOODS RAVAGE MOROCCO'S NORTH, BUT AGRICULTURE 
LIKELY SPARED 
 
REF: RABAT 119 
 
 ¶1. (U) Summary.  Early and sustained rains have recharged 
reservoirs and raised hopes of good 2009 harvests.  The rosy 
agricultural output projections are one of the few bright 
spots in Morocco's 2009 GDP growth outlook. 
The unusually high level of precipitation has caused flood 
damage in parts of the Kingdom, and analysts are beginning to 
warn of danger to the 2009 harvest if the heavy rains 
continue.  Current damage, however, is unlikely to 
substantially impact a good grain harvest.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) Moroccans uniformly welcomed the early and heavy 
rains that have darkened skies across the Kingdom all winter 
following a decade of below-normal rainfall and droughts. 
Cumulative rainfall from September to January totalled 372 
mm, about four times the level of the prior year.  Aquifers 
and reservoirs have benefitted from the rain, with reservoirs 
at an average of 68 percent capacity compared to 46 percent 
one year previously.  The early rain has led Government of 
Morocco (GOM) forecasters to project agricultural growth of 
22 percent in 2009, making it the star performer in Morocco's 
GDP outlook (Reftel).  (Note: The agricultural sector 
accounts for nearly 15 percent of GDP.  End Note.) 
 
¶3.  (U) A ten day span of heavy rain beginning at the end of 
January was nevertheless too much for some regions of 
Morocco.  In northwestern regions, reservoirs have reached 
maximum capacity, forcing dams to open floodgates.  The 
resulting river flooding has killed at least two dozen 
people, displaced over 5,000 others, destroyed hundreds of 
homes, and submerged nearly 200 factories.  In the Gharb 
region of the northern Atlantic coast, one of Morocco's 
agricultural breadbaskets, authorities estimate that 80,000 
hectares of farmland have been flooded (nearly 20 percent of 
the region's cultivated land), of which 15,000 hectares have 
been considered definitively lost for production.  However, 
the total flooded land remains a small fraction of Morocco's 
five million hectares of cultivated land.  The Ministry of 
Agriculture had created a USD 12 million fund to respond to 
flood damages in agriculture (principally to repair damaged 
irrigation waterworks and compensate flooded farmers) in 
response to episodes of heavy rain in December, but has not 
announced further actions following the more recent flooding. 
 
¶4.  (U) On a February 4-6 visit to mountainous areas of the 
Middle Atlas region of Morocco, Poloff noted rain and 
snowfall effects ranging from flooded fields and road damage 
to completely impassable routes.  The rains have provided 
ample fodder for livestock, but have also made harvest from 
vegetable fields difficult or impossible, resulting in local 
scarcity and elevated prices of produce.  Inhabitants 
informed Poloff that the rains had been generally good for 
the local water table, but the flooding had in many cases 
caused contamination of drinking water from silt or 
overflowing sewage. 
 
Comment: Here Comes the Sun 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) FAS contacts in the Ministry of Agriculture remain 
reluctant to make any predictions of the impact of the 
flooding on 2009 agricultural output.  However, Post 
estimates that the limited flooding thus far will not 
significantly degrade the total grain harvest, along with its 
important contribution to GDP.  The sun is shining again 
across Morocco, and forecasts call for more moderate weather 
for the rest of the month.  (Note. The rainy season in 
Northern Morocco typically extends through March or April). 
 
 
***************************************** 
Visit Embassy Rabat's Classified Website; 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/rabat 
***************************************** 
 
Jackson