VZCZCXYZ0021
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHZP #0156/01 0542019
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 232019Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
TO RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3029

UNCLAS PANAMA 000156 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA: MARTINELLI MAINTAINS LEAD BUT LOSES GROUND 
TO HERRERA 
 
------- 
Summary 
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¶1.  Democratic Change (CD) opposition presidential candidate 
Ricardo Martinelli lost six points in the polls, shortly 
after naming former Panamenista Party presidential candidate 
Juan Carlos Varela as his vice presidential running mate and 
thereby cementing a grand opposition "Alliance For Change" 
movement, according to Dichter and Neira's presidential poll 
for the week of February 15.  Martinelli still maintained a 
12 point lead over Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) 
candidate Balbina Herrera, whose stalled campaign appeared to 
have been kick started, rallying for a five point gain since 
February 1. Martinelli probably also took a hit for not 
participating in a debate hosted by a television broadcaster 
on February 10; Herrera "debated" solo responding to 
questions from journalists.  Former President Guillermo 
Endara, heading his Moral Vanguard for the Nation (MVN) 
party's ticket, stubbornly remains in the race but is trapped 
in no man's land at five percent and received fewer votes 
than the number of mock ballots left blank in Dichter and 
Neira's poll.  For all intents and purposes, Panama now has a 
head-to-head race for its presidency. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Momentum Shifts As Martinelli Loses Ground 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  When asked who they would vote for if the 2009 elections 
were held today, 49 percent of respondents to Dichter and 
Neira's latest presidential poll said they supported 
opposition candidate Martinelli and 37 percent said they 
supported ruling party candidate Herrera.  Herrera has gained 
five points since February 1, climbing slowly from 32 percent 
of voter preference the first week to 33 percent the next, 
then gaining steam to finish with 37 percent last week, her 
highest numbers since January.  Opposition golden boy 
Martinelli lost six points, falling from 55 percent in the 
first week of February to 53 percent the next, and dropping 
still further to 49 percent in the week of February 15, as 
some voters clearly migrated to the Herrera camp.  It remains 
to be seen whether the latest numbers reflected a momentary 
dip in the polls for Martinelli or signalled the beginning of 
a downward trend. Martinelli's dip in the polls as well as 
Herrera's gradual ascent came in the wake of Martinelli's 
formation of a grand opposition "Alliance for Change" and his 
refusal to debate Herrera on February 10; Herrera "debated" 
solo responding to journalists' questions. 
 
¶3.  Contrary to Dichter and Neira's more recent data, the 
three other monthly polls indicated that Martinelli pulled 
further ahead of Herrera in February, but only by three to 
five points.  The three other polls also showed that Herrera 
gained from three to five percent of voter preference in the 
last month: According to IPSOS, Martinelli now leads by 17 
points, up from a 12 point lead in January.  Martinelli 
gained ten points to win 51 percent of voter preference and 
Herrera gained five points to capture 34 percent of voter 
preference. (Polling took place February 6 to 8 and included 
1,040 people.  The margin of error was three percent.) 
According to SigmaDos, Martinelli led by a more modest eight 
points in February, up from a five point lead in January. 
SigmaDos gave Martinelli 48 percent of voter preference, 
representing a six point gain from January, while Herrera 
garnered 40 percent, a three point gain for her from the 
previous month.  (The poll included 1,428 people and had a 
margin of error of 2.6 percent.)  According to Unimer, 
Martinelli led by 22 points in February, up from 18 points in 
January.  Unimer gave Martinelli 50 percent of voter 
preference, up seven points from January, and Herrera held 
28.5 percent of voter preference, up three points from 
January.  (Polling took place February 4 to 6 and included 
2,500 people.  The margin of error was 2.8 percent.) 
 
--------------------------- 
Herrera Base Remains Strong 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4.  Herrera has maintained the strongest base of committed 
voters since Dichter and Neira's polling began in January. 
In the latest poll for the week of February 15, when asked 
who they would vote for if elections were held today, 31 
percent of PRD party members said they would vote for 
Herrera, while 25 percent of CD party members would vote for 
Martinelli.  Herrera also rallied the highest number of 
 
committed voters according to the SigmaDos monthly poll, 
where of those who support Herrera, 91 percent said they 
would definitely vote for her.  Of those who support 
Martinelli, 86 percent said they would definitely vote for 
him.  When asked in the second week of February if they 
believed that the National Assembly would be dominated by the 
parties that supported Herrera or the parties that supported 
Martinelli, 40.3 percent stated that the parties that 
supported Herrera would dominate, while only 33.8 percent 
stated it would be parties who supported Martinelli. 
 
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Effect of Varela as VP Pick 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5.  Martinelli's selection of former presidential candidate 
Juan Carlos Varela of the Panamenista Party (PP) as his 
vice-presidential running mate appeared to give him an 
initial boost in the Dichter and Neira poll, taking him from 
46 percent of voter preference in the last week of January to 
55 percent in the first week of February, representing a nine 
point gain.  However, Martinelli's numbers have steadily 
declined since then, indicating that voters may not view the 
alliance favorably on further reflection.  In the first week 
of February, when asked if an alliance between CD and 
Panamenista Party was intended to benefit the country or was 
an electoral strategy to win votes, 50.8 percent of 
respondents felt that it was a strategy to win votes.  In the 
most recent Dichter and Neira poll for the week of February 
15, the same period corresponding to a four point drop in 
voter preference for Martinelli, when asked whether they 
believed that political alliances were principally for the 
benefit of the country or the politicians, 61.4 percent said 
that they were for the benefit of the politicians.  There was 
no significant boost in numbers as a result of the 
Panamenista Party joining the CD, the Patriotic Union (UP), 
and Movement of Liberal Republican Nationals (MOLIRENA) in 
the Martinelli-led "Alliance for Change."  Dichter and Neira 
showed a six point loss and, according to the monthly polls, 
Martinelli made a modest three to five point gain over 
Herrera from January to February. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Importance of Candidate Platform 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  When asked in the second week of February whether the 
candidates' platforms were important or irrelevant when 
voting, a whopping 85.7 percent of those polled responded 
that they were indeed important.  This sentiment on the part 
of voters may have played into Martinelli's recent six point 
slide.  Martinelli's refusal to participate in the February 
10 presidential debate gave Balbina Herrera an hour of prime 
time media coverage to sell her platform, and was viewed by 
320,000 Panamanians.  Just after the debate, according to the 
Dichter and Neira poll for the week of February 15, when 
asked whether they approved or disapproved of Martinelli's 
failure to participate in the debate, 66.3 percent of voters 
indicated their disapproval; voter preference for Martinelli 
dropped another four points during this time. 
 
------------------ 
The Navarro Effect 
------------------ 
 
¶7.  When asked in the second week of February whether they 
believed that criticism of incumbent President Martin 
Torrijos by Herrera's VP running mate and PRD National 
Executive Committee (CEN) member Juan Carlos Navarro helped 
or hurt Herrera's presidential ambitions, 70 percent of 
respondents stated that the criticism had a negative effect. 
Interestingly, when asked the following week who in the PRD 
party would be in the best position to unify the PRD after 
the elections, 31.6 percent of respondents felt it would be 
Herrera, while a virtually equal number felt that Juan Carlos 
Navarro would be a better unifier, at 31.2 percent. 
 
------------------ 
Voters Pessimistic 
------------------ 
 
¶8.  When asked in the second week of February whether the 
country was or was not on a good path, 64.4 percent of 
respondents felt that Panama was not on a good path, while 
only 29.8 percent felt that the country was headed in the 
right direction. 
 
 
-------------- 
Technical Data 
-------------- 
 
¶9. Third Dichter and Neira February poll:  Dichter and Neira 
conducted 1,226 interviews of men and women over the age of 
18 who are residents of Panama.  The poll was conducted 
nationally, except in the remote and difficult to reach 
Darien Province and indigenous people's autonomous regions 
(comarcas).  Interviews were conducted face-to-face in 
individuals' homes from Friday, February 13 to Sunday, 
February 15.  Sampling was multi-staged.  The first stage 
distributed the total sample according to population by 
province as well as rural and urban precincts, and in the 
second stage blocks were randomly selected and homes were 
first randomly and then systematically selected.  The margin 
of error for the poll was assessed at  /- 2.9 percent with a 
confidence level of 
95 percent. 
 
¶10. Second Dichter and Neira February poll:  Dichter and 
Neira conducted 1,229 interviews of men and women over the 
age of 18 who are residents of Panama.  The poll was 
conducted nationally, except in the remote and difficult to 
reach Darien Province and indigenous people's autonomous 
regions (comarcas).  Interviews were conducted face-to-face 
in individuals' homes from Friday, February 6 to Sunday, 
February 8.  Sampling was multi-staged.  The first stage 
distributed the total sample according to population by 
province as well as rural and urban precincts, and in the 
second stage blocks were randomly selected and homes were 
first randomly and then systematically selected.  The margin 
of error for the poll was assessed at  /- 2.9 percent with a 
confidence level of 95 percent. 
STEPHENSON